Is Talking About Probabilities Useful Here?

[PeterCarlington]

As an agnostic, I would say that there is less than a 5% chance that there is a God as described in the Bible.

On the other hand, I have a colleague who is 100% sure that Jesus is the son of God and that the Bible is fully accurate. I once asked him if he would concede that there is even a one-in-a-million chance that the God he believes in does not exist, and he said " No " God has directly revealed Himself to me. I am 100% sure.

For argument purposes, is it useful to talk in terms of percentages?
- How many Christians have this 100% certainty that their God exits? How many, if asked, would say there is an 80% chance, or a 60% chance? Can you be called a -true Christian if you say that there is anything less than a 100% chance?
- Does being an atheist mean that you assert that there is a 0% chance that the Christian God exists?
-Does being an agnostic mean that you put the chance as less than 100%, but more than 0%?
- I talk about a 5% chance that the Biblical God exists, but how sensible is that? Why not 3% or 27%?
- Is talking about percentages (or odds) useful in the debate about God?I

[Goat]

As an agnostic, I would say that there is less than a 5% chance that there is a God as described in the Bible.

On the other hand, I have a colleague who is 100% sure that Jesus is the son of God and that the Bible is fully accurate. I once asked him if he would concede that there is even a one-in-a-million chance that the God he believes in does not exist, and he said " No " God has directly revealed Himself to me. I am 100% sure.

For argument purposes, is it useful to talk in terms of percentages?
- How many Christians have this 100% certainty that their God exits? How many, if asked, would say there is an 80% chance, or a 60% chance? Can you be called a -true Christian if you say that there is anything less than a 100% chance?
- Does being an atheist mean that you assert that there is a 0% chance that the Christian God exists?
-Does being an agnostic mean that you put the chance as less than 100%, but more than 0%?
- I talk about a 5% chance that the Biblical God exists, but how sensible is that? Why not 3% or 27%?
- Is talking about percentages (or odds) useful in the debate about God?I

Not at all. 'argument from probability' is one of the most silly arguments people make. It mostly is misused to argue against evolution, or the big bang, or abiogenses. No one knows the factors, or how probably anything would be.. but a lot of people pull huge numbers out of the air, and think it has meaning.


I buy a lottery ticket every week. There are two possible outcomes,,.. I either win or I lose.. therefor I have a 50/50 chance of winning!

[100%atheist]

For argument purposes, is it useful to talk in terms of percentages?
- How many Christians have this 100% certainty that their God exits? How many, if asked, would say there is an 80% chance, or a 60% chance?

It doesn't matter because one can be an agnostic theist and, while sharing believe in Jesus with other Christians, be unsure (up to completely unsure) if a god exists.

Can you be called a -true Christian if you say that there is anything less than a 100% chance?

TrueChristian is a mystical animal. If you believe that you found a church full of TrueChristians, then just cross the street and ask people in another Christian church if they share your excitment of finding TrueChristians in their neighbor-Church.

- Does being an atheist mean that you assert that there is a 0% chance that the Christian God exists?

Not necessarily so. Most atheists are agnostic atheists and they make no positive statments about god existence. However, it is realtively easy to take a position that the God of the Bible does not exist [for example, read the first page of the Bible about creation and find that one can't create stars in a few days. And even if one would manage to do just that, it would take some billions of years for the light from stars to reach Earth. And so on...]

-Does being an agnostic mean that you put the chance as less than 100%, but more than 0%?

Probably this is correct. I am not sure though what you base your scale on.

- I talk about a 5% chance that the Biblical God exists, but how sensible is that? Why not 3% or 27%?

Who do you ask?

- Is talking about percentages (or odds) useful in the debate about God?I

I think that the percentage scale is miningless. As an agnostic, you just don't know if a deity exists. How strongly you sure about deity's existence is another questions and I don't know how to put it on any percentile scale.

Also you can read about atheist/theist and agnostic/gnostic definitions at atheism.about.com (http://atheism.about.com/od/aboutagnost ... theism.htm)

[JoeyKnothead]

From the OP:

Is talking about probabilites useful here?

I'll lay ya 10 to 1 it ain't

I refer folks to Goat's excellent Post 2.

[Mithrae]

As an agnostic, I would say that there is less than a 5% chance that there is a God as described in the Bible.

On the other hand, I have a colleague who is 100% sure that Jesus is the son of God and that the Bible is fully accurate. I once asked him if he would concede that there is even a one-in-a-million chance that the God he believes in does not exist, and he said " No " God has directly revealed Himself to me. I am 100% sure.

For argument purposes, is it useful to talk in terms of percentages?
- How many Christians have this 100% certainty that their God exits? How many, if asked, would say there is an 80% chance, or a 60% chance? Can you be called a -true Christian if you say that there is anything less than a 100% chance?
- Does being an atheist mean that you assert that there is a 0% chance that the Christian God exists?
-Does being an agnostic mean that you put the chance as less than 100%, but more than 0%?
- I talk about a 5% chance that the Biblical God exists, but how sensible is that? Why not 3% or 27%?
- Is talking about percentages (or odds) useful in the debate about God?I

Your friend reminds me of folk who've likened the 'supernatural' with trillions upon trillions to one odds.

I was actually thinking about this the other day. I agree with Goat that rarely can we validly assign a single number for the probability of things concerning ancient- and pre-history; and even when/if we could, that would mean only that it's likely or unlikely, exceptional or mundane, not that it's true or false. As a means of argument 'probability' is often used without any real meaning.

But what you've mentioned seems more to be talking assigning some kind of value or weight to our own opinions. In that context, in the rare event that it's done honestly and accurately, I think it's a very useful tool - especially when belief A depends on belief B, which depends further on belief C.

For example, suppose a Christian claims that the resurrection of Jesus is historical fact. Even granting numerous Christian presuppositions and common arguments - essentially the bible's story and the conclusions drawn from it - I believe an honest assessment of that 'fact' would look something along these lines:
Gospels written by their attributed authors: 80-90% probability, for a Christian (?)
Acts, Pauline letters and church tradition accurate: 80-90%?
Disciples willing to die for belief in resurrection: 95-99% chance they weren't lying
Disciples hallucinating or Jesus didn't really die: 95-99% chance of falsehood
So chance of resurrection = 58-79%, by conservative Christian reasoning (give or take, I suppose)

It works both ways, of course; we see various non-theists and sceptics claiming things like "no evidence that Jesus existed" or "no evidence for the supernatural" when what they really mean - or should mean at least - is that if A and B and C are all true, then that given piece of 'evidence' (and there are so many of them, sadly) might amount to 0.1% and we can safely ignore it. The 'if' is the important part of course, and that's why we debate each side of every question. But if the average atheist were to honestly consider the steps in their reasoning and consider the gaps at each stage between absolute certainty and what they've actually got, who's to say they wouldn't decide that Proposition 259 of the Apologist's Arsenal (which has an 87% chance of being a 'supernatural' phenomenon) has only an 93% chance of being false?

If so, a vaguely-reasoned 8.01% 'chance' that there are supernatural things won't change anyone's mind one way or the other, and nor should it. But we might always hope that even a smidgeon of uncertainty might help to avoid comments that such-and-such "notions are incoherent and exist as concocted religious ideas to drive memberships and to encourage ritual practices and donations" (quoting Flail on heaven), for example.

Long and short, I guess what I'm saying is that while probability notions are usually very subjective and dubious applied as debate, in terms of evaluating one's own views they are all but essential to avoid fundamentalist attitudes and black-and-white thinking.

[JehovahsWitness]

As an agnostic, I would say that there is less than a 5% chance that there is a God as described in the Bible.

On the other hand, I have a colleague who is 100% sure that Jesus is the son of God and that the Bible is fully accurate. I once asked him if he would concede that there is even a one-in-a-million chance that the God he believes in does not exist, and he said " No " God has directly revealed Himself to me. I am 100% sure.

For argument purposes, is it useful to talk in terms of percentages?
- How many Christians have this 100% certainty that their God exits? How many, if asked, would say there is an 80% chance, or a 60% chance? Can you be called a -true Christian if you say that there is anything less than a 100% chance?
- Does being an atheist mean that you assert that there is a 0% chance that the Christian God exists?
-Does being an agnostic mean that you put the chance as less than 100%, but more than 0%?
- I talk about a 5% chance that the Biblical God exists, but how sensible is that? Why not 3% or 27%?
- Is talking about percentages (or odds) useful in the debate about God?I

This is interesting - could you explain how you actually calculate your percentages or is this just another way of saying "I feel in my heart" ie you are simply expressing your opinion based feelings and inviting for the same.

I personally can only speak in terms of conviction or belief - as I have no idea how one would actually CALCULATE mathematically the ACTUAL chances for God existing. You can, I suppose calculate the chances of particular biological processes happening without outside (intelligent) manipulation and based on that made deductions, but calculating the mathematical chance of God existing over God not existing... what is your baseline?

I personally have no doubt at all that God exists. That's the best way I can express it.

[Flail]

As an agnostic, I would say that there is less than a 5% chance that there is a God as described in the Bible.

On the other hand, I have a colleague who is 100% sure that Jesus is the son of God and that the Bible is fully accurate. I once asked him if he would concede that there is even a one-in-a-million chance that the God he believes in does not exist, and he said " No " God has directly revealed Himself to me. I am 100% sure.

For argument purposes, is it useful to talk in terms of percentages?
- How many Christians have this 100% certainty that their God exits? How many, if asked, would say there is an 80% chance, or a 60% chance? Can you be called a -true Christian if you say that there is anything less than a 100% chance?
- Does being an atheist mean that you assert that there is a 0% chance that the Christian God exists?
-Does being an agnostic mean that you put the chance as less than 100%, but more than 0%?
- I talk about a 5% chance that the Biblical God exists, but how sensible is that? Why not 3% or 27%?
- Is talking about percentages (or odds) useful in the debate about God?I

As an Ignostic, I contend that talking in any percentage is futile, but that going 100% either way is unfounded. 'Strong atheism' which propounds that there is 'absolutely no God' is 100% unfounded; just as is 'strong theism' which propounds that there is 'absolutely this particular God' 100%. Since none of us can verifiably demonstrate any supernatural being of any sort, I think it best to remain on the fence and wait, but in the interim find benefit in any philosophy that helps us get along with each other absent adopting judgments on behalf of unknown Gods.

[McCulloch]

As an agnostic, I would say that there is less than a 5% chance that there is a God as described in the Bible.

As a statistician, I would say show me your calculations.

On the other hand, I have a colleague who is 100% sure that Jesus is the son of God and that the Bible is fully accurate.

That kind of certainty is dangerous.

Can you be called a true Christian if you say that there is anything less than a 100% chance?

Let's not get into what makes a True Christian. I think that most Christians would allow for some doubt.

Does being an atheist mean that you assert that there is a 0% chance that the Christian God exists?

With an appropriate margin of error

Does being an agnostic mean that you put the chance as less than 100%, but more than 0%?

Some define agnostic to mean that even determining the odds is impossible.

I talk about a 5% chance that the Biblical God exists, but how sensible is that? Why not 3% or 27%?

Any made-up number is as good as another. How about 2.71828182845904523536028747135266249775724709369995% ? Or maybe -1

Is talking about percentages (or odds) useful in the debate about God?

Yes, absolutely. More than a few apologists have masked the uncertainty about this issue with bogus references to invalid statistical claims.

[joncash]

I think I'd put it around 0% myself, and I'm a theist. The Bible includes a lot of ignorance (hell, fear), but I'd warn against discounting the entire Bible wholesale. There are illuminated spots in it where God is known.

[JoeyKnothead]

I think I'd put it around 0% myself, and I'm a theist. The Bible includes a lot of ignorance (hell, fear), but I'd warn against discounting the entire Bible wholesale. There are illuminated spots in it where God is known.

I can kinda get with that - excepting the "God is known" part - retaining the notion there's some good lessons to be had.

That said, I wonder of the bad doesn't outweigh the good.

[Adamoriens]

As an agnostic, I would say that there is less than a 5% chance that there is a God as described in the Bible.

On the other hand, I have a colleague who is 100% sure that Jesus is the son of God and that the Bible is fully accurate. I once asked him if he would concede that there is even a one-in-a-million chance that the God he believes in does not exist, and he said " No " God has directly revealed Himself to me. I am 100% sure.

For argument purposes, is it useful to talk in terms of percentages?
- How many Christians have this 100% certainty that their God exits? How many, if asked, would say there is an 80% chance, or a 60% chance? Can you be called a -true Christian if you say that there is anything less than a 100% chance?
- Does being an atheist mean that you assert that there is a 0% chance that the Christian God exists?
-Does being an agnostic mean that you put the chance as less than 100%, but more than 0%?
- I talk about a 5% chance that the Biblical God exists, but how sensible is that? Why not 3% or 27%?
- Is talking about percentages (or odds) useful in the debate about God?I

You seem to be talking about epistemic probability, which is the probability of a proposition given the knowledge we do in fact have (and our certainty about that knowledge). While our probability estimates of the truth of any given proposition may be somewhat arbitrary, it is possible to systematically calculate the probability of a hypothesis given our state of knowledge. Bayes' theorem can do this for us, though it's an open question whether Bayes' theorem itself is coextensive with logic (objectivist) or simply pragmatism. I go with a more subjective explanationist approach when thinking about God, though Bayes' fun to use when working out hypothetical probabilities.

Both approaches have a few obstacles to overcome when it comes to philosophy of religion. The first one is what prior probability to assign to the concept of God, which will be a function of how well the sort of being like God fits into common sense ontology ie. is he simple or complex? Is he a material being? Is he a commonly-observed sort of thing? The other major obstacle is figuring out what the existence of God would deductively and inductively entail. Is the universe more likely to exist? Would he allow gratuitous evil? In some ways this is the worst of the two, since it's exacerbated by conflicting theological doctrines. If the character or motivations of God are beyond us, then any probability estimates are unjustified. On the other hand, we might have some but not all knowledge of what God would be like and what he would do, so we have to figure what we would and wouldn't expect of him; no easy task. Often, both of these views are taken by the same person at different times.

So it's not impossible to come to a considered (non-arbitrary) probability about God's existence, but pretty much everybody is awful at thinking coherently and consistently about it.

Atheist <0.5 that God exists. Theist >0.5. Agnostic=0.5 or N/A.