Global change

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Willum
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Global change

Post #1

Post by Willum »

Not making judgments yet, but the character of the gross domestic product and and global temperature change have the same character and change at the same time.

If you take out the Solar fluctuations they are spot on.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/ ... 201312.png

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sb1ihgap_PE/T ... .48+AM.png

Carbon dioxide, if it were the cause, wouldn't cause fluctuations.

So, there are bunches of lies on both sides of the arguments, as demonstrated by there being arguments for so long.

Instead of CO2 causing heating, I think heat, from burning fuels causes heating, flying in the face of common ill-wisdom.

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Re: Global change

Post #21

Post by Willum »

[Replying to post 20 by Excubis]

Me, get the idea?
No, don't you realize are two sides to what is no longer Global Warming, but Climate Change issue?
If you are saying there is consensus in the community...

It has been in flux for a long time, and if you need references for the basic pro's and con's, then you your perspective is kind of meaningless, isn't it? We're not even talking about them!

Well anyway, you prefer to ignore the OP premise, so why not go elsewhere?

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Re: Global change

Post #22

Post by Guy Threepwood »

[Replying to post 1 by Willum]


Definitely a better correlation than CO2/ temps which shows nothing causal whatsoever, other than that CO2 fluctuations lag temps by about 8 or 900 years. (8 or 900 years ago being the medieval warm period)

But I am going to disagree with you, (that's what we're here for!)

I think yor theory may be like saying eating ice cream causes warm weather...

Warmer weather unambiguously aids economic activity, we all go out and spend more on small and large ticket items, take vacations, crops do better, people are happier.

The 70's were cold, late nineties were warm, 2008 was one of the coldest in recent memory, anecdotally- this year has been the warmest and best I've had for business in ages (construction)

This is borne out historically over longer periods also.

Global warming? I certainly hope so. Next time the opposite happens, we will have some real problems to worry about.

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Re: Global change

Post #23

Post by Willum »

[Replying to post 22 by Guy Threepwood]

Thank you Guy.
However, what you said (1st Paragraph) isn't clear in part, could you elucidate?

The rest, to my eye at least: The cool and warm of the various dates seems to be correlated to fuel(s) consumption, and the Sun.

Now I am only basing this on observation, but (to beat a dead horse) if you add Sun activity to fuel consumption, it looks to me like you get a curve that has the same character as the rise and fall of global temperature.

I also don't understand the ice cream analogy.
So I'll counter with another analogy.
CO2 is an insulator, so the effects on the Earth should be insulation. In equilibrium, an insulator does warm your house... also, CO2 unlike water vapor extends into the upper atmosphere, so it actually shields more radiation, in it's frequency, mind, then it traps.
Water vapor is a more powerful gas, and exists in higher concentrations at lower levels.

Now insulation, you'll agree, stabilizes not heats.
Not the waster heat from fossil fuels and direct heat of the Sun, actually heats.

As counter-concept, where does the heat from the released fuels go? It is completely trumped itself by the Sun's heating, so iaw thermodynamics it should not be released again until it reaches someplace where the Sun's heat is diminished enough that it is competitive. That would be the poles to me.

Since melting is occurring at one pole, not the other...

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Post #24

Post by dianaiad »

Excubis wrote: [Replying to post 19 by Willum]

LMFAO ohhh i use scientific america once, what was the source of that article. No CO2 is not falling out of favour at all, that is conjecture propaganda, post source with facts that have been verified through repeat of he study.........you have not like all deniers. You are a crank nothing more......
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Re: Global change

Post #25

Post by Guy Threepwood »

[Replying to post 23 by Willum]


Sorry, basically I'm talking about correlation- and which way it's working

I agree that economic activity correlates with temps, but it's the higher temps that lead to more economic activity.

This is certainly obvious seasonally, with increased fuel consumption during summer driving season. And so obviously the same happens to a lesser degree, between a cooler and warmer year yes?

And yes I agree, so does the basic science, that as a form of insulation, an enhanced greenhouse effect would raise temps at the poles disproportionately and at altitude- at night, during winter etc.

this would have the effect of subduing violent weather by reducing the warm/cold air mass contrast globally.

We can see this on Venus, 98% CO2, runaway greenhouse effect, several 100's of degrees F... and barely a breath of wind at the surface, because there is barely any temp contrast between poles and equator to drive weather systems.

So ironically this record low tornado and hurricane activity in the US is evidence for global warming!

But were are talking about a little over 1 molecule CO2 in 10000 of air, nowhere near enough to make any noticeable difference to the climate

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Re: Global change

Post #26

Post by bluethread »

Guy Threepwood wrote:
Warmer weather unambiguously aids economic activity, we all go out and spend more on small and large ticket items, take vacations, crops do better, people are happier.
Warmer weather aids all activity. There is a direct correlation between activity and heat. There is plenty of activity one the sun. Or I should say within the sphere of the sun. Yes, there is a temperature range in which certain life forms thrive, i.e. the goldilocks effect. However, that requires one to choose a preferred life form. That, I think, is the crux of the matter. There is a disagreement on whether humans are effecting the earth's environment such that humans can not continue in their preferred lifestyles.
Global warming? I certainly hope so. Next time the opposite happens, we will have some real problems to worry about.
That is the same where I live. Apart from a massive wind storm that has come through in September or October every year for the last three or four years, the climate has improved. Last year we had very little snow, but it rained all spring. So, the wheat harvest was as good as ever, growing on a steady one foot of moisture, rather than the stored three foot of moisture. Yes, there appear to be localized changes, but we are adapting.

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Re: Global change

Post #27

Post by Guy Threepwood »

[Replying to post 26 by bluethread]

That disagreement has been going on since the dawn of civilization.

For thousands of years leaders have taken sacrifices of wealth on behalf of the weather gods, who were supposedly angered by the peoples actions. Similarly with proponents like Al Gore, it's about us giving up our wealth and freedoms, not them

It is literally the most ancient superstition known to mankind, I don't think swapping scary masks and dances for computer simulations makes it any more scientific!

Hmm sounds like you live near me! according to the apple trees it's going to be a rough winter (and they have a much better track record than the climastrologers!)

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Re: Global change

Post #28

Post by Willum »

[Replying to post 25 by Guy Threepwood]

THAT is an excellent point. Warm temperatures do increase human activity.
But that leads to more questions, which is good.

Like, more activity, more CO2, and that non-recursive (for lack of a better word) feedback.

So, what you need me to do is investigate if there are any fuel drivers as opposed to temperature drivers...

What might one be...

I must admit, I'm a little excited. Be back after some research.

<good nature sarcasm> Bluethread, I can't believe you said that after such a scathing refutation! People contesting "Global Warming?"</good nature sarcasm>
LOL, good on you! We may not always agree, but I like your character.

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Re: Global change

Post #29

Post by Guy Threepwood »

[Replying to post 28 by Willum]

There is also the cooling effect of smog, particulates. And the greening effect of increased CO2. And vastly more energy is consumed in heating than cooling needs wordlwide.. lots of factors! and I don't think any computer sim comes close to modelling them accurately enough to build policy on


But in the final analysis, there are several phenomena we know of, that can cool the entire planet several degrees overnight, large meteors, volcanic activity, God forbid nuclear war- these are not computer simulated hypothesis, we're not going to be debating how well polar bears can adapt, we'll be too busy dropping dead of starvation. Other than this, the next glacial period is imminent- geologically speaking, and can descend very rapidly

The problem is, we have no method of warming the planet in an emergency-

But if for some reason we didn't like warmer weather, longer growing seasons, increased economic activity, decreased energy requirements, we could bring back the cold with particulates far more easily

So if we we were somehow able to give ourselves a couple more degrees of warmth for insurance, I think that would be a great thing.

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Re: Global change

Post #30

Post by Willum »

[Replying to Guy Threepwood]

Well, here is another one against CO2.

It is a good time of year to run this experiment.
(Optional) Get a CO2 meter.
You will find CO2 levels are 3-4x greater in your home then outside.
Set your thermostat equal to the outside temperature.

Notice the sensible heat. Turn on a stove and rate how hot the stove feels at regular distances.

Now open the window, use a fan mix the air so CO2 drops. Turn off the AC.

What you will notice is that it feels warmer. If you run the experiment with the stove, you will notice that it does not feel as hot.

Why? because even at 3-4x the concentration of CO2, there is no noticeable effect, but the humidity has gone to outdoor levels, as well (your AC reduces humidity to ~40%) and small changes in humidity have dramatic effects.
Last edited by Willum on Thu Sep 29, 2016 8:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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