Shalit, Abbas, Barghouti, and a new political reality

Jayhawker Soule · Post by **Jayhawker Soule** » Thu Nov 19, 2009 1:56 pm

The following article appears in Haaretz ...

Report: Gilad Shalit could be freed by next week

This is not the first time that the Arab rumor mill has raised hopes for his release, but this time it feels different.

For one thing, we have the recent and somewhat petulant 'resignation' by Abbas bemoaning the lack of a peace process worth pursuing. What has all the characteristics of self-destructive posturing would begin to make considerable sense if the Gilad rumors are true. Why? Because

no such release could possible be effected without Abbas being informed throughout the process, and
any such release would be in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, most notable among them being Marwan Barghouti.

Barghouti is enormously popular and would almost certainly displace Abbas. By resigning, Abbas is able to frame his departure as a protest on behalf of the Palestinians rather than a rejection by them.

Perhaps more to the point, releasing Shalit and Barghouti closes one chapter in the Israel-Palestinian conflict and opens the next. Barghouti is far more militant than Abbas, but he is also militantly opposed to corruption and militantly in favor of a two-state solution. He may be the one person capable of sterilizing Hamas, halting the incessant rocket attacks against civilian targets, and gaining political control of Gaza. It's hard to fathom where this might lead, but one thing seems near certain: the current stalemate would be over.

VermilionUK · Post by **VermilionUK** » Thu Nov 19, 2009 3:32 pm

I'd always be cautious in talks of releasing someone who Hamas want released.

They apparently want 450 Palestinians released (including Barghouti), and should it go through, would effectively be taken as a victory for Hamas.

Would this "victory" ( should it be taken as a victory) not lead to more attacks on Israel? I'd certainly think it would, despite your claim that he could halt attacks. Having Hamas given such a morale boost could be very dangerous for Israel.

Jayhawker Soule · Post by **Jayhawker Soule** » Thu Nov 19, 2009 3:53 pm

[ I'll be more than happy to discuss informed opinion on this topic as the situation progresses. ]

VermilionUK · Post by **VermilionUK** » Fri Nov 27, 2009 11:54 am

It seems that it could possibly lead to an eventual ceasefire. Events seem to indicate as much:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8372728.stm

Jayhawker Soule · Post by **Jayhawker Soule** » Fri Nov 27, 2009 7:08 pm

VermilionUK wrote:It seems that it could possibly lead to an eventual ceasefire. Events seem to indicate as much:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8372728.stm

From ynetnews:

Despite Hamas declaration, Qassam hits Negev region

Rocket fired about two days after terror groups in Gaza agree to halt cross-border fire lands in open area near Negev kibbutz. Official: We knew agreement wouldn't mark end to attacks

Shmulik Hadad
Published: 11.23.09, 22:07 / Israel News

A Qassam rocket landed in Israel's Negev region Monday evening, about 48 hours after Hamas declared that terror groups in Gaza had reached an agreement to halt rocket attacks on Israel.

The rocket landed in an open area near a kibbutz located within Sha'ar Hanegev Regional Council limits, but caused no injury or damage.

Sure ...

VermilionUK · Post by **VermilionUK** » Fri Nov 27, 2009 7:21 pm

Jayhawker Soule wrote:
VermilionUK wrote:It seems that it could possibly lead to an eventual ceasefire. Events seem to indicate as much:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8372728.stm
From ynetnews:
Despite Hamas declaration, Qassam hits Negev region

Rocket fired about two days after terror groups in Gaza agree to halt cross-border fire lands in open area near Negev kibbutz. Official: We knew agreement wouldn't mark end to attacks

Shmulik Hadad
Published: 11.23.09, 22:07 / Israel News

A Qassam rocket landed in Israel's Negev region Monday evening, about 48 hours after Hamas declared that terror groups in Gaza had reached an agreement to halt rocket attacks on Israel.

The rocket landed in an open area near a kibbutz located within Sha'ar Hanegev Regional Council limits, but caused no injury or damage.
Sure ...

That BBC article dates the 21st November, that YnetNews article dates 23rd November. Two days that lasted

JayhawkerSoule wrote:Sure ...

Indeed

- perhaps that BBC article gave me false optimism.

Jayhawker Soule · Post by **Jayhawker Soule** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 7:05 pm

Any optimism in a world in which terrorists are permitted dominion is a false optimism. It never ceases to amaze me how young liberals, awash in a sea of moral equivalencies, never consider the Jordan occupied Jerusalem of 1949 "occupied territory" - a term seemingly reserved by the soft antisemitic left for chastising the Jews. I'll be optimistic when I see a world, unremitting in its condemnation of anti-Arab bigotry, but equally clear in its zero tolerance towards terrorism. The only thing that stands between Gaza as human cesspool and Gaza as the San Diego of the Mediterranean is Hamas.

VermilionUK · Post by **VermilionUK** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 7:18 pm

Jayhawker Soule wrote:Any optimism in a world in which terrorists are permitted dominion is a false optimism. It never ceases to amaze me how young liberals, awash in a sea of moral equivalencies, never consider the Jordan occupied Jerusalem of 1949 "occupied territory" - a term seemingly reserved by the soft antisemitic left for chastising the Jews. I'll be optimistic when I see a world, unremitting in its condemnation of anti-Arab bigotry, but equally clear in its zero tolerance towards terrorism. The only thing that stands between Gaza as human cesspool and Gaza as the San Diego of the Mediterranean is Hamas.

Fair point - I was optimistic in the form that something happened. Hamas stopped - yes, for only 48 hours (maybe even less), but nevertheless, they stopped. If they can stop missiles going in for 48hrs, then in the right hands they can stop firing on Israel altogether (although such an achievement would probably not happen within the next 50 years).

I think you're perhaps looking at the negatives too much. It was a step towards peace, it showed that Hamas can call off attacks.

It's a step in the right direction, albeit a pathetically small one.

Jayhawker Soule · Post by **Jayhawker Soule** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 9:26 am

VermilionUK wrote:
Jayhawker Soule wrote:Any optimism in a world in which terrorists are permitted dominion is a false optimism. It never ceases to amaze me how young liberals, awash in a sea of moral equivalencies, never consider the Jordan occupied Jerusalem of 1949 "occupied territory" - a term seemingly reserved by the soft antisemitic left for chastising the Jews. I'll be optimistic when I see a world, unremitting in its condemnation of anti-Arab bigotry, but equally clear in its zero tolerance towards terrorism. The only thing that stands between Gaza as human cesspool and Gaza as the San Diego of the Mediterranean is Hamas.
Fair point - I was optimistic in the form that something happened. Hamas stopped - yes, for only 48 hours (maybe even less), but nevertheless, they stopped. If they can stop missiles going in for 48hrs, then in the right hands they can stop firing on Israel altogether (although such an achievement would probably not happen within the next 50 years).

I think you're perhaps looking at the negatives too much. It was a step towards peace, it showed that Hamas can call off attacks.

It's a step in the right direction, albeit a pathetically small one.

When someone characterizes a 2-day pause in terrorism as "a step towards peace" you have a mind-numbing example of liberal idiocy run amok.

VermilionUK · Post by **VermilionUK** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 9:35 am

Jayhawker Soule wrote: When someone characterizes a 2-day pause in terrorism as "a step towards peace" you have a mind-numbing example of liberal idiocy run amok.

Yes, it's only two days, but it's better than nothing. Like I've thought, they'll end up talking.

Jayhawker Soule wrote:you have a mind-numbing example of liberal idiocy run amok.