Are miracles an 'extraordinary' claim?

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Mithrae
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Are miracles an 'extraordinary' claim?

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Post by Mithrae »

We often hear that 'extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,' but are miracles actually an extraordinary claim in that sense? Obviously they are out of the ordinary in the same way that winning the lottery is out of the ordinary, but I doubt that anyone here is in the habit of demanding "extraordinary evidence" for the fact that people do win the lottery!

I'd invite consideration of three points in partiular:
  • 1 > Miracles do not (or at least don't need to) violate the currently-observed patterns of physics: For example if a transfer of energy had ensured that the Galilean waters had briefly frozen beneath Jesus' feet there'd be no violation of physical law; but that radical reversal of the normal course of events obviously would still be a miracle, still be overwhelming evidence of external agency, even though we couldn't see which strings were pulled to get the job done. Even if the appeal to proscriptive 'laws' of physics were scientifically or philosophically viable to begin with (which it isn't), it simply doesn't apply without first assuming that the strings pulled were violations of those laws!

    2 > Miracles have been reported in many if not all cultures, in all periods of history down to the present: That reported observation of miracles is neither confined to ignorant and superstitious eras nor idiosyncratic of a particular cultural tradition makes the assumption that such reports never have any basis in fact considerably less plausible.

    3 > There appear to be hundreds of thousands of expert reports of observed miracles over the past few decades, even in the USA alone: A 2004 survey by the Louis Finkelstein Institute for Religious and Social Studies and HCD Research "found that 74% of doctors believe that miracles have occurred in the past and 73% believe that can occur today," but in particular that "a majority of doctors (55%) said that they have seen treatment results in their patients that they would consider miraculous." Those results seem to be consistent with additional surveys in 2008 and 2010. Extrapolating from the fact that there are over 1 million doctors in the USA, we can infer well over half a million expert reports of observed miracles in that country over the past few decades.
Obviously miracles aren't very common; even if there were in fact half a million miracles in that timeframe (though reason would suggest that in some cases those reported healings have a 'natural' explanation unknown to that particular doctor, or perhaps even unknown to medical science in general) it would still only be somewhere in the order of one miracle per five hundred US citizens in a lifetime. Plenty of folk would go their whole lives without ever witnessing a miracle, and even without anyone they're really close to witnessing one either. But of course that's true of winning the lottery also.

By the arbitrary standards of 'extraordinary evidence' that are occasionally demanded on this forum it's obvious that no miracle report (or indeed almost anything else) is likely to measure up. Some folk have even said that if millions of Christians suddenly disappeared and the skies over Jerusalem were filled with armies from heaven with Jesus at their head, they still wouldn't consider it evidence of a Christian miracle but simply an alien invasion! There are always going to be alternative 'explanations' for any and all reported observations, however ad hoc and purely speculative those may be.

But does the rationale for demanding extraordinary evidence have any merit in the first place?

Is there any reason - besides naturalistic biases - for supposing that miracles constitute any more of an 'extraordinary claim' than winning the lottery or some other individually improbable but overall almost commonplace kind of occurrence?

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Re: Are miracles an 'extraordinary' claim?

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Post by Tcg »

marco wrote:
"Experts" do not report on miracles - they express ignorance of explanation. If a doctor is surprised by a patient's recovery he has no right to deduce God was involved but he can say that something unusual happened, the explanation for which is not in his text books. Doctors, however much we admire them, are not in possession of all medical answers.
It should also be noted that when a patient dies from a normally benign condition, it is not considered a miracle. All we are observing is the two ends of the probability spectrum.

It is only when the odds swing positively for a given patient that some claim a miracle. To be consistent, they would have to claim the same when the odds swing negatively for a given patient.

Oddly, we don't hear, "Praise God for this miracle, she died when all the odds pointed to sure recovery."


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Re: Are miracles an 'extraordinary' claim?

Post #12

Post by bluegreenearth »

Mithrae wrote:Anyone who's tried to answer a child's endless series of "Why?" questions knows that they'll pretty quickly run headlong into their own ignorance: Asserting that this ignorance is a basis for ruling out any particular theory seems rather laughable.
I don't recall anyone ruling-out anything at this point. There just isn't much anyone can do with an unfalsifiable hypotheses. So, they look for falsifiable explanations instead.
Mithrae wrote:If memory serves scientists are still working on a Theory of Everything, and that theory of 'everything' if and when it comes will account only for the baryonic matter which makes up ~5% of the mass-energy of the observable universe.
Then, scientists will seek out and investigate falsifiable hypotheses to explain the rest of the cosmos. They won't be able to do much with any unfalsifiable hypotheses that are proposed.
Mithrae wrote:If reality were a pool table, we've 'explained' the motion of the blue and red balls by observing that they were hit by the white ball, and you are triumphantly mocking everyone who thought they were moved by an external agency.
The observable motion of the pool balls represents our empirical reality. We can test falsifiable hypotheses within our empirical reality to rule-out all but the most reasonable explanation for observed phenomenon. The scenario where a player hit the cue ball to get all the rest of the pool balls moving represents a proposed metaphysical reality. There are an infinite number of other possible metaphysical realities that could equally account for the observed empirical reality with no way to rule-out any of them to leave us with a single best explanation. As such, we can only speculate about these possible metaphysical realities as an entertaining philosophical exercise, but it has no pragmatic value. From the perspective of the microscopic bacteria on the pool balls, knowledge of whatever it was that got everything moving does not inform any decision they could make within the boundaries of the empirical reality they find themselves.

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Re: Are miracles an 'extraordinary' claim?

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Post by marco »

Zzyzx wrote:
Exactly. However, religion promoters attempt to claim that uncommon events are evidence of supernatural intervention by their favorite invisible, undetectable entity. That is nothing more than 'God of the Gaps' thinking. As knowledge increases the need for 'gods' decreases.
God is still an attractive idea for many, offering free accommodation post mortem or, in the case of Muslim men, unlimited sex for restored corpses, whatever that means. Man has the capacity to hope, to imagine and believe, regardless of how absurd.

Black holes, explored by some of our clever scientists, are as mysterious as miracles, except that we don't need to suppose God built them. Miracles are a measure of man's still primitive thought processes.

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Re: Are miracles an 'extraordinary' claim?

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Post by marco »

Mithrae wrote:

If reality were a pool table, we've 'explained' the motion of the blue and red balls by observing that they were hit by the white ball, and you are triumphantly mocking everyone who thought they were moved by an external agency.
It's not a case of mocking a possible explanation. If we do not know then we cannot rule out the unusual. But why would we align ourselves with caveman mentality and suppose some big being shouts thunder and breathes lightning? And when we have an explanation, we then attribute something else to the invisible being. Such atavistic thinking does not advance civilisation but excuses the worship of oak trees or the belief in sex after death.

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Re: Are miracles an 'extraordinary' claim?

Post #15

Post by marco »

Tcg wrote:

It is only when the odds swing positively for a given patient that some claim a miracle.
The martyr, John Ogilvie, was made a saint last century when a Glasgow man, praying for his intervention, was cured of cancer against the prognosis of his doctors. This miracle was taken as a sign of Ogilvie's sainthood.

We know that the body sometimes produces interferon on its own, and cancer is cured. But a miracle explanation is much, much nicer.

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Re: Are miracles an 'extraordinary' claim?

Post #16

Post by Mithrae »

benchwarmer wrote:
Mithrae wrote: - complex human consciousness developed gradually from non-conscious matter
We have evidence of this, so this claim is not extraordinary or a 'miracle'. Is it a miracle that my fingernails grow?
Here's a touch of irony: I put that one in last, almost as an afterthought, because of all those on the list it is the only one for which there is absolutely zero evidence (it is impossible to observe the absence of consciousness, and its presence is inferred only by analogy which would be obviously fallacious to reverse and infer absence), and arguably the most absurd too (in the other cases we can at least easily imagine ways in which they might mechanically come about, but I cannot even conceive and across dozens of threads have never seen coherently described how the generation of consciousness from non-conscious matter might come about).
benchwarmer wrote:
Mithrae wrote: But for a more specific, slightly different angle, consider the following claims as examples:
- a man walked on water
This, like the rest, require more detail in order to evaluate. Just as I doubt you simply accept every story you hear - especially those with no empirical basis, I'm not entirely sure what your point with this OP is.

Is the claim that a man, with no special apparatus, walked over liquid water deep enough to normally sink into? If so, this is an extraordinary claim. Be definition. i.e. it is not ordinary for men to walk on liquid water and not sink into it.

So, in addition to the basic claim, is there an addendum that also states this is a the work of an invisible deity? i.e. a 'miracle'?

Maybe an advanced race of aliens with tractor beam technology is playing a hoax. That is at least 'plausible'. Much more so than an 'god' with absolutely zero evidence of said god. We at least know lifeforms appear on planets and eventually create technology.
You don't think that a fellow walking on water would be evidence that his god exists and has got his back? One could just as easily point out that we have absolutely zero evidence of organic life outside our planet, while the millions of other reported observations of divine action and experience of divine communication span most if not all cultures and time periods. In other words it seems your answer is shaped by the assumptions you've brought to the table.
benchwarmer wrote:
Mithrae wrote: - a feather dropped as fast as a lead ball
More detail needed. Did this happen in a vacuum? If so, we have empirical evidence of this being possible. If not, shall we simple yell 'godidit!'?
The question isn't what "we" have evidence of; unless you've actually seen that or a similar trick performed (which granted, many of us have) you're ultimately taking other people's word for it. In fact even if you've seen it done, unless you actually set up the experiment yourself you're still taking others' word for it that it's a real feather and lead ball. Obviously this trick is at least as 'extraordinary' as someone walking on water: So do we simply take others' word for it in one case, but not in the other? That would be special pleading. I would argue that the only real difference lies in the quality and quantity of the testimonies available; obviously the word of anonymous ancient religious propagandists doesn't count for much. But if some more credible sources reported observation of a man walking on water, that report should be taken seriously - subjecting the report to additional scepticism based on the suspicion that it may turn out to be evidence of divine intervention would obviously be irrational.
benchwarmer wrote:
Mithrae wrote: - most of the volume of a chair is empty space
Of a given chair? Or chairs in general? You see, each claim needs some detail in order to analyze it. If not, we are simply believing everything we are told with no critical thought.

The volume of a bean bag chair is mostly beans so this claim is demonstrably false in some cases, perfectly correct in others. Are we claiming that by 'miracle' ALL chairs are mostly empty space?
It is true in the case of every chair, table, human body... everything. I'm talking about the fact that molecules themselves are mostly empty space. That seems even more extra-ordinary and even absurd than a feather falling like a lead ball, and it's probably not verified by personal experience for any of us! How can we possibly just take others' word for it that this is what reality is really like? But we do, don't we? I would say that it is actually irrelevant how extraordinary or even absurd such a claim may seem. Only two things matter: 1) Does it directly contradict anything that I already know? 2) What is the quantity and quality of the reports indicating it to be so? At least those are the only things that really matter, though in practice I suppose we could add 3) does it contradict my biases or prejudices. Many sceptics of the miraculous say that they don't profess any knowledge that miracles don't occur... but perhaps the third point still applies.
benchwarmer wrote:
Mithrae wrote: - an incurable disease was suddenly healed, contrary to the known normal course of events
Healed? You mean by active force of something? Do we actually know this or are we guessing? Maybe 50 years from now we will understand exactly why a given case of a disease suddenly turned the corner and the person recovered. In ignorance, shall we simply assume 'godidit!"?
...
Mithrae wrote: - a man regrew an amputated leg overnight, on a local holyday as a result of much prayer
Do we have solid evidence of an amputation and overnight regrowth? Or are we simply asked to believe a story told at a church revival as the money plate is passed around?
We are 'guessing' to greater or lesser extents about literally everything we know besides our own existence and defined truths such as mathematics; a less dismissive term would be 'theorizing.' The Newtonian theory of gravity held up very well for quite some time, until something better came along. If and when we find some better explanation for any particular medical miracles, that will certainly be a worthy progress of knowledge, but until that happy day it would seem that in many cases the best theory available is that the patient's prayers were answered. As I noted in the OP, even in advanced secular countries such as the USA many (most in the USA) doctors report observation of medical miracles in their field of expertise.

Regrowth of an amputated limb is apparently quite rare - or perhaps such folk simply don't want their 'before' and 'after' photos paraded around the world like some kind of freak show and their integrity smeared by thousands of armchair sceptics :-| - but in at least one case four medical workers' sworn testimony confirmed the amputation below the knee of a fellow later known to have two whole and functioning legs.

The question (#2 above) is, if the sworn testimony of four 16th century medical workers confirmed someone's death or birth or the like, would we accept that report as at least plausible? I think we would, obviously with some potential reservations. So does the report of a regrown limb directly contradict anything we know to be true? It's unusual for sure, but hardly any more so than a claim of a feather falling like a lead ball, and arguably less than the proposition that the surface you are sitting on consists mostly of empty space! Seems to me that under a consistent epistemic approach we would accept that evidence as being plausible evidence for the regrowth of an amputated limb; not proof obviously, by any stretch of the imagination, but perhaps somewhere in the order of 30-60%.

The widespread reports by 21st century experts regarding miraculous healings in their own practice is obviously much more compelling evidence.




benchwarmer wrote: None should be accepted unless you have an empirical basis for doing so. Even the 'mundane' claims were at one time extraordinary for everyone. Have you ever seen a toddlers eyes light up when you flick on the light switch to a really cool, lighted mobile? Is it a miracle? Or does this toddler eventually learn how the world works and develops an empirical base for accepting claims based on past experience?

In short, no 'miracles' should simply be accepted without some solid evidence. Some claim a god did it. Others claim aliens did it. Others claim Bob the illusionist pulled one over on everyone. Which one to believe?
I agree with all of this: But I think that many critics' idea of what constitutes "solid evidence" on a case-by-case basis is skewed by naturalist biases rather than applying a consistent standard across the board. Hence the question of the thread, are miracle claims actually any more extraordinary than many of the other things we accept quite readily?

We can imagine a world - and going by all information I'm familiar with, may in fact live in such a world - where a god intervenes in some remarkable way (not necessarily contrary to the 'laws of physics,' as if that matters) several times a day, somewhere in the world. Most people would never personally witness such miracles, or even be close friends/family with someone who had, and they'd obviously not be subject to repetition or experimentation. But assuming a vaguely benevolent or at least well-intentioned deity, we'd expect healings to feature quite prominently. Doctors are comparatively intelligent, educated and analytical subset of the population, so in the scenario where miracles don't occur we would surely expect them to have lower levels of belief in them, but in the scenario where they do occur we'd expect them to notice such miraculous healings at a higher than average rate. The latter is exactly what seems to be the case, with American doctors believing in miracles at about the same rate as the general US population (~70-80%) but reporting witness of miracles at much higher rates (~20-30% even among Christians vs. >50% among doctors) :confused2:

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Re: Are miracles an 'extraordinary' claim?

Post #17

Post by Mithrae »

marco wrote:
Mithrae wrote: 1 > Miracles do not (or at least don't need to) violate the currently-observed patterns of physics:
Then they are not miracles.
Yes they are. (What a fun style of discussion ;) )
Mithrae wrote: 2 > Miracles have been reported in many if not all cultures, in all periods of history down to the present:
Ignorance observes no geographical or temporal restrictions.
Mithrae wrote: 3 > There appear to be hundreds of thousands of expert reports of observed miracles over the past few decades, even in the USA alone:
"Experts" do not report on miracles - they express ignorance of explanation. If a doctor is surprised by a patient's recovery he has no right to deduce God was involved but he can say that something unusual happened, the explanation for which is not in his text books. Doctors, however much we admire them, are not in possession of all medical answers.
These doctors evidently have reported on observed miracles in their field of expertise. If you claim that they are not in an appropriate position to proffer such a theory, who on earth do you imagine is? Priests?
Mithrae wrote: Is there any reason - besides naturalistic biases - for supposing that miracles constitute any more of an 'extraordinary claim' than winning the lottery or some other individually improbable but overall almost commonplace kind of occurrence?
A miracle, as defined involving gods, is completely different from the event of winning a lottery. It is expected that somebody will win; a miracle is not expected.
Plenty of people expect miracles in a general sense, just as we expect a lottery winner only in a general sense. And I'm sure there are some folk who suspect that lotteries are just a scam, just as some folk have devised a philosophy in which miracles are not expected.


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Tcg wrote: It should also be noted that when a patient dies from a normally benign condition, it is not considered a miracle. All we are observing is the two ends of the probability spectrum.

It is only when the odds swing positively for a given patient that some claim a miracle. To be consistent, they would have to claim the same when the odds swing negatively for a given patient.

Oddly, we don't hear, "Praise God for this miracle, she died when all the odds pointed to sure recovery."
Are you kidding? Scarcely a disaster befalls without some preacher declaring that it's an act of God in punishment for the sins of those Democrats.

But in any case, as I believe I've pointed out to you before, there certainly is not a symmetry between sudden and unexpected recovery vs. sudden and unexpected death: Even a healthy functioning body requires dozens of intricate things to keep going right, but can stop functioning due any one of a range of mishaps. It's arguably as or more remarkable even when a healthy body is still healthy next year than if it had dropped dead, never mind an unhealthy body suddenly reversing its expected trajectory!

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Re: Are miracles an 'extraordinary' claim?

Post #18

Post by Difflugia »

Mithrae wrote:We often hear that 'extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,' but are miracles actually an extraordinary claim in that sense?
Absolutely. An "extraordinary claim" in that context is something that is less likely to happen for a given level of evidence than somebody making up the story.
Mithrae wrote:Obviously they are out of the ordinary in the same way that winning the lottery is out of the ordinary, but I doubt that anyone here is in the habit of demanding "extraordinary evidence" for the fact that people do win the lottery!
The two halves of your statement refer to different things. A named person winning the lottery is out of the ordinary. The lottery simply being won isn't. "I won the lottery!" demands extraordinary evidence. "Somebody won the lottery!" doesn't.
Mithrae wrote:But does the rationale for demanding extraordinary evidence have any merit in the first place?
Tell a loan officer that you won the lottery and ask for a loan of two million dollars. Tell her that she can use your winning lottery ticket as collateral. How much evidence do you think she'll need before she approves the loan? Your solemn word? The solemn word of someone else that heard that you won the lottery? The solemn word of someone that saw a photocopy of the ticket?
Mithrae wrote:Is there any reason - besides naturalistic biases - for supposing that miracles constitute any more of an 'extraordinary claim' than winning the lottery or some other individually improbable but overall almost commonplace kind of occurrence?
Since you seem to be keen on denigrating "naturalistic biases," now go to the loan officer and tell her that a leprechaun gave you a pot of gold as they commonly do. You're working through a broker to try to get the best conversion rate, but in the meantime you need some liquid cash. A couple million dollars should do it.

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Re: Are miracles an 'extraordinary' claim?

Post #19

Post by Menotu »

[Replying to post 1 by Mithrae]

Lottery winners must present proof of winning before they're given any money. Miracles demand no such evidence.
Miracles, like most, if not all, things dealing with Christianity are based on faith (myth?) and belief, not facts.
Which is fine if someone wants to live that way.
Just don't get your pantaloons in a bunch when others challenge that POV.

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Re: Are miracles an 'extraordinary' claim?

Post #20

Post by Diagoras »

Mithrae wrote:We are 'guessing' to greater or lesser extents about literally everything we know besides our own existence and defined truths such as mathematics; a less dismissive term would be 'theorizing.' The Newtonian theory of gravity held up very well for quite some time, until something better came along. If and when we find some better explanation for any particular medical miracles, that will certainly be a worthy progress of knowledge, but until that happy day it would seem that in many cases the best theory available is that the patient's prayers were answered.
I can best answer this by partly quoting Sean Carroll (from this article):
...science judges the merits of competing models in terms of their simplicity, clarity, comprehensiveness, and fit to the data. Unsuccessful theories are never disproven, as we can always concoct elaborate schemes to save the phenomena; they just fade away as better theories gain acceptance. Attempting to explain the natural world by appealing to God is, by scientific standards, not a very successful theory.
Guessing or theorising isn’t the whole of science. It’s the very first, small part of it. Repeated experimentation is the real ‘meat and bones’, and this is why ‘miracles’ as an explanation cannot ever be a satisfactory substitute.

We want to understand the world. If something astonishes us, we work to learn the hows and the whys. We stopped being satisfied with ‘God did it’ a long time ago.

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