Guy Threepwood wrote:
[
Replying to post 305 by Clownboat]
It's about deducing the probability of chance v ID, not the person - but no problem, let's remove that distraction!
You are flying over a deserted island, no sign of any person having ever been there.
In fact it's radioactive, heavily guarded, anyone trying to land is shot on sight
But you see 'HELP' spelled out in rocks on the beach.
Did the waves wash them up that way by chance? or do you suspect that somehow, someway it is the act of creative intelligence?
why?
Same thing right? we must
prove an impossible negative, that it couldn't possibly have been the work of creative intelligence, before we would dream of being forced to accept the improbability of random chance achieving this.
Sorry, I'm a few posts behind, but Clownboat has been asking exactly what I would ask.
Let's break your above down and see if we can understand each other.
You are flying over a deserted island, no sign of any person having ever been there.
Ok, I'm flying over an island and you say there's no sign of any person. Got it, barren island, nothing man made or disturbed by human activity is visible.
In fact it's radioactive, heavily guarded, anyone trying to land is shot on sight
Hold on. First, how do I know it's radioactive? Do I have a geiger counter on the airplane that's going off? Let's say I do. Ok, radioactive island. How did it get that way? Isn't that a sign of human activity? Maybe not, let's continue.
Heavily guarded? I thought there was no sign of any person being there. Where are the guards? You just changed a deserted island with no sign of human activity to one with guards and radioactivity.
But you see 'HELP' spelled out in rocks on the beach.
Um, 'HELP' is a definite sign of people so I would not think the island is deserted anymore. That and the guards. And maybe the radioactivity. Sounds like a lovely place to vacation.
Did the waves wash them up that way by chance? or do you suspect that somehow, someway it is the act of creative intelligence?
I would expect that either there is someone in need of help on the island (it is radioactive and surrounded by trigger happy guards apparently) or one of the guards did it to lure me in and shoot me down.
Why do I think this? Because only people know how to spell help with rocks.
How does this relate to a non observable god? Did this god do something we've witnessed a god doing before? I've seen people spell stuff with all kinds of things, so I know a person likely did it. The waves doing it is possible, but highly unlikely.
I'm lost how your analogy relates to a god.