Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

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Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Trump in a landslide
0
No votes
Trump comfortably
2
22%
Trump in a close election
3
33%
Biden in a close election
2
22%
Biden comfortably
2
22%
Biden in a landslide
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 9

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Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Post #1

Post by historia »

Early polls (137 days before the election) show Biden leading. But who wins comes November?

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Re: Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Post #2

Post by koko »





Recently, there was a vote in Georgia and the outcome was questionable at best. Many voting facilities were closed which kept people from voting. Ballots were found in Maryland and went uncounted. In past elections a person living in District A goes to vote and is told to go to District B. When he goes there he is told to return to District A but by that time he gets back the polls are closed. In Wisconsin during the 2016 elections, over 20,000 Democratic votes were disqualified despite shaky or non existent grounds for doing so. Touch screens are programmed so that if you input blue it may automatically cast a red vote. There is just no way to insure we get an accurate count.

The polls all forecasted an easy win for Hillary in 2016. Somehow, she "lost" despite all the indications she would win. The polls today, again, show Biden is ahead of Trump. But these polls mean absolutely NOTHING because they do not forecast how many votes will be suppressed or be programmed to vote incorrectly.

For those reasons I believe Trump will again "win" in November despite his many failings and shear political incompetence.

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Re: Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Post #3

Post by historia »

koko wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:00 pm

The polls all forecasted an easy win for Hillary in 2016.
That's not entirely accurate. A minority of 2016 polls showed Trump ahead. And, more importantly, analysts at the time cautioned that Trump was just a normal polling error behind Clinton.

Moreover, the 2016 polls fluctuated considerably with the news cycle. This is consistent with an open-seat election, where voters are deciding between two (in that case historically unpopular) candidates.

2020, on the other hand, is shaping up to be a typical referendum on the incumbent. Voters have had a long time to decide whether they want four more years of Trump or not, and the polls this time around are, for that reason, more stable.

At this point in the 2016 election, Clinton was up 4-5 points nationally. The final national polls showed her up 3 points, and she ended-up finishing 2 points ahead of Trump in the popular vote, while narrowly losing the electoral college. By comparison, Biden is currently up 9-10 points over Trump nationally, and ahead in every swing state poll.

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Re: Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Post #4

Post by historia »

Okay, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict a comfortable Biden victory.

I think the Trump campaign is in serious trouble.

He's always been a divisive and unpopular candidate. In 2016, a number of (largely white, blue-collar) voters took a chance on him -- or at least decided to vote against Clinton -- allowing him to squeak-out a narrow victory. A reelection bid was therefore always going to be an uphill battle.

And yet, he has done precisely nothing to expand his voter base over the past four years. If anything, his actions have only driven (largely suburban, female) voters away from him.

As long as the economy was doing well, he could make a case for maintaining the status quo. But 2020 has brought a confluence of acute crises, exposing Trump's inexperience and, frankly, unfitnesses for the office.

We're still four months away from the election, and, as everyone keeps reminding us, a lot could happen between now and then. But his approval and polling numbers are absolutely tanking. He's going to need a major, unforeseen event to turn this around.

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Re: Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Post #5

Post by koko »

historia wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:27 pm
Okay, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict a comfortable Biden victory.

I think the Trump campaign is in serious trouble.

He's always been a divisive and unpopular candidate. In 2016, a number of (largely white, blue-collar) voters took a chance on him -- or at least decided to vote against Clinton -- allowing him to squeak-out a narrow victory. A reelection bid was therefore always going to be an uphill battle.

And yet, he has done precisely nothing to expand his voter base over the past four years. If anything, his actions have only driven (largely suburban, female) voters away from him.

As long as the economy was doing well, he could make a case for maintaining the status quo. But 2020 has brought a confluence of crises, exposing Trump's inexperience and, frankly, fitnesses for the office.

We're still four months away from the election, and, as everyone keeps reminding us, a lot could happen between now and then. But his approval ratings and polls are absolutely tanking. He's going to need a major, unforeseen event to turn this around.


Biden may be ahead for now but you never know what will happen next. The Republicans swift boated Kerry who had been predicted to win, and they began a late pizza scandal on top of the Benghazi scandal against Hillary which cost her many votes. All of these scandals were easily refuted but Republicans chose to ignore the truth. This notwithstanding Republican readiness to side step all the consulate deaths caused by Bush, his failure to prevent 9/11, and his two useless wars that did not make America safer but made things worse all over the world. Hate to say it but Republicans are readily disposed to believe anything that their fellow right wingers say about the Dems even though there isn't a word of truth in none of that propaganda.

I predict we will soon have another FAKE NEWS scandal cooked up by the Republican liars. And right wingers will believe it despite not having a shred of evidence to prove the claim to be made.

Suburban voters, in particular female voters went blue? Despite all of Trump's incompetence, for the most part Republicans remained loyal to their party in the last election here in Minnesota. I see no evidence that they will vote blue in November but will keep you posted if anything in this regard changes.

Re the economy, yes it has fallen badly. Worse drop since the Republican caused Great Depression and it stands to get worse. So what is the Republican response? BLAME DEMOCRATS! BLAME LIBERALS! BLAME OBAMA! BLAME SOCIAL JUSTICE WARRIORS! Now look at the placards carried by the anti-maskers - thousands of signs with these messages and those fools actually believe it! Virus contamination increases and some again blame the Democrats. When governors again close down public facilities, somehow, again, it's BLAME DEMOCRATS! But don't you dare blame the untouchable Trump.

All this and the fact that Republicans suppress votes, deny people the right to vote, close down voting booths, discard absentee ballots, allow people to get sick (note how the amount of sickness is FAR more widespread among minority communities - ask yourself, how will they be aboe to vote when sick?), do not change the law to force employers to allow time for voting, change voting polls from one neighbrohood into another part of town so as to make the booths inaccessible, etc. So far, I see nothing to give me even the slightest degree of optimism that this will be a fair vote and that Biden will win one for America. Instead, I see another "win" for Trump and still another loss for America.

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Re: Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Post #6

Post by historia »

koko wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:05 pm

The Republicans swift boated Kerry who had been predicted to win
Sure, politics can sometimes be rough. See, for example, what the Democrats did to Romney in 2012.

But the polls in 2004 never showed Kerry with a commanding lead:

Image

Compare that to the polls so far for 2020:

Image
koko wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:05 pm

I predict we will soon have another FAKE NEWS scandal cooked up by the Republican liars.
The Trump campaign will certainly try to negatively define Biden. The problem they face is that Trump is an extraordinarily undisciplined candidate who often undermines his own campaign's messaging by either contradicting it outright or saying something outrageous that distracts from it.
koko wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:05 pm

Suburban voters, in particular female voters went blue?
Yes, see the 2018 election.
koko wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:05 pm

All this and the fact that Republicans suppress votes, deny people the right to vote, close down voting booths, discard absentee ballots, allow people to get sick (note how the amount of sickness is FAR more widespread among minority communities - ask yourself, how will they be aboe to vote when sick?), do not change the law to force employers to allow time for voting, change voting polls from one neighbrohood into another part of town so as to make the booths inaccessible, etc.
To be honest, you kind of sound like Trump here. He's also intent on preemptively claiming that the election is rigged and his opponents are cheaters.
Last edited by historia on Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:41 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Post #7

Post by koko »

historia,


Sure, politics can sometimes be rough. See, for example, what the Democrats did to Romney in 2012.


Actually, the Romney campaign screwed itself:

https://www.boston.com/uncategorized/no ... dent-obama


That certainly was not the fault of the Dems and they did not swift boat him at all.



While it is true Kerry did not have a massive lead, still there is no question that he led in the polls. Then came the swift boating and you know what happened next.


Trump is an extraordinarily undisciplined candidate who often undermines his own campaign's messaging by either contradicting it outright or saying something outrageous that distracts from it.

That much is true. However, up to now, his favorability numbers were not negativiley impacted. With his incredibly stupid hamdling of the plague crisis, the numbers have declined.



2018 election

Trump still controls the Senate. This is how his regime has imposed all those reactionary right wing judges into court positions which have and will continue to undermine cosntitutional rights.



To be honest, you kind of sound like Trump here. He's also intent on preemptively claiming that the election is rigged and his opponents are cheaters.

Except that I'm predicting he will still "win" by cheating. This is something he will never admit to.

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Re: Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Post #8

Post by historia »

koko wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:22 pm
historia wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 6:55 pm

Sure, politics can sometimes be rough. See, for example, what the Democrats did to Romney in 2012.
Actually, the Romney campaign screwed itself
All campaigns make mistakes. Kerry's did too.
koko wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:22 pm

That certainly was not the fault of the Dems and they did not swift boat him at all.
On the contrary, Harry Reid's patently false claim on the floor of the Senate that Romney had not paid any taxes the past decade and the Democratic attempt to turn "binders full of women" into some kind of misogynistic act (when it was the exact opposite) are clearly unfair and untrue political attacks (i.e., 'swift-boating').
koko wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:22 pm

While it is true Kerry did not have a massive lead, still there is no question that he led in the polls.
I would invite you to look at the 2004 polls again:

Image

Bush and Kerry were effectively tied for much of 2004, with the polling average swinging between them regularly throughout the spring and summer. At no point did Kerry have an unquestioned lead.
koko wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:22 pm
historia wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 6:55 pm

Trump is an extraordinarily undisciplined candidate who often undermines his own campaign's messaging by either contradicting it outright or saying something outrageous that distracts from it.
That much is true. However, up to now, his favorability numbers were not negativiley impacted. With his incredibly stupid hamdling of the plague crisis, the numbers have declined.
I'm not sure what you mean by this. His approval numbers have been bad throughout his presidency. They've declined considerably in the past few months, but have been even lower at other points in his term.
koko wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:22 pm
historia wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 6:55 pm
koko wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:05 pm

Suburban voters, in particular female voters went blue?
Yes, see the 2018 election.
Trump still controls the Senate.
That doesn't tell us how suburban women voted in 2018 or how they are likely to vote in 2020.

In 2018, 40 House seats, largely in suburban districts, shifted to the Democrats. Trump's polls poorly among suburban women.

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Re: Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Post #9

Post by koko »

historia wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:03 am
All campaigns make mistakes. Kerry's did too.

On the contrary, Harry Reid's patently false claim on the floor of the Senate that Romney had not paid any taxes the past decade and the Democratic attempt to turn "binders full of women" into some kind of misogynistic act (when it was the exact opposite) are clearly unfair and untrue political attacks (i.e., 'swift-boating').


Bush and Kerry were effectively tied for much of 2004, with the polling average swinging between them regularly throughout the spring and summer. At no point did Kerry have an unquestioned lead.


Trump is an extraordinarily undisciplined candidate who often undermines his own campaign's messaging by either contradicting it outright or saying something outrageous that distracts from it.

I'm not sure what you mean by this. His approval numbers have been bad throughout his presidency. They've declined considerably in the past few months, but have been even lower at other points in his term.

Yes, see the 2018 election.

That doesn't tell us how suburban women voted in 2018 or how they are likely to vote in 2020.

In 2018, 40 House seats, largely in suburban districts, shifted to the Democrats. Trump's polls poorly among suburban women.

The facts how Kerry did have a double digit lead:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/10687/kerr ... oters.aspx


Gallup is the most reliable poll anywhere and that is what they reported.


Kerry mistakes? Sure. They remained silent in the face of the swift boat attacks. Double digit lead disappeared virtually overnight.


I dispute the claim that Reid's comment impacted on Romney. Instead it was the latter 47% comment that screwed him:

https://www.google.com/search?q=Romney+ ... e&ie=UTF-8


His comment was a complete disaster which destroyed his campaign.



Trump's numbers were stlil basically at 50%. Only now have they fallen below that figure. But knowing how right wingers are predisposed to believe anything, I say this is no time for Dems to stand by and to believe they have an easy win in November. Watch the news. Dont be too surprised if Republicans cook up another scandal soon and that it will have a significant impact on the election.



As for the 2018 election yes it is true that Dems won the House. But that's the norm in off year elections. They still lost the Senate and the majority of state legislatures and governorships.

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Re: Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Post #10

Post by AgnosticBoy »

[Replying to historia in post #1]
Biden has lost two or three presidential campaigns. He has a losing record, the Democrats lack enthusiasm in him, and he has a sexual assault allegation against him along with multiple women who feel uncomfortable around him. So yeah, he will lose big time.

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