End of oil is around the corner~~~what do we do ?

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justme2
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End of oil is around the corner~~~what do we do ?

Post #1

Post by justme2 »

Below is what I have found. You can do the math
Globally, crude's reserves-to-production ratio has hovered between 40-55 years. The 1P estimate is an estimate of proven reserves, what is likely to be extracted from a well, 90% probability. Probable reserves are given 50% certainty (2P) and possible reserves a 10% certainty (3P).
https://tinyurl.com/yd7cfczq
https://tinyurl.com/yd7cfczqv

Overall, global supply fell by 720,000 barrels per day in August, .2017
https://tinyurl.com/yctnaj3f

our forecast horizon we will be in a 104 mb/d market and the call on OPEC crude and stock change rises from 32.2 mb/d in 2016 to 35.8 mb/d in 2022. With the group forecast to add 1.95 mb/d to production capacity in this period, this implies that available spare production capacity will fall below 2 mb/d.
https://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/oil2017MRSsum.pdf

Oil is a resource… it will run out
For decades now, the topic of when our oil will run out has been the focus of analysts and industry experts. The concern is real. Oil is a resource and will eventually be depleted. Once we discover and process all sources, there’s nothing else. It’s only a question of time.

Oil still remains the largest source of primary energy worldwide. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the global supply of oil, bio-fuel and liquid hydrocarbons are still enough to meet the global demand for liquid fuels for another 25 years. The good news is that developing countries are now seriously exploring and using alternative and renewable energy.

Here’s the latest report on Oil Consumption and Demand.
1. The world oil consumption per day is 91.7 million barrels as of May 2014.
2. The U.S. is the largest oil consumer in the world, using up 18.83 million barrels a day.
3. China uses 10% of the world’s oil. It is expected to overtake the U.S. as the largest oil consumer.
4. The global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.3 million barrels a day by late 2014.
http://www.theworldcounts.com/stories/W ... on-per-Day

North Sea is running too dry to meet target
Wednesday July 4, 2007
http://environment.guardian.co.uk/energ ... 52,00.html

The real casus belli: peak oil
Tuesday June 26, 2007
https://tinyurl.com/ydbn6h5w

Science Panel Finds Fault With Estimates of Coal Supply
Published: June 21, 2007 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/21/business/21coal.html

Chevron announces that they now have 11.8 years of oil left at current production levels after aquiring Unocal reserves
07/08/05
https://tinyurl.com/y9czea39

An Oil Enigma: Production Falls Even as Reserves Rise
Published: June 12, 2004
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/12/busin ... anted=3&hp

"The decline of oil and gas will affect the world population more than climate change"
https://tinyurl.com/y9vjsms2

In January 2001, the U.S.
Department of Energy estimated the world's supply of unexploited oil reserves the world supply of oil will be totally exhausted 35 years from now (June 2003).
http://members.aol.com/mpwright9/oil.html

World oil and gas 'running out'
Thursday, October 2, 2003 Posted: 1245 GMT ( 8:45 PM HKT)
https://tinyurl.com/y9vjsms2

The Oil Crunch
Published: May 7, 2004
The question, instead, is when the trend in oil prices will turn decisively upward. That upward turn is in-evitable as a growing world economy confronts a resource in limited supply. But when will it happen? Maybe it already has.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/07/opinion/07KRUG.html

Natural gas markets undergo turbulent transition as domestic production declines
Tuesday, December 16, 2003
https://tinyurl.com/ybpe8z7o

"Texas' oil resource is pretty well picked over,"
https://tinyurl.com/y7zcarzf

Oman's Oil Yield Long in Decline, Shell Data Show
Published: April 8, 2004
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/08/busin ... IL.html?hp

Half of Texas’s oil wells have dried up in the past 40 years and there are very few new ones.
https://tinyurl.com/y7zcarzf

Tight Oil Supply Won't Ease Soon
Published: May 16, 2004
Two dollars for a gallon of gas? Get used to it. High fuel prices are here to stay, at least for the near future, because no relief is in sight for tight oil supplies.
https://tinyurl.com/ylpmx5z

The end of the Fossil Fuel era is upon us so what are we going to do next-?
:?:

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Post #2

Post by 2ndRateMind »

justme2 wrote:
The end of the Fossil Fuel era is upon us so what are we going to do next-?
:?:
Renewables, (wind, solar, hydro, tidal etc) which, if we had wanted to save the world from climate catastrophe, is what we should have been doing 20-40 years ago.

Otherwise, you can just prepare for 'the end of the world as we know it', (teotwawki) which is what the mormons have always done. Seems to me that when it happens, it will be the mormons and the cockroaches that survive. Which you prefer to finally inherit the earth once and for all depends on your own set of values. But at least cockroaches don't have a misguided religious agenda.

Best wishes, 2RM.

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Re: End of oil is around the corner~~~what do we do ?

Post #3

Post by wiploc »

justme2 wrote: Oil is a resource… it will run out
Peak oil is a thing. It will happen soon or late, and nothing can change that.

And it will be huge, traumatic, a shock to the whole world.

This is important, see. So it is wrong to trivialize it by sounding ignorant when you raise the topic.

Oil production will peak while demand continues to rise. Prices will spike.

Imagine gas priced between ten and a hundred dollars a gallon. And all other products trying to jump similarly, because fuel is needed to make and transport them.

This is coming, and it's important, so stop talking about running out of oil. That's not possible; it's not coming; and claiming that it's coming makes you sound like an alarmist. People will discount your warning when they should be heeding it.

The day is not coming when someone says, "Well, that was the last barrel of oil. You may as well shut down all the machinery in the world."

The day that is coming--and much sooner than that day would come--is the day when somebody says, "Fourteen months from now, demand will outstrip supply. Unless we reduce consumption by raising prices, we're going to wind up with shortages, rationing, gas lines, frozen water lines, the depopulation of Alaska and Siberia, and industries that have to shut down even though they'd be happy to pay for fuel if we had enough to give to them. So let's double the prices now, and tell people why, and see how much, in this new era, people are willing to pay for fuel, and how much they buy at the new price. If they still want too much, we'll have to double the price again, and so on. "

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Re: End of oil is around the corner~~~what do we do ?

Post #4

Post by Divine Insight »

justme2 wrote: The end of the Fossil Fuel era is upon us so what are we going to do next-?
Historically humans have proven to be stupid. Apparently we'll just continue to behave the way we currently behave until our social structure suddenly collapses. And then our civilization will become extinct. Just like thousands of civilizations before us have done.

People take everything for granted. That's just the way it is. We've actually gotten ourselves into a situation where there is much we can do about it. We've become totally dependent upon fossil fuels. And so when they run out we'll be in seriously bad shape.

Fortunately for me, I'm near the end of my life and never had any children. So I'll most likely be dead and gone before things get really bad. :D

But there are a lot of people out there who are having even more children as we speak.

Keep in mind that running out of fuel wouldn't even be a problem if the world wasn't so over-populated. That's the "real" problem.

It's not just that we are running out of fossil fuels, but we are also continuing to increase the population.

Thankfully I can't be blamed for having any part of that. :D

I did my part by not creating any new humans on earth. So I've already made my contribution to the problem. I'll soon be dead, and then no one can point any fingers of blame on me. O:)

I was also far below average on my fuel consumption. I have three cars which may seem like a lot of pollution. But I only drive one at a time and I hardly go anywhere. I use far less gasoline than most people. Especially now that I'm retired.

By the way, one way we could address these problems is to have people work from home so they don't need to drive to and from work everyday.

I'd be more than happy to work from home, but finding a decent paying work-from-home job is not easy. In fact, it's actually quite difficult. Most companies aren't interested in hiring people to work from home.

Why aren't we at least pursuing that goal? Just think if we could get even half the people to work from home who currently drive to work everyday we will have cut the automotive gasoline usage in half already.

So why aren't we looking into having people work from home?

We don't seem to be doing much of anything to address these problems. There are tons of things we could be doing but aren't doing.
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justme2
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Re: End of oil is around the corner~~~what do we do ?

Post #5

Post by justme2 »

wiploc wrote: So let's double the prices now, and tell people why, and see how much, in this new era, people are willing to pay for fuel, and how much they buy at the new price. If they still want too much, we'll have to double the price again, and so on. "

Where will the profits go when you double the price?

justme2
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Post #6

Post by justme2 »

Monaco—
Since 1994, the Government has been encouraging the use of clean energy vehicles in the Principality, in particular by granting purchasing subsidies. The Government wished to adapt the scale of subsidies to take account of the increased availability of hybrid versions, as this had led to the granting of subsidies to vehicles that cause too much pollution. With this in mind, the State took note of incentive schemes in operation in neighbouring countries, especially in France. It also demonstrated a more proactive policy, modifying these policies to suit the needs of Monaco – a step that continues to favour electric technology.

In this new scheme, subsidies for electric vehicles are still 30% of the purchase price including all taxes, with a ceiling of 9,000 Euros. There is a ceiling of 3,000 Euros for two-wheeled vehicles.

Electric vehicles also benefit from specific advantages, such as free recharging at the 574 charging points in public car parks, and at the fast and semi-fast charging points on public roads: at the lower end of Rue Grimaldi, on Place des Moulins and at 24 Avenue de Fontvieille (in front of the Single Buoy Mooring building). They also have their own special identification, "VE" (for véhicule électrique - electric vehicle), which offers free on-street parking in Monaco and a free annual sticker.
https://tinyurl.com/9ahbdg9

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Post #7

Post by justme2 »

China plans ban on petrol and diesel cars
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-sty ... -1.3215796

China looks at ending sales of gasoline cars
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/busin ... 105462466/

China to ban all petrol and diesel cars
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 38726.html

China to plow $361 billion into renewable fuel by 2020 | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN14P06P

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Post #8

Post by justme2 »

Germany going renewable


Germany nearly reached 100 percent renewable power on Sunday
by Craig Morris
11 May 2016
After surpassing 80 percent renewable electricity for a few hours last year, Germany may have briefly reached around 95 percent on May 8. But the news is not only cause for celebration – a boundary has also been crossed. We are now entering the hard territory. Craig Morris explains.

On Monday, both Agora Energiewende (a Berlin-based think tank) and Clean Energy Wire (an associated communications team) announced that renewable electricity “probably� covered more than 90 percent of power demand at 58 GW for a couple of hours on Sunday. Yet Agora’s press spokesperson was notably circumspect: “It is far from certain the share was above 90 percent.� He was cautious for good reason. By the end of the day, Agora’s website showed a much different estimate of power demand peaking at 68 GW.
https://tinyurl.com/mm9zkt7

shnarkle
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Re: End of oil is around the corner~~~what do we do ?

Post #9

Post by shnarkle »

[Replying to post 1 by justme2]

While I don't disagree with the forecast, I do disagree with the conclusion that we need to do anything about it due to the fact that the economy will collapse long before we run out of oil.

So why does this matter? Becuase if your economy collapses, your money is worthless. You can't buy oil with worthless money. Growing your own food doesn't require oil, so most people will have bigger problems than worrying about how much oil is left to burn by those who can afford it.

The 1% are called the 1% because that number will never grow. The number of those sliding out of the middle class and into poverty is the number that is growing which renders oil conssumption and depletion a problem for those who have no debt, probably around $100k saved, and 30% of that in multiple passive income streams that will not be effected by an economic collapse. Even that's going to require sacrifices to be made, and even then as more and more people can't afford to use oil, the price will plummet for those who can afford it which again is only going to be an ever dwindling percentage of the population.

Ultimately, the 1% and those in poverty will not be affected in the slightest. Only those who are working themselves into an early grave to keep up with the Jones are going to have to deal with it.

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Re: End of oil is around the corner~~~what do we do ?

Post #10

Post by thomasdixon »

shnarkle wrote: Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:40 am [Replying to post 1 by justme2]

While I don't disagree with the forecast, I do disagree with the conclusion that we need to do anything about it due to the fact that the economy will collapse long before we run out of oil.
Your doomsday response is not helpful. Most of the ones in the know agree that electric cars/trucks is the future of transportation. China is pumping tons of money in renewables & electric transportation.

I have an idea concerning electric cars.
I envision you drive up to your filling station, much like a gas station today. There are alignment tracks that you drive along and then the red-light pops on saying “STOP”. Much like a car wash. You put on your parking brake, a machine reaches up under your car and removes a large, discharged battery and a charged one is put in to replace the discharged one. Within ten (10) minutes or less you have exchanged your discharged battery with a charged one. Now off you go with a 300-mile charged battery.
:D

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