Help: How do I know that your God is the one, true God?

[Kir Komrik]

Hi all,
I'm new here and have just read up on the policies and finished my signature, etc. I hope I've done everything correctly so far.
I would like to believe in an almighty power but the problem is that in my research I've found so many gods out there. Coming from a family that has been explicitly atheist for generations, I'm starting from scratch and am looking at all religions.
I am sincerely curious to know how would I know, for instance, that your god is the one, true God?
Thank you.

[ytrewq]

What the Conjunction Fallacy is saying, though it isn't clear in the equation used to define the Conjunction Rule, is that the Conjunction Rule only applies if the information added is:

less likely to be true than the initial proposition itself was OR, its likelihood cannot be assessed with confidence.

Let the proposition of the turth of a supernatural embellishment be regarded an uncertainty. Then, in the common vernauclar this is just saying

You cannot make an uncertainty more certain by adding an uncertain detail. If you do, you are committing the Conjunction Fallacy.

Some of what you say here is factually incorrect.

What the Conjunction Fallacy actually says is that the probablility of two events occuring together is less than the probability of either event occurring on it's own. More precisely, the probability of A and B occurring is Pr(A) x Pr(B). As all probabilities are by definition between zero and one, it is clear that the product of two probabilities must be less than either of the individual probabilities. This is (IMHO) all pretty basic and inuitive stuff.

However, you appear to be incorrectly applying the same principle to adding more 'information' or 'evidence' to decide the truth of a proposition, specifically, you appear to be saying that adding additional 'weak' information makes an uncertainty even less certain. To quote 'You cannot make an uncertainty more certain by adding an uncertain detail'

That is not what the Conjunction Fallacy says at all, and your interpretation is plain wrong. Here are some example that illustrate your error.

In Physics, measurement of the intensity of a very weak light source is perfomed by literally counting the photons emitted from the source. Unfortunately, the measured photons do not arrive in a steady, uniform stream, but somewhat randomly. It is the same with radioactive decay, measure by a Geiger Counter. If each measured photon or radioactive particle is made to emit a 'clicking' sound, then the clicks are not uniformly spaced in time, and this leads to an uncertainty in the measurement. For example, if the average arrival rate (averaged over a very long time) of the photons is 10 per second, and you count them for 10 seconds, then in practice you will NOT detect 100 photons, but typically somewhere between 90 and 110 photons, due to the randomness in their arrival times. It turns out that the uncertainty in the measurement is equal to the square root of the number of photons detected - ain't science beautiful at times?

OK. So imagine we dutifully count 10,000 photons over a period of one second - actually the time over which they are counted is irrelevant to the accuracy of the measurement, it is only the number of photons counted that matters. The uncertainty in this measurement is root(10,000) which is 100.

In other words, the measured intensity of the light source in this example is 10,000 phons per second, with an uncertainty of plus-or-minus 100 photons/second. BTW, I have counted many billions of photons (using electronic photon counters), and the sneaky little buggers really do behave as I have described

Now (for the interesting part), assume that we want to refine this measurement, make it more accurate, by adding more information. We can obtain more information by repeating the exeriment, but this time count for only 1/100th of a second, in which case we would expect to count only around 100 photons. For this second measurement, the measured intensity of the light source is 100 photons divided by (1/00) seconds, or 10,000 photons per second, same as before as expected. However, this measurent is much less accurate, because the uncertainty in the number of measured photons is root(100) which is 10 photons, leading to an uncertainty in the measured intensity of 10/(1/100), or 1000 photons per second.

Now we have two measurements for the intensity of the light source, but the second measurement is 10 times less accurate that the first, uncertainty of 1000 vs. 100, because we counted less photons.

Now for the guts of it. Kir would have us believe that it is not possible to somehow use the less accurate result to increase the accuracy of the first result, in fact, he claims that doing so will degrade the accuracy. Not so. Including the second result, no matter how inaccurate it is, still improves the accuracy of the first result. Let's work it out. In total, we have counted 10,100 photons, over a total counting period of 1.01 seconds. The uncertainty in the total number of photons counted is root(10100) = 100.50 photons, so the uncertainty in the measured intensity is 100.5/1.01 = 99.5 photons per second. Admittedly, this is not greatly more accurate than the uncertainty of 100 photons/second of the first measurement, but then again, the second measuremnet was a very quick, rough-as-guts measurement that counted 100 time less photons.

Even so, the principle here is rock solid. Adding more evidence (even weak evidence) to an existing result increases the accuracy of the existing result.


If that scientific example seemed confusing, then fortunately common sense and commonly used legal principle reach the same conclusion. Judges and juries frequently observe that a single piece of incriminating evidence may be insufficient to result in a conviction, but that a number of additional pieces of incriminating evidence can result in the judgement changing from 'probable' to 'beyond all reasonable doubt'. The math that justifies this is simple, but why present math if it can be understood by common sense.

[Danmark]

What the Conjunction Fallacy actually says is that the probablility of two events occuring together is less than the probability of either event occurring on it's own. More precisely, the probability of A and B occurring is Pr(A) x Pr(B). As all probabilities are by definition between zero and one, it is clear that the product of two probabilities must be less than either of the individual probabilities. This is (IMHO) all pretty basic and inuitive stuff.
. . . .
Even so, the principle here is rock solid. Adding more evidence (even weak evidence) to an existing result increases the accuracy of the existing result.


If that scientific example seemed confusing, then fortunately common sense and commonly used legal principle reach the same conclusion. Judges and juries frequently observe that a single piece of incriminating evidence may be insufficient to result in a conviction, but that a number of additional pieces of incriminating evidence can result in the judgement changing from 'probable' to 'beyond all reasonable doubt'. The math that justifies this is simple, but why present math if it can be understood by common sense.

Well put and easy to understand. And as if to prove the clarity of your last sentence I understood these general statements much more easily than the intervening [redacted] examples.

[GADARENE]

Hi all,
I'm new here and have just read up on the policies and finished my signature, etc. I hope I've done everything correctly so far.
I would like to believe in an almighty power but the problem is that in my research I've found so many gods out there. Coming from a family that has been explicitly atheist for generations, I'm starting from scratch and am looking at all religions.
I am sincerely curious to know how would I know, for instance, that your god is the one, true God?
Thank you.

which of the "so many gods" you found has the most credibility in your opinion? why?

how would you know which god is the real McCoy? excellent question. what qualifications would distinguish him from all other gods you researched in your opinion?

[GADARENE]

Hi all,
I'm new here and have just read up on the policies and finished my signature, etc. I hope I've done everything correctly so far.
I would like to believe in an almighty power but the problem is that in my research I've found so many gods out there. Coming from a family that has been explicitly atheist for generations, I'm starting from scratch and am looking at all religions.
I am sincerely curious to know how would I know, for instance, that your god is the one, true God?
Thank you.

which of the "so many gods" you found has the most credibility in your opinion? why?

how would you know which god is the real McCoy? excellent question. what qualifications would distinguish him from all other gods you researched in your opinion?

"How do I know that your God is the one, true God?" how can you know what I know? who knows? what difference does it make what others believe? what do you believe?

obviously this nut wasn't anybody.
They stripped him and put a scarlet robe on him, and then twisted together a crown of thorns and set it on his head. They put a staff in his right hand and knelt in front of him and mocked him. "Hail, king of the Jews!" they said. They spit on him, and took the staff and struck him on the head again and again. After they had mocked him, they took off the robe and put his own clothes on him. Then they led him away to crucify him. As they were going out, they met a man from Cyrene, named Simon, and they forced him to carry the cross.
All who see me mock me; they hurl insults, shaking their heads: "He trusts in the LORD; let the LORD rescue him. Let him deliver him, since he delights in him."
The chief priests and the teachers of the law were standing there, vehemently accusing him. Then Herod and his soldiers ridiculed and mocked him. Dressing him in an elegant robe, they sent him back to Pilate.
Those who passed by hurled insults at him, shaking their heads and saying, "You who are going to destroy the temple and build it in three days, save yourself! Come down from the cross, if you are the Son of God!" In the same way the chief priests, the teachers of the law and the elders mocked him. "He saved others," they said, "but he can't save himself! He's the King of Israel! Let him come down now from the cross, and we will believe in him. He trusts in God. Let God rescue him now if he wants him, for he said, 'I am the Son of God.'" In the same way the robbers who were crucified with him also heaped insults on him.
Those who passed by hurled insults at him, shaking their heads and saying, "So! You who are going to destroy the temple and build it in three days, come down from the cross and save yourself!" In the same way the chief priests and the teachers of the law mocked him among themselves. "He saved others," they said, "but he can't save himself! Let this Christ, this King of Israel, come down now from the cross, that we may see and believe." Those crucified with him also heaped insults on him.
The people stood watching, and the rulers even sneered at him. They said, "He saved others; let him save himself if he is the Christ of God, the Chosen One." The soldiers also came up and mocked him. They offered him wine vinegar and said, "If you are the king of the Jews, save yourself."
The soldiers led Jesus away into the palace (that is, the Praetorium) and called together the whole company of soldiers. They put a purple robe on him, then twisted together a crown of thorns and set it on him. And they began to call out to him, "Hail, king of the Jews!" Again and again they struck him on the head with a staff and spit on him. Falling on their knees, they paid homage to him. And when they had mocked him, they took off the purple robe and put his own clothes on him. Then they led him out to crucify him.
The soldiers twisted together a crown of thorns and put it on his head. They clothed him in a purple robe and went up to him again and again, saying, "Hail, king of the Jews!" And they struck him in the face.
When Jesus came out wearing the crown of thorns and the purple robe, Pilate said to them, "Here is the man!"
Carrying his own cross, he went out to the place of the Skull (which in Aramaic is called Golgotha).
As they were going out, they met a man from Cyrene, named Simon, and they forced him to carry the cross.
As they led him away, they seized Simon from Cyrene, who was on his way in from the country, and put the cross on him and made him carry it behind Jesus.
Then they offered him wine mixed with myrrh, but he did not take it. And they crucified him. Dividing up his clothes, they cast lots to see what each would get.
When the soldiers crucified Jesus, they took his clothes, dividing them into four shares, one for each of them, with the undergarment remaining. This garment was seamless, woven in one piece from top to bottom. "Let's not tear it," they said to one another. "Let's decide by lot who will get it." This happened that the scripture might be fulfilled which said, "They divided my garments among them and cast lots for my clothing." So this is what the soldiers did.
Jesus said, "I am thirsty." A jar of wine vinegar was there, so they soaked a sponge in it, put the sponge on a stalk of the hyssop plant, and lifted it to Jesus' lips.
One man ran, filled a sponge with wine vinegar, put it on a stick, and offered it to Jesus to drink. "Now leave him alone. Let's see if Elijah comes to take him down," he said.
There they offered Jesus wine to drink, mixed with gall; but after tasting it, he refused to drink it. When they had crucified him, they divided up his clothes by casting lots
Just as there were many who were appalled at him - his appearance was so disfigured beyond that of any man and his form marred beyond human likeness
Do you think I cannot call on my Father, and he will at once put at my disposal more than twelve legions of angels?

[Danmark]

Hi all,
I'm new here and have just read up on the policies and finished my signature, etc. I hope I've done everything correctly so far.
I would like to believe in an almighty power but the problem is that in my research I've found so many gods out there. Coming from a family that has been explicitly atheist for generations, I'm starting from scratch and am looking at all religions.
I am sincerely curious to know how would I know, for instance, that your god is the one, true God?
Thank you.

which of the "so many gods" you found has the most credibility in your opinion? why?

how would you know which god is the real McCoy? excellent question. what qualifications would distinguish him from all other gods you researched in your opinion?

"How do I know that your God is the one, true God?" how can you know what I know? who knows? what difference does it make what others believe? what do you believe?

obviously this nut wasn't anybody.
They stripped him and put a scarlet robe on him, and then twisted together a crown of thorns and set it on his head. They put a staff in his right hand and knelt in front of him and mocked him.[redacted]....
Do you think I cannot call on my Father, and he will at once put at my disposal more than twelve legions of angels?

And the point of that was...?

You ought to read the rules. Long quotes need attribution. Merely quoting scripture is not an argument.


4. Unsupported Bible quotations are to be considered as no more authoritative than unsupported quotations from any other book.

5. Please avoid "preaching" and using the forum as simply a way to blast people with the gospel message. This is a debating forum, not a convenient place to overtly proselytize.
Guidelines for C & A

[Goat]

Hi all,
I'm new here and have just read up on the policies and finished my signature, etc. I hope I've done everything correctly so far.
I would like to believe in an almighty power but the problem is that in my research I've found so many gods out there. Coming from a family that has been explicitly atheist for generations, I'm starting from scratch and am looking at all religions.
I am sincerely curious to know how would I know, for instance, that your god is the one, true God?
Thank you.

which of the "so many gods" you found has the most credibility in your opinion? why?

how would you know which god is the real McCoy? excellent question. what qualifications would distinguish him from all other gods you researched in your opinion?

"How do I know that your God is the one, true God?" how can you know what I know? who knows? what difference does it make what others believe? what do you believe?

obviously this nut wasn't anybody.

< sermon snipped >

?

And how do you know that is more than a story?? Is it the truth, or is it a fable? If it's a fable, then it is just a story about a God, ... it is not a reason to 'know' the your god is the one true God.

You ahve to have something better that stories.

[GADARENE]

Hi all,
I'm new here and have just read up on the policies and finished my signature, etc. I hope I've done everything correctly so far.
I would like to believe in an almighty power but the problem is that in my research I've found so many gods out there. Coming from a family that has been explicitly atheist for generations, I'm starting from scratch and am looking at all religions.
I am sincerely curious to know how would I know, for instance, that your god is the one, true God?
Thank you.

which of the "so many gods" you found has the most credibility in your opinion? why?

how would you know which god is the real McCoy? excellent question. what qualifications would distinguish him from all other gods you researched in your opinion?

"How do I know that your God is the one, true God?" how can you know what I know? who knows? what difference does it make what others believe? what do you believe?

obviously this nut wasn't anybody.

< sermon snipped >

?

And how do you know that is more than a story?? Is it the truth, or is it a fable? If it's a fable, then it is just a story about a God, ... it is not a reason to 'know' the your god is the one true God.

You ahve to have something better that stories.

you mean you have to have.

story? how do you know it is a story?

[Danmark]

Hi all,
I'm new here and have just read up on the policies and finished my signature, etc. I hope I've done everything correctly so far.
I would like to believe in an almighty power but the problem is that in my research I've found so many gods out there. Coming from a family that has been explicitly atheist for generations, I'm starting from scratch and am looking at all religions.
I am sincerely curious to know how would I know, for instance, that your god is the one, true God?
Thank you.

which of the "so many gods" you found has the most credibility in your opinion? why?

how would you know which god is the real McCoy? excellent question. what qualifications would distinguish him from all other gods you researched in your opinion?

"How do I know that your God is the one, true God?" how can you know what I know? who knows? what difference does it make what others believe? what do you believe?

obviously this nut wasn't anybody.

< sermon snipped >

?

And how do you know that is more than a story?? Is it the truth, or is it a fable? If it's a fable, then it is just a story about a God, ... it is not a reason to 'know' the your god is the one true God.

You ahve to have something better that stories.

you mean you have to have.

story? how do you know it is a story?

GAD, you've been asked if you have an argument. Do you have a point? Your one liner open ended questions do not advance debate. I've suggested you read the rules and the specific guidelines for C & A. You are either going to be ignored, or a moderator is likely to comment.

If you have a point of view you want to advance, then take a stand.

[GADARENE]

Hi all,
I'm new here and have just read up on the policies and finished my signature, etc. I hope I've done everything correctly so far.
I would like to believe in an almighty power but the problem is that in my research I've found so many gods out there. Coming from a family that has been explicitly atheist for generations, I'm starting from scratch and am looking at all religions.
I am sincerely curious to know how would I know, for instance, that your god is the one, true God?
Thank you.

which of the "so many gods" you found has the most credibility in your opinion? why?

how would you know which god is the real McCoy? excellent question. what qualifications would distinguish him from all other gods you researched in your opinion?

"How do I know that your God is the one, true God?" how can you know what I know? who knows? what difference does it make what others believe? what do you believe?

obviously this nut wasn't anybody.

< sermon snipped >

?

And how do you know that is more than a story?? Is it the truth, or is it a fable? If it's a fable, then it is just a story about a God, ... it is not a reason to 'know' the your god is the one true God.

You ahve to have something better that stories.

you mean you have to have.

story? how do you know it is a story?

GAD, you've been asked if you have an argument. Do you have a point? Your one liner open ended questions do not advance debate. I've suggested you read the rules and the specific guidelines for C & A. You are either going to be ignored, or a moderator is likely to comment.

If you have a point of view you want to advance, then take a stand.

I don't recall addressing you

[Danmark]

If you have a point of view you want to advance, then take a stand.

I don't recall addressing you

What you do or do not recall is not the issue. I addressed you. Do you have an answer? When you post here, you can expect more than one person to read your post. So, I repeat, do you have anything to say? Or do you only have one liner vague questions and want to pick nits and typos.

If you prefer a one to one conversation, there is a forum for that. You can check the Forum Index