Detecting Intelligence

[otseng]

There are two fields that actively pursues detecting intelligence that exist outside of the earth. One is the SETI program that seeks to detect intelligent life on other planets. Another is the field of Intelligent Design that seeks to detect intelligent life outside of this universe. Both are looking for clues of the existence of intelligent life by using natural means of detection.

SETI:

SETI, the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, is an exploratory science that seeks evidence of life in the universe by looking for some signature of its technology. Our current understanding of life’s origin on Earth suggests that given a suitable environment and sufficient time, life will develop on other planets. Whether evolution will give rise to intelligent, technological civilizations is open to speculation. However, such a civilization could be detected across interstellar distances, and may actually offer our best opportunity for discovering extraterrestrial life in the near future.

ID:

Its fundamental claim is that intelligent causes are necessary to explain the complex, information-rich structures of biology, and that these causes are empirically detectable.

So, what would constitute as something (message, pattern) that required an intelligence cause?

How can we distinguish between an intelligent cause and a non-intelligent cause?

Would either of these be any different for SETI and for ID?

[Curious]

Who said they were in different orbits?

You can't have more than one planet in the same, or close, orbits. The gravitational attraction would disturb them or cause a collision.

DanZ

No it would not. Maybe in the long term there would be serious orbital perturbations but in the time scale that that we are testing this would not be a problem.

[Ian Parker]

This would take forever as Pi is an infinite number of decimal places.

One sinply writes out enough to ensure non randomness as a hypothesis. If you wrote out 100 binary places the probability of chance would be 1 in 2^100.

Someone has also said that a prime number sequence might be generated by some as yet undiscovered natural process. What,? If your process is natural selection, under what circumstances would fitness be increased by either knowing 100 digits of Pi, e or anything else, or the first so many primes? Except of course in the context of general intelligence.

[jwu]

Not only "knowing" it would be required, but also transmitting it into space.

But as soon as something "knows" it, we already have what we were looking for - intelligence.

[Ian Parker]

Would you use radio or would you use a laser. A laser, particularly if it in in space and collimated by something like Hubble would have a far greater range than radio.

Our technology is advancing at a rate which is quite fast by human standards, and which in fact represents a discontinuity viewed in terms of geological time. It is thus unlikely that we would ever meet a civilization similar to ours. The time we will take to get to Type 2 (at which a civilization becomes unmistakable because of its effect on the star) is again probably short in geological terms. There are no observed type 2s. Unless we ourselves are type 3 and live in a matrix (see "Can Science find God") there are no type 3s.

No one has mentioned the possibility of interstellar travel. The Fermi paradox asks "Why are there not aliens everywhere?". There are some possible answers.

1) Intelligent life is rare. If we had Intelligent Design a seeding density would be the range of interstellar travel.
2) There is a race to be first, we are the first and we will eventally eliminate everyone else.
3) We live in a matrix with the only civilizations being type 3.

[jwu]

Yes, lasers would be viable too.

The whole type classification of civilizations is highly speculative. E.g. if a civilization learns to draw energy from the higgs field, then the whole star business becomes obsolete. Or they just don't need that much energy in first instance, due to more efficient use and normal e.g. fusion or more advanced types of reactors are completely sufficient.

In other words, there may be very advanced civilizations out there which would qualify as type 2 or 3 by energy turnover but don't leave the hypothesized signs of this.

No one has mentioned the possibility of interstellar travel. The Fermi paradox asks "Why are there not aliens everywhere?". There are some possible answers.

1) Intelligent life is rare. If we had Intelligent Design a seeding density would be the range of interstellar travel.
2) There is a race to be first, we are the first and we will eventally eliminate everyone else.
3) We live in a matrix with the only civilizations being type 3.

There is a fourth: They don't want to be found, and are sufficiently advanced to ensure that we don't.

[otseng]

Very simple. Write out Pi in binary decimals

I think something like that would be the minimum message that could be sent to show that we are intelligent. Though, if we received the number pi in binary form from outer space, I'm not sure how scientists would react to that. Would they be convinced that it is not from a natural source?

In general, the steps required to communicate intelligence consists of some sort of complex message, encoding that message, putting that encoded message in some sort of medium (radio signal, gold record), putting that medium in a place for an observer to get to it, and the observer then has to decode that message. And the more complex the message, the greater the odds that it had an intelligent cause. A message that contained pi to 100 places could be such a message. Or a message like, "ET, phone home" might be another.

The time we will take to get to Type 2 (at which a civilization becomes unmistakable because of its effect on the star) is again probably short in geological terms. There are no observed type 2s. Unless we ourselves are type 3 and live in a matrix (see "Can Science find God") there are no type 3s.

For my own edification and for those unfamiliar with the different types, here is the Kardashev scale:

Type I - A civilization that is able to harness all of the power available on a single planet.
Type II - A civilization that is able to harness all of the power available from a single star.
Type III - A civilization that is able to harness all of the power available from a single galaxy.

The Fermi paradox asks "Why are there not aliens everywhere?".

Again, for terminology sake, here is the summation of the Fermi paradox:

The commonly held belief that the universe has many technologically advanced civilizations, combined with our observations that suggest otherwise, is paradoxical, suggesting that either our understanding or our observations are flawed or incomplete.

There are some possible answers.

1) Intelligent life is rare. If we had Intelligent Design a seeding density would be the range of interstellar travel.
2) There is a race to be first, we are the first and we will eventally eliminate everyone else.
3) We live in a matrix with the only civilizations being type 3.

Wikipedia also lists some more:
- They exist and have arrived - but most people have yet to see them. (eg UFOs)
- They exist - but we have missed them
- They exist - but do not communicate with us
- They exist and communicate - but we are not listening or dismiss the evidence
- They no longer exist - or we do not exist for long enough
- They never existed

[Ian Parker]

Though, if we received the number pi in binary form from outer space, I'm not sure how scientists would react to that. Would they be convinced that it is not from a natural source?

I think it would be spotted pretty quickly particularly if the message were repeated. All signals received to date have been random. If something mathematical is sent the degree of intelligence required can easily be determined. There is a definite complexity associated with it. This is in contrast to biological systems where the determination of irreducibility and evolability is not rigorous

Wikipedia also lists some more:
- They exist and have arrived - but most people have yet to see them. (eg UFOs)
- They exist - but we have missed them
- They exist - but do not communicate with us
- They exist and communicate - but we are not listening or dismiss the evidence
- They no longer exist - or we do not exist for long enough
- They never existed

If they really have decided not to communicate with us then it is a waste of time sending signals anyway. Flying Saucers by the way are terrestrial and work using the Coanda effect. Experiments have given lifts of 0.1 ambiant pressure.

Interstellar travel by the way involves the acceleration of matter to velocities where a collision has the force of a nuclear explosion. A civilization could be considerably damaged by one just starting off on the interstellar route. To stop us all they would have to do would be to download AI onto the Internet.

We know that US presidents are elected essentially by the media. Having sized the media (the Internet will become the media of the future) ET is going to elect a president who will do what he wants. There can be no Independence Day or any other heroics.

[QED]

I'm still convinced that the reason we haven't detected other intelligent transmissions is due to a mismatch in time-windows. I've already pointed out that we know we've only just become noticeable as a technologically capable intelligence through our EM transmissions. And after a mere 100 years we are already switching away from high-power terrestrial broadcasts to low-power direct satellite communications. The choice of modulation is also changing to varieties that are virtually impossible to distinguish from EM noise.

These technical choices can be seen as inevitable given the universality of the physics and communications requirements. So for each technological civilization we would only expect to be able to intercept detectable emissions within a tiny window of a few hundred years or so. Set against the possible mismatches in timescales the only civilizations likely to detect others by listening-in to EM transmissions would be those with very long-lived monitoring facilities. We will not be of that description for millions of years to come.

Look at it from the perspective of our own radio signals: The first broadcast of a human voice has now reached out as far as 100 light-years. If we are to get back a handshake any day now then it would have had to have been form a civilization no more than 50 light-years away. I'm not sure how many star-systems this encompasses but I'd guess at something like 100. Not a lot of hope in finding an inhabited planet amongst that small selection.

The only hope for our SETI program is that long-lived civilizations mount a deliberate effort to signal their presence with high-powered omnidirectional broadcasts. The motive for doing this would need to persist for millennia despite constant worries that drawing attention to themselves might result in undesired interest.

Putting all this together leaves me in no doubt that we will not be detecting any extra-terrestrial intelligence any day soon -- not because there is none, but because EM transmissions will not be giving them away.

[juliod]

QED is right in his analysis.

But let's get back to the original point, which was to compare SETI with ID. I think we have all agreed that there is currently nothing observable in SETI that indicates that we are intercepting signals from an intelligent source.

But I think the conclusion is broader than just the interim results of SETI. We see nothing in astrophysics or other data-collecting sciences that indicates signs of an intelligent life form. This would include not just aliens, but god as well.

SETI is really searching the "final fronteir". In other words, the last remaining place where we might find communications from intelligent beings. I.E. the EM spectrum.

Would SETI be a worthwhile program if prayer were capable of communicating with some other being?

DanZ

[Ian Parker]

I'm still convinced that the reason we haven't detected other intelligent transmissions is due to a mismatch in time-windows. I've already pointed out that we know we've only just become noticeable as a technologically capable intelligence through our EM transmissions. And after a mere 100 years we are already switching away from high-power terrestrial broadcasts to low-power direct satellite communications. The choice of modulation is also changing to varieties that are virtually impossible to distinguish from EM noise.

You arrear only to be talking aboutt EM signals sent out for other reasons than a deliberate effot to communicate. There are other ways of detecting a presence. There is one question which I touched on earlier and that is the risk that ET presents and the risk we present to them.

The first thing that any civilization has to do is protect itself. I mentioned that an interstellar journey involves a spacecraft travelling at speeds which would create nuclear explosions. A civilization may or may not have an interest in conquest for its own sake, but it cannot allow new civilizations unrestricted interstellar launches. Perhaps the best way to settle the issue for good would be build an interstellar launch facility. If we are allowed to do it, it will will prove pretty conclusively that ET does not exist.

We have not discussed either whether or not it would be a good thing or not to make contact. SETI by drwaing attentiion to ourselves may be putting the Human Race in grave danger.

Detecting an interstellar launch would not be difficult. The current proposals are for acceleration by means of microwaves. These would quite easily be detected.