Christians, What Do You Make Of The Decline Of Your Religion?

[Miles]

.


....................

.................... source

Or doesn't it matter?

.

[TRANSPONDER]

It should be patently obvious the thread here only considers Christians in the United States

Sure, but I doubt many Christians would feel that a shrinking percentage of one country's population would constitute the "decline of your religion."

but even as a worldwide enterprise Christianity is struggling to hold on by its fingernails.

"While Christianity is growing numerically, Christians make up a smaller share of the world's population now than they did in 1900, according to the 2022 State of Global Christianity."

And what's the very next sentence after that? Let's look:

The Gordon-Conwell report does predict, however, that Christianity will grow as a share of the world’s population in the coming years after recently reversing the downward trend and drawing even with population growth. In 2050, they estimate Christians will make up 34.2% of Earth’s population.

Ah, so Christians are growing both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of the world's population. And that doesn't even take into account the potentially large expansion of Christianity in China, where reliable figures on religious conversion are unobtainable.

If that's Christianity "struggling to hold on by its fingernails," what do we make of the fact that atheists and agnostics are not only shrinking as a percentage of the world's population, but are, as we speak, likely declining in absolute numbers?

That seems not to be what it says. While numbers are increasing as population increases, the percentage is going down. Projected expectations are not present figures.

And dividing up the irreligious into atheists and 'agnostics' ,is evading the data that Christianity is decreasing as a demographic percentage and irreligion is increasing and if you could find Data that it wasn't you wouldn't have to fiddle the data.

"Over the coming decades, Christians are expected to experience the largest net losses from switching. Globally, about 40 million people are projected to switch into Christianity, while 106 million are projected to leave, with most joining the ranks of the religiously unaffiliated. (See chart above.)" (Pew research center).

[historia]

Ah, so Christians are growing both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of the world's population. And that doesn't even take into account the potentially large expansion of Christianity in China, where reliable figures on religious conversion are unobtainable.

If that's Christianity "struggling to hold on by its fingernails," what do we make of the fact that atheists and agnostics are not only shrinking as a percentage of the world's population, but are, as we speak, likely declining in absolute numbers?

That seems not to be what it says. While numbers are increasing as population increases, the percentage is going down. Projected expectations are not present figures.

It depends on the time frame we are considering. The percentage of the population that was Christian in 1800 was only 22.7% while today it is 32.2%. The percentage decreased slightly between 1900 and 2000 -- due in large part to forced atheism in communist countries -- and has been flat (not "going down" as you claimed) for the past 20 years. But the percentage is now increasing again.

The greatest factor keeping Christians from being an even larger percentage of the world's population is not irreligion, but the fact that Muslims as a population are growing even faster.

Christianity is decreasing as a demographic percentage and irreligion is increasing

This is simply incorrect. In 1970, those who identified as non-religious constituted 19.2% of the world's population (see forced atheism note above). Today they are roughly 11%. By 2050, they are projected to constitute 8.7% of the world's population.

Just between 2022 and 2025 the absolute number of non-religionists -- not just the percentage but the absolute number of people -- is estimated to decrease, or rather is decreasing.

if you could find Data that it wasn't you wouldn't have to fiddle the data.

I have the data, which is why I can cite the percentages above.

"Over the coming decades, Christians are expected to experience the largest net losses from switching. Globally, about 40 million people are projected to switch into Christianity, while 106 million are projected to leave, with most joining the ranks of the religiously unaffiliated. (See chart above.)" (Pew research center).

This is true, but religious switching only impacts a small percentage of the population. The Pew report you are quoting here notes that over the long term religious switching is "expected to have only a modest effect on the global size of most religious groups."

The report also notes that:

Atheists, agnostics and other people who do not affiliate with any religion – though increasing in countries such as the United States and France – will make up a declining share of the world’s total population.

And so the source you are citing here directly contradicts your claim that "irreligion is increasing."

[Miles]

It should be patently obvious the thread here only considers Christians in the United States

Sure, but I doubt many Christians would feel that a shrinking percentage of one country's population would constitute the "decline of your religion."

And I should care what Christians feel because ____________________________________________ .

but even as a worldwide enterprise Christianity is struggling to hold on by its fingernails.

"While Christianity is growing numerically, Christians make up a smaller share of the world's population now than they did in 1900, according to the 2022 State of Global Christianity."

And what's the very next sentence after that? Let's look:

The Gordon-Conwell report does predict, however, that Christianity will grow as a share of the world’s population in the coming years after recently reversing the downward trend and drawing even with population growth. In 2050, they estimate Christians will make up 34.2% of Earth’s population.

Ah, so Christians are growing both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of the world's population. And that doesn't even take into account the potentially large expansion of Christianity in China, where reliable figures on religious conversion are unobtainable.

No it is NOT growing "as a percentage of the world's population." As I quoted in the very first item I linked to, "Since 1900, the share of Christians has actually fallen. At the turn of the 20th century, 34.5% of the world was Christian. By the time we entered the 21st century, that number had fallen to 32.2%, where it remains."


____________________________________________________

Then we have selected findings from the Pew Research Center article

..................The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050

"Over the next four decades, Christians will remain the largest religious group, but Islam will grow faster than any other major religion. If current trends continue, by 2050 …

The number of Muslims will nearly equal the number of Christians around the world.

The global Buddhist population will be about the same size it was in 2010, while the Hindu and Jewish populations will be larger than they are today.

India will retain a Hindu majority but also will have the largest Muslim population of any country in the world, surpassing Indonesia.

In the United States, Christians will decline from more than three-quarters of the population in 2010 to two-thirds in 2050, and Judaism will no longer be the largest non-Christian religion. Muslims will be more numerous in the U.S. than people who identify as Jewish on the basis of religion."

And

....................
.
So, is this looking good for the future of Christianity, a net loss of 66 million switching Christians? Not in my book, especially when there's a net gain of 61 million switching unaffiliateds

If that's Christianity "struggling to hold on by its fingernails," what do we make of the fact that atheists and agnostics are not only shrinking as a percentage of the world's population, but are, as we speak, likely declining in absolute numbers?

What "fact" is this? You need to present evidence, not opinion, particularly in light of:

"The projections cover eight major groups: Buddhists, Christians, Hindus, Jews, Muslims, adherents of folk religions, adherents of other religions and the unaffiliated (see Appendix C: Defining the Religious Groups). Because censuses and surveys in many countries do not provide information on religious subgroups – such as Sunni and Shia Muslims or Catholic, Protestant and Orthodox Christians – the projections are for each religious group as a whole. Data on subgroups of the unaffiliated are also unavailable in many countries. As a result, separate projections are not possible for atheists or agnostics."
source for Pew Research Center article

So just where did you get YOUR information that "atheists and agnostics are not only shrinking as a percentage of the world's population, but are, as we speak, likely declining in absolute numbers?"


And even if this was true you still have to grapple with the fact that:

"While Christianity’s growth is essentially even with the population as a whole, globally, Hinduism (1.21%), Sikhism (1.52%), and Islam (1.93%) are growing faster."
source

.

[historia]

It should be patently obvious the thread here only considers Christians in the United States

Sure, but I doubt many Christians would feel that a shrinking percentage of one country's population would constitute the "decline of your religion."

And I should care what Christians feel because . . .

I'm using the term "feel" here in the sense of "having a belief or impression," in this case with regard to the supposed "decline" of Christianity, which is what the thread is about, no?

No it is NOT growing "as a percentage of the world's population." As I quoted in the very first item I linked to, "Since 1900, the share of Christians has actually fallen. At the turn of the 20th century, 34.5% of the world was Christian. By the time we entered the 21st century, that number had fallen to 32.2%, where it remains."

I'll repeat what I just said to TRANSPONDER: This depends on the time frame we are considering. The percentage of the population that was Christian in 1800 was only 22.7% while today it is 32.2%. The percentage decreased slightly between 1900 and 2000 -- due in large part to forced atheism in communist countries -- and has been flat for the past 20 years. But the percentage is now increasing again, and is expected to reach 34.2% by 2050, as the sources you cited showed. So it is currently increasing.

So, is this looking good for the future of Christianity, a net loss of 66 million switching Christians? Not in my book, especially when there's a net gain of 61 million switching unaffiliateds

I'm afraid you committed the same mistake here as TRANSPONDER, so let me repeat myself again: Religious switching only impacts a small percentage of the population. The Pew report you are quoting here notes that over the next few decades religious switching is "expected to have only a modest effect on the global size of most religious groups."

Birth and death rates swamp these numbers. Except, that is, in China, where even small percentages of switching can have large impacts on the overall population, given the sheer size of the Chinese population. And thus why Pew notes that the Christian population could potentially grow even more dramatically given conversion to Christianity in China.

So just where did you get YOUR information that "atheists and agnostics are not only shrinking as a percentage of the world's population, but are, as we speak, likely declining in absolute numbers?"

From the source you yourself cited in post #23. Look at the actual report that that article is based on.

And even if this was true you still have to grapple with the fact that:

"While Christianity’s growth is essentially even with the population as a whole, globally, Hinduism (1.21%), Sikhism (1.52%), and Islam (1.93%) are growing faster."
source

Yeah, as I already noted above, the Muslim population in particular is large and growing faster than the Christian population, which is the major reason why Christians are not an even higher percentage of the world's population. Not sure what there is for anyone to "grapple" with here, unless you are somehow emotionally invested in these numbers?

[Miles]

No it is NOT growing "as a percentage of the world's population." As I quoted in the very first item I linked to, "Since 1900, the share of Christians has actually fallen. At the turn of the 20th century, 34.5% of the world was Christian. By the time we entered the 21st century, that number had fallen to 32.2%, where it remains."

I'll repeat what I just said to TRANSPONDER: This depends on the time frame we are considering.

How about sticking to the time frame already set out in the linked article? "Since 1900" to "the time we entered the 21st century," rather than bringing in irrelevant time frames? Yeah, Let's do that and stay on track.

So, is this looking good for the future of Christianity, a net loss of 66 million switching Christians? Not in my book, especially when there's a net gain of 61 million switching unaffiliateds

I'm afraid you committed the same mistake here as TRANSPONDER, so let me repeat myself again: Religious switching only impacts a small percentage of the population.

It may be a small percentage of the whole, but its trend is quite telling. There are 2.65 times more people switching out of Christianity than switching into it. For Buddhists only 1.84 times more people switch out of Buddhism than switch into it, and for Jews the figure (1.96) is only slightly more. For all the rest, more are switching into the religion rather than out of it. In fact 2.7 times more people switch into the Unaffiliated category than out of it. And the TELL of it all is that percentage-wise more people are fleeing Christianity than from any of the other listed religious categories.

The report also notes that:

Atheists, agnostics and other people who do not affiliate with any religion – though increasing in countries such as the United States and France – will make up a declining share of the world’s total population.

Demographers have known this for decades, so this really shouldn't come as a shock to anyone.

Yet you find this noteworthy enough to mention. I did not. Desperate times call for desperate measures I guess.

So just where did you get YOUR information that "atheists and agnostics are not only shrinking as a percentage of the world's population, but are, as we speak, likely declining in absolute numbers?"

From the source you yourself cited in post #23. Look at the actual report that that article is based on.

Yeah nice "status" report.

Ever see a thirty year population forecast that took populations ranging from millions to billions that predicted numbers down to the thousands place? I haven't, unless, that is, numbers were being made up on the fly, which is exactly what I see going on here. This silly *** isn't fit to wrap garbage in. To wit:

Affiliated Christians
2025:2,637,172,000 [yeah, sure ]
2050:3,334,019,000 [yeah, sure ]

Agnostics
2025: 745,662,000 [even, ]
2050: 707,144,000 [even, ]

Atheists
2025: 143,750,000 [or, ]
2050: 142,879,000 [or, ]

No demographer in his right mind would foresee the global population in 2050 to be 9,735,034,000, NOT 9,735,033,000 or 9,735,035,000, but 9,735,034,000. Heck, most wouldn't go further than the hundred thousands place.

And even if this was true you still have to grapple with the fact that:

"While Christianity’s growth is essentially even with the population as a whole, globally, Hinduism (1.21%), Sikhism (1.52%), and Islam (1.93%) are growing faster."
source

Yeah, as I already noted above, the Muslim population in particular is large and growing faster than the Christian population, which is the major reason why Christians are not an even higher percentage of the population. Not sure what there is for anyone to "grapple" with here, unless you are somehow emotionally invested in these numbers?

From all the dire headlines, article headings, studies, depressing graphs, and warnings one reads, Christianity appears to be sliding down hill, and fast. Losing members, potential and paid up, to other faiths and to even the unaffiliated. So I would think there would be some concern about its fate. Perhaps so much as to grapple to get it back on course. No?

.

[TRANSPONDER]

Ah, so Christians are growing both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of the world's population. And that doesn't even take into account the potentially large expansion of Christianity in China, where reliable figures on religious conversion are unobtainable.

If that's Christianity "struggling to hold on by its fingernails," what do we make of the fact that atheists and agnostics are not only shrinking as a percentage of the world's population, but are, as we speak, likely declining in absolute numbers?

That seems not to be what it says. While numbers are increasing as population increases, the percentage is going down. Projected expectations are not present figures.

It depends on the time frame we are considering. The percentage of the population that was Christian in 1800 was only 22.7% while today it is 32.2%. The percentage decreased slightly between 1900 and 2000 -- due in large part to forced atheism in communist countries -- and has been flat (not "going down" as you claimed) for the past 20 years. But the percentage is now increasing again.

The greatest factor keeping Christians from being an even larger percentage of the world's population is not irreligion, but the fact that Muslims as a population are growing even faster.

Christianity is decreasing as a demographic percentage and irreligion is increasing

This is simply incorrect. In 1970, those who identified as non-religious constituted 19.2% of the world's population (see forced atheism note above). Today they are roughly 11%. By 2050, they are projected to constitute 8.7% of the world's population.

Just between 2022 and 2025 the absolute number of non-religionists -- not just the percentage but the absolute number of people -- is estimated to decrease, or rather is decreasing.

if you could find Data that it wasn't you wouldn't have to fiddle the data.

I have the data, which is why I can cite the percentages above.

"Over the coming decades, Christians are expected to experience the largest net losses from switching. Globally, about 40 million people are projected to switch into Christianity, while 106 million are projected to leave, with most joining the ranks of the religiously unaffiliated. (See chart above.)" (Pew research center).

This is true, but religious switching only impacts a small percentage of the population. The Pew report you are quoting here notes that over the long term religious switching is "expected to have only a modest effect on the global size of most religious groups."

The report also notes that:

Atheists, agnostics and other people who do not affiliate with any religion – though increasing in countries such as the United States and France – will make up a declining share of the world’s total population.

And so the source you are citing here directly contradicts your claim that "irreligion is increasing."

Not that I saw. It was pretty plain that religious affiliation was declining everywhere, including the US and other places that do not have forced atheism, but heavily propagandised Christianity. Since the collapse of communism, the former soviet bloc and even China have permitted Christianity, and yet Pew seems to say that religion and Christianity is in decline, and is projected to decline.

Can you post anything to supports what just seems to be your deniallist assertions?

[historia]

No it is NOT growing "as a percentage of the world's population." As I quoted in the very first item I linked to, "Since 1900, the share of Christians has actually fallen. At the turn of the 20th century, 34.5% of the world was Christian. By the time we entered the 21st century, that number had fallen to 32.2%, where it remains."

I'll repeat what I just said to TRANSPONDER: This depends on the time frame we are considering.

How about sticking to the time frame already set out in the linked article? "Since 1900" to "the time we entered the 21st century,"

Recall the proximate issue we are debating here, though: You are challenging my claim about current demographic trends among Christians. Citing stats from the previous century doesn't directly address my claim.

The stats that you yourself cited by way of the earlier article show that, through the first two decades of the 21st century, the percentage of the world's population that is Christian remained flat, and from 2020 to 2050 is projected to increase. So we are currently in a time period where Christians are increasing as a percentage of the world's population. As I said.

So, is this looking good for the future of Christianity, a net loss of 66 million switching Christians? Not in my book, especially when there's a net gain of 61 million switching unaffiliateds

I'm afraid you committed the same mistake here as TRANSPONDER, so let me repeat myself again: Religious switching only impacts a small percentage of the population.

It may be a small percentage of the whole, but its trend is quite telling.

But, since these numbers are so small, they don't tell us whether the Christian population is growing or shrinking as a percentage of the world's total population, which is what we're discussing.

The Pew report also notes that the projected switching stats could be wildly different if conversion to Christianity in China is taken into account. Those numbers are currently unreliable, due to suppression of religion in China, but could have a massive impact on these stats.

The report also notes that:

Atheists, agnostics and other people who do not affiliate with any religion – though increasing in countries such as the United States and France – will make up a declining share of the world’s total population.

Demographers have known this for decades, so this really shouldn't come as a shock to anyone.

Yet you find this noteworthy enough to mention.

I mention it only because TRANSPONDER brought it up, and like many atheists I've encountered when discussing this topic on this forum, is laboring under the misapprehension that irreligion is growing worldwide. You'll notice I actually removed this comment from my response to you before you responded, since I decided it wasn't germane to our particular discussion.

So just where did you get YOUR information that "atheists and agnostics are not only shrinking as a percentage of the world's population, but are, as we speak, likely declining in absolute numbers?"

From the source you yourself cited in post #23. Look at the actual report that that article is based on.

Yeah nice "status" report.

Ever see a thirty year population forecast that took populations ranging from millions to billions that predicted numbers down to the thousands place?

All demographic projections are based on models and formulas, and so naturally result in numbers down even to the tens and ones. If your only rebuttal to these numbers is that the report writers didn't round them to your liking, that's a rather facile objection.

Had the report writers rounded the numbers to, say, the ten thousands place, like the projected switching numbers from Pew, that doesn't in any way shape or form change the fact that they show atheists and agnostics worldwide declining in numbers. As I said.

And even if this was true you still have to grapple with the fact that:

"While Christianity’s growth is essentially even with the population as a whole, globally, Hinduism (1.21%), Sikhism (1.52%), and Islam (1.93%) are growing faster."
source

Yeah, as I already noted above, the Muslim population in particular is large and growing faster than the Christian population, which is the major reason why Christians are not an even higher percentage of the population. Not sure what there is for anyone to "grapple" with here, unless you are somehow emotionally invested in these numbers?

From all the dire headlines, article headings, studies, depressing graphs, and warnings one reads, Christianity appears to be sliding down hill, and fast. Losing members, potential and paid up, to other faiths and to even the unaffiliated. So I would think there would be some concern about its fate. Perhaps so much as to grapple to get it back on course. No?

The demographic data that you and TRANSPONDER cited from Pew and Gordon-Conwell don't show Christianity declining worldwide. So to say, as you have here, that it is somehow "sliding down hill, and fast" when your own sources say otherwise is kinda silly.

The fact that some other religions are also growing -- the point you asked me to "grapple" with -- wouldn't seem to indicate Christianity is "off course."

[historia]

Atheists, agnostics and other people who do not affiliate with any religion – though increasing in countries such as the United States and France – will make up a declining share of the world’s total population.

And so the source you are citing here directly contradicts your claim that "irreligion is increasing."

Not that I saw.

Look again. I just gave you a direct quote from the Pew report that says (bolded for emphasis) that atheists, agnostics, and other people who do not affiliate with any religion are declining as a share of the world's total population. So your claim that "irreligion is increasing" is simply false. Did you not read the report?

For the sources and data that show Christianity is increasing, see my exchange with Miles.

[Miles]

No it is NOT growing "as a percentage of the world's population." As I quoted in the very first item I linked to, "Since 1900, the share of Christians has actually fallen. At the turn of the 20th century, 34.5% of the world was Christian. By the time we entered the 21st century, that number had fallen to 32.2%, where it remains."

I'll repeat what I just said to TRANSPONDER: This depends on the time frame we are considering.

How about sticking to the time frame already set out in the linked article? "Since 1900" to "the time we entered the 21st century,"

Recall the proximate issue we are debating here, though: You are challenging my claim about current demographic trends among Christians. Citing stats from the previous century doesn't directly address my claim.

The stats that you yourself cited by way of the earlier article show that, through the first two decades of the 21st century, the percentage of the world's population that is Christian remained flat, and from 2020 to 2050 is projected to increase. So we are currently in a time period where Christians are increasing as a percentage of the world's population. As I said.

So, is this looking good for the future of Christianity, a net loss of 66 million switching Christians? Not in my book, especially when there's a net gain of 61 million switching unaffiliateds

I'm afraid you committed the same mistake here as TRANSPONDER, so let me repeat myself again: Religious switching only impacts a small percentage of the population.

It may be a small percentage of the whole, but its trend is quite telling.

But, since these numbers are so small, they don't tell us whether the Christian population is growing or shrinking as a percentage of the world's total population, which is what we're discussing.

The Pew report also notes that the projected switching stats could be wildly different if conversion to Christianity in China is taken into account. Those numbers are currently unreliable, due to suppression of religion in China, but could have a massive impact on these stats.

The report also notes that:

Atheists, agnostics and other people who do not affiliate with any religion – though increasing in countries such as the United States and France – will make up a declining share of the world’s total population.

Demographers have known this for decades, so this really shouldn't come as a shock to anyone.

Yet you find this noteworthy enough to mention.

I mention it only because TRANSPONDER brought it up, and like many atheists I've encountered when discussing this topic on this forum, is laboring under the misapprehension that irreligion is growing worldwide. You'll notice I actually removed this comment from my response to you before you responded, since I decided it wasn't germane to our particular discussion.

So just where did you get YOUR information that "atheists and agnostics are not only shrinking as a percentage of the world's population, but are, as we speak, likely declining in absolute numbers?"

From the source you yourself cited in post #23. Look at the actual report that that article is based on.

Yeah nice "status" report.

Ever see a thirty year population forecast that took populations ranging from millions to billions that predicted numbers down to the thousands place?

All demographic projections are based on models and formulas, and so naturally result in numbers down even to the tens and ones. If your only rebuttal to these numbers is that the report writers didn't round them to your liking, that's a rather facile objection.

Had the report writers rounded the numbers to, say, the ten thousands place, like the projected switching numbers from Pew, that doesn't in any way shape or form change the fact that they show atheists and agnostics worldwide declining in numbers. As I said.

And even if this was true you still have to grapple with the fact that:

"While Christianity’s growth is essentially even with the population as a whole, globally, Hinduism (1.21%), Sikhism (1.52%), and Islam (1.93%) are growing faster."
source

Yeah, as I already noted above, the Muslim population in particular is large and growing faster than the Christian population, which is the major reason why Christians are not an even higher percentage of the population. Not sure what there is for anyone to "grapple" with here, unless you are somehow emotionally invested in these numbers?

From all the dire headlines, article headings, studies, depressing graphs, and warnings one reads, Christianity appears to be sliding down hill, and fast. Losing members, potential and paid up, to other faiths and to even the unaffiliated. So I would think there would be some concern about its fate. Perhaps so much as to grapple to get it back on course. No?

The demographic data that you and TRANSPONDER cited from Pew and Gordon-Conwell don't show Christianity declining worldwide. So to say, as you have here, that it is somehow "sliding down hill, and fast" when your own sources say otherwise is kinda silly.

The fact that some other religions are also growing -- the point you asked me to "grapple" with -- wouldn't seem to indicate Christianity is "off course."

Sorry, but your objections here are far too lame to bother addressing.


Have a nice day

.

[brunumb]

[Replying to historia in post #38]

There are lots of surveys and data giving mixed messages about religion in the world. What clearly emerges is that religiosity in general and Christianity in particular are in decline in Western and developed countries.

Below are some of the possible reasons for this.
10 Reasons Why Christianity Is Declining and Atheism Is Growing
Details can be found at
https://soapboxie.com/social-issues/Why ... is-Growing

Science Has Become Popular and Mainstream
Famous Non-Believers Have Come Out of the Closet
TV, Film, and the Media
Non-Belief Is in Style and Reaching a Critical Mass
America’s Changing Political Climate and Religion’s Bad Image
The Internet: Irreligion Goes Viral
We’re Now Forced to Talk About and Question Religion
People Are Getting Smarter
A New Generation Is Taking Control
Everything Combined

It would be interesting to see where Christianity is actually on the rise and the possible reasons for that.