Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

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Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Trump in a landslide
1
8%
Trump comfortably
4
33%
Trump in a close election
3
25%
Biden in a close election
2
17%
Biden comfortably
2
17%
Biden in a landslide
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 12

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historia
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Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Post #1

Post by historia »

Early polls (137 days before the election) show Biden leading. But who wins comes November?

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Re: Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Post #51

Post by AgnosticBoy »

bjs1 wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:27 pm I think that Biden will win the election comfortably.

At this point I do not see a way forward for Trump.

The things that excite Trump’s base are the same things which repel independents and moderate Republicans. Trump cannot dramatically change course without upsetting his base, and he cannot attract enough support to win a general election with the course that he is on.

Politically, I would compare Donald Trump to Bernie Sanders. Their political positions are, in most cases, far from each other, but the two men share the same strengths and weaknesses. Both have a loyal, passionate base that will stand by their candidate no matter what and seem genuinely confused why more people are not in favor of their candidate. However, both Trump and Sanders are extremely unpopular with those who are not a part of their base. Neither candidate has been able to attract strong support among the general electorate. Most notably, neither Trump nor Sanders is popular among independent voters. Independents make up 36% of the electorate, which is more than either Democrats (31%) or Republicans (30%).

Obviously a lot could change in the next few months, but I cannot think of anything that Trump could do which would result in his victory in November. A major legislative victory would be helpful, but Trump was only able to get a few big victories when Republicans controlled both the House and the Senate. Democratic control of the House all but guarantees that Trump will not have any major legislative wins this year. Revitalizing the economy might save Trump, but at this point that is beyond his control. The pandemic has taken control of the economy out of the hands of all lawmakers.

So, barring a significant unforeseen event, Biden will win comfortably.
As an independent I can honestly say that I dislike Trump's character but not so much his policies. The media makes the mistake of focusing on his character, but I focus more on his policies and that of Joe biden's. And so far I am not impressed by Joe Biden.

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Re: Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Post #52

Post by Deeogee »

[Replying to bjs1 in post #50]

I'm not sure how he arrived at his conclusion. It is my understanding that polls are a snapshot in time of the race. I believe Florida Dude is looking at the end of the race. You might contact him and ask him how he came to his conclusion. He has evidently been correct on several other matters.
You purified your souls in obeying the truth...being born again. (1Peter 1:22,23)

koko

Re: Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Post #53

Post by koko »

I just checked that Floridadude site and found that it was full of sarcasm and obvious exaggerations. Therefore, I am not sure that it has any credibility. Recall, however, when I did say previously that I thought Trump would "win" owing to irregularities and other things Democrats are disregarding.

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Re: Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Post #54

Post by AgnosticBoy »

Deeogee wrote: Fri Jul 17, 2020 3:51 pm [Replying to bjs1 in post #50]

I'm not sure how he arrived at his conclusion. It is my understanding that polls are a snapshot in time of the race. I believe Florida Dude is looking at the end of the race. You might contact him and ask him how he came to his conclusion. He has evidently been correct on several other matters.
You're making some good points here. It shows the folly of thinking that someone will win based on current polling. Polls can and do change. I'd even argue that a prediction or campaigning should not be based solely on polls because polls are not always right.

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Re: Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Post #55

Post by historia »

Deeogee wrote: Fri Jul 17, 2020 3:51 pm
bjs1 wrote: Fri Jul 17, 2020 12:14 pm
Deeogee wrote: Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:56 am

I am curious how they came to that conclusion. A survey of current polls from fivethrityeight found that Biden is leading Trump by an average of just over 9 points in the polls.
I'm not sure how he arrived at his conclusion. It is my understanding that polls are a snapshot in time of the race. I believe Florida Dude is looking at the end of the race.
I think you've misunderstood. FloridaDude297 is an anonymous Twitter user who claims to do his own polling. That's why he refers to it as the "Florida Dude Poll."

Nobody can "look at the end of the race," since that is, you know, in the future.
AgnosticBoy wrote: Fri Jul 17, 2020 7:57 pm
You're making some good points here. It shows the folly of thinking that someone will win based on current polling.
Again, just so we're all clear, Deeogee is citing an anonymous Twitter user who is making a projection about the presidential race based on current polling that this anonymous Twitter user claims to have conducted himself.

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Re: Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Post #56

Post by AgnosticBoy »

woodtick wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:01 am Biden won't win because he has the onset of dementia and there's a good chance the DNC will choose someone else.
Based on my assessment, Joe Biden has more than just dementia going on. I've observed the way he walks. His walk looks very weak, like he's taking careful steps or like his legs are about to give out from under him. Perhaps he's had a mild stroke in his history.

Now compare that to how Trump walks, which is steady, strong, and with good posture. Just look at how he walked from the White House to St. John's Episcopal Church. I'd really like to see Biden do that.

You can tell a lot about a man based on how he walks, and I believe that's one reason a lot of people will be hesitant to vote for Biden.

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Re: Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Post #57

Post by woodtick »

Last edited by woodtick on Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

koko

Re: Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Post #58

Post by koko »

If gaffes are proof of dementia then Trump is in big trouble:


https://www.brut.media/us/news/5-of-pre ... b71e09e497





He had made more gaffes than Biden!

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Re: Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Post #59

Post by AgnosticBoy »

koko wrote: Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:44 pm If gaffes are proof of dementia then Trump is in big trouble:


https://www.brut.media/us/news/5-of-pre ... b71e09e497





He had made more gaffes than Biden!
Everyone can make a gaffe but Biden has made some big ones. It's more about the severity of the gaffe instead of just the frequency of them. They are big and consistent enough to raise questions about his cognitive health. I almost feel sorry for the guy.

In 1988, Biden suffered two brain aneurysms, one on the right side and one on the left. Each required surgery with high risk of long-term impact on brain functionality.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Bid ... ctionality

Nuff said.

koko

Re: Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Post #60

Post by koko »

FDR and LBJ also had life threatening illnesses but they overcame these difficulties. That is proof that with good general health, good care, and a strong will, such crises can be overcome. No matter who is in office, I wish they all good health.

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