Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

[historia]

Early polls (137 days before the election) show Biden leading. But who wins comes November?

[koko]

I agree that the mythic sexual allegations will be made against Biden. This while the many more allegations against Trump will be ignored. Part of the reason for this is the fact that Democrats are far more moral and imposed a higher standard of conduct upon themselves than do the Republican Pharisees. This will definitely cost Biden a few votes and, if anything, give more votes for Trump because his misconduct is view as inspiration by many right wingers.

[AgnosticBoy]

I agree that the mythic sexual allegations will be made against Biden.

"Mythic"? The standard of Democrats is that all women are telling the truth, by default. I'd like Joe to take a lie detector test and then we can go from there. Let the FBI investigate. The last thing we need is another Bill Clinton in office, especially when people are pushing for him to pick a woman vice president.

[historia]

The facts how Kerry did have a double digit lead:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/10687/kerr ... oters.aspx

Gallup is the most reliable poll anywhere and that is what they reported.

Kerry mistakes? Sure. They remained silent in the face of the swift boat attacks. Double digit lead disappeared virtually overnight.

This is cherry-picking the data. It's true that that one Gallup poll in February 2004 showed Kerry up 12 points. But the Gallup poll at the end of March showed Bush up four. And the one in August -- right before the first swift-boat ads aired -- showed Bush up six.

Your contention, then, that Kerry had a double-digit lead that "disappeared virtually overnight" due to the swift-boat ads is simply contradicted by the polling data.

At this point in the 2004 election, the race was effectively tied. The 2020 election is not.

I dispute the claim that Reid's comment impacted on Romney.

So your argument is that the Democratic attempts to swift-boat Romney were not as impactful, not that they didn't try to swift-boat him. Several of the attacks on Romney in 2012 were simply unfair or untrue.

Trump's numbers were stlil basically at 50%. Only now have they fallen below that figure.

This is simply mistaken. See the 538 presidential approval ratings. Trump's approval rating has, on average, been underwater his entire term, and at various points has been even lower than it is now, although it is plummeting at the moment.

As for the 2018 election yes it is true that Dems won the House. But that's the norm in off year elections.

A 40-seat swing is not normal, though, it is exceptional. And the exit polls showed that it was largely suburban women breaking toward the Democrats that caused that shift.

Trump's polling among that same group is historically bad for a Republican, and, unless something dramatically changes, could single-handedly cause him to lose several swing states in 2020.

They still lost the Senate and the majority of state legislatures and governorships.

Only 1/3 of the Senate is up for reelection every election cycle, so it is not as useful a bell-weather of national trends as the House. And the Democrats flipped seven governorships in 2018. Republicans successfully defended several, but gained only one (from an independent).

[historia]

The last thing we need is another Bill Clinton in office

You do realize that Donald Trump is president, right?

[koko]

I agree that the mythic sexual allegations will be made against Biden.

"Mythic"? The standard of Democrats is that all women are telling the truth, by default. I'd like Joe to take a lie detector test and then we can go from there. Let the FBI investigate. The last thing we need is another Bill Clinton in office, especially when people are pushing for him to pick a woman vice president.

Lie detector? Too bad we didn't use it during Bush's campaign of lies which said there were WMD all over Iraq. Tens of thousands of lives would have been saved.

[koko]

The last thing we need is another Bill Clinton in office

You do realize that Donald Trump is president, right?

Trump's economic record is worse than Hoover's but many Republicans feel that is OK.

[koko]

This is cherry-picking the data. It's true that that one Gallup poll in February 2004 showed Kerry up 12 points. But the Gallup poll at the end of March showed Bush up four. And the one in August -- right before the first swift-boat ads aired -- showed Bush up six.

Your contention, then, that Kerry had a double-digit lead that "disappeared virtually overnight" due to the swift-boat ads is simply contradicted by the polling data.

At this point in the 2004 election, the race was effectively tied. The 2020 election is not.

I dispute the claim that Reid's comment impacted on Romney.

So your argument is that the Democratic attempts to swift-boat Romney were not as impactful, not that they didn't try to swift-boat him. Several of the attacks on Romney in 2012 were simply unfair or untrue.

Trump's numbers were stlil basically at 50%. Only now have they fallen below that figure.

This is simply mistaken. See the 538 presidential approval ratings. Trump's approval rating has, on average, been underwater his entire term, and at various points has been even lower than it is now, although it is plummeting at the moment.

As for the 2018 election yes it is true that Dems won the House. But that's the norm in off year elections.

A 40-seat swing is not normal, though, it is exceptional. And the exit polls showed that it was largely suburban women breaking toward the Democrats that caused that shift.

Trump's polling among that same group is historically bad for a Republican, and, unless something dramatically changes, could single-handedly cause him to lose several swing states in 2020.

They still lost the Senate and the majority of state legislatures and governorships.

Only 1/3 of the Senate is up for reelection every election cycle, so it is not as useful a bell-weather of national trends as the House. And the Democrats flipped seven governorships in 2018. Republicans successfully defended several, but gained only one (from an independent).

In late February, Ralph Nader decided to get into the election and he siphoned off some votes from Kerry. Ultimately he got close to 500,000 and it may have impacted on Kerry's poll numbers and election votes. It will be recalled that he got 100,000 votes in Florida in 2000 and Bush defeated Gore by only 500 votes. This after the state purged 100K voters from its rolls (mostly Dems). There were similar complaints in other states. I know that here in Minnesota people tried but could not vote in 2004 because the lines were too long and they had to go to work (I got to work very late that day but now use absentee ballots even though there is no proof they will be counted). This in the city ghettos such as where I live. No such problem in the suburban Republican districts.

Then there is the problem of supposedly "flawed" polls:

https://www.issuelab.org/resources/1297/1297.pdf

I've seen several links on this matter. That while Kerry's numbers were higher in Feb before Nader joined in, the polls taken thereafter were simply more accurate. Now, I have absolutely no expertise on this and will allow the experts to battle it out over these findings. Evidently, you know more about this than I do and maybe can explain it better. Just for the record, I did not know at that time which polls were more accurate. I based my posting on this thread on the facts as I knew them from that time so that the questionable accuracy is something new and strange to me.

Re the 40 seat swing, I remember having a discussion about Pennsylvania's vote. There, a couple of Republican districts went blue. However, these were moderate Republicans who lost their seats. Conservatives retained theirs and got seniority in committee assignments. Again, the Republicans still hold the Senate, the majority of governorships, and majority of state legislatures. I simply do not see any indication that Trump will lose these offices and this election. And remember as you pointed out, the Swift boating took place VERY late in the campaign. Republicans (the part of moral Christianity) are very capable of engaging in more such nonsense. In fact, I hereby predict that they will create one and smear Biden. This will also cost him votes. You may bet the farm on it.

[koko]

Professor whose studies predicted 24 of 26 elections predicts Trump to win:


https://video.foxbusiness.com/v/6168973 ... show-clips



Model projects 91% chance Trump will get re-elected
Jul. 02, 2020 - 7:49 - Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth says the battleground state polls in 2016 were 'way off' and that his model has correctly predicted 24 out of 26 of the past presidential elections.


From reviewing the video, I feel it is in line with accurate predictions made in the past. There simply is nothing in the polls today, nothing in the news, no social trends that I see, nothing which even begins to convince me that Biden has a chance to win in November. And the campaign has hadly even started. Just wait until Republicans cook up another fake news scandal as it will bring them hundreds of thousands if not millions of votes.

[AgnosticBoy]

Early polls (137 days before the election) show Biden leading. But who wins comes November?

Just speaking to the nature of predictions....no one should be putting 100% confidence in their predictions. Since Trump has a chance to win, then the reasons cited here for his potential victory can not be dismissed entirely.


Yet we find Democrats here arguing as if their predictions are infallible and all reasons offered for why Trump would win are wrong. That's a bad way of thinking.

[historia]

no one should be putting 100% confidence in their predictions.

. . .

Yet we find Democrats here arguing as if their predictions are infallible and all reasons offered for why Trump would win are wrong.

Who is doing this?