Why is the atheist movement in decline?

[historia]

Consider these recent comments from several prominent atheist activists:

You know lately when I look around on social media, and in the media in general really, I see these proclamations. Proclamations that the atheist movement is on life support. It's dying. It's probably beyond saving.

. . .

As an atheist activist myself, I can understand myself why some activists have just left the party. They just got tired of it. All the politics and the posturing and the trolls and the bad faith operators out there. They have seen first hand that atheists are not immune to scandal, to ugliness, to irrationality, to this unhealthy rage.

If you look at the major atheist groups right now -- like the national groups, the ones that are doing the real activist work, like American Atheists or Secular Coalition -- they are not bringing in the kind of donations they used to. Most of them are starved for cash. They're downsizing left and right, because people aren't just giving like they used to.

And I talked to a lot of the major donors out there and they said, "Well, we're kind of tired of seeing the atheist community just fight amongst itself and not really get anything done. We'd rather not give money if we don't think it's going to go somewhere."

It is a hard time to be an atheist activist . . . We are suffering a level of defeatism that I've never seen before . . . I have heard "it's over" so many times it makes me sick . . . This apathy is infecting us and it's hurting us . . . That has resulted in a splintering and a faction-ing of the movement that I've never seen before . . . We're in a bad situation and it's getting worse.

Atheism has squandered its momentum on a defensive old guard and apologists for neglect of events happening in our world. I’m going to have to suggest that we all abandon it.

Question for debate: Why is the atheist movement in decline?

[marco]

If Pew conducts a survey in the United States asking people who are religiously unaffiliated whether they believe in God, and 33% of those people say they don't believe in God, are you saying that statistic is somehow meaningless because "we don't know the meaning of God"? What does that mean?

If we are making a comment on the "atheist movement" then its decline does not indicate any corresponding increase in God lovers. I imagine that people are suspicious of strong atheism, and see no merit in pronouncing there is no God. But at the same time they might confidently accept there is no Yahweh. So perhaps all that is happening is that people see no need to make assertions one way or another about deities. If they exist, they'll knock on our door - meantime life goes on without them, and without the need to shout we are atheists. What's the problem?

[NervyGuy]

I'm not sure I understand your concern here.

If Pew conducts a survey in the United States asking people who are religiously unaffiliated whether they believe in God, and 33% of those people say they don't believe in God, are you saying that statistic is somehow meaningless because "we don't know the meaning of God"? What does that mean?

I was talking about the world, not the United States. In the US, if you walk up to a guy on the street and start talking about 'God', he's likely to get an image in his head of a white-bearded, omnipotent, etc. Guy who is described in the Judeo-Christian scriptures.

Same with most of Europe.

But in lots of other places, the concept of 'God' is nothing like that. (We might not even be sure what word to use for "God" in our survey question.)

So a worldwide survey of God-belief doesn't seem very useful to me. Not something I'd take too seriously.

May I ask why you find it interesting?

[historia]

73% either don't believe or are ambivalent about your version of "God". (I too can lump numbers together to make my point.)

But surely this is mischaracterizing the data. The respondents in the survey are grouped into categories based on their level of certainty that God exists. For some reason, you have rephrased this in terms of feelings, so that even those who say they are "fairly certain" God exists are now described as "ambivalent."

And the percentage has increased.

Yeah, according to the survey, the percentage of religiously unaffiliated people in the United States who don't believe in God has increased.

Why is the religious movement in decline ...?

There is no such thing as "the religious movement," so I'm not sure you are trying to ask here.

[historia]

So a worldwide survey of God-belief doesn't seem very useful to me. Not something I'd take too seriously.

May I ask why you find it interesting?

What survey are you referring to?

[NervyGuy]

[quote="historia"]

What survey are you referring to?

Whatever survey or source you were referencing when you said:

Several people in this thread have made a separate claim about percentages of the world's population that are atheist or religiously unaffiliated. I'm responding to that tangential topic by pointing out that the worldwide demographic data does not support their claims.

[NervyGuy]

What survey are you referring to?

Whatever survey or source you were referring to in your Msg #34 when you said:

Several people in this thread have made a separate claim about percentages of the world's population that are atheist or religiously unaffiliated. I'm responding to that tangential topic by pointing out that the worldwide demographic data does not support their claims.

(And haven't you been arguing that you are not talking about just the situation in the US?)

[historia]

What survey are you referring to?

Whatever survey or source you were referring to in your Msg #34 when you said:

Several people in this thread have made a separate claim about percentages of the world's population that are atheist or religiously unaffiliated. I'm responding to that tangential topic by pointing out that the worldwide demographic data does not support their claims.

The sources for that claim are census and survey data tracking religious self-identification, including whether people identify as atheist, agnostic, or with no religious tradition in particular.

One of the primary sources of this data is the World Religion Database, published by Brill. It includes data from 1900 to the present, with projections out to 2050. It is the foremost authority on this type of religious demographic data. However, it also requires a subscription.

Luckily for us, however, several publicly available reports use this database as one of their sources, and even supplement it with additional data.

See especially the Center For the Study of Global Christianity's report Christianity in its Global Context, which was published in 2013, and includes comparative data between 1970 and today, with projections out to 2020.

The Pew Forum's Global Religious Landscape report, which was published in 2012, includes numbers from 2010. And its Future of World Religions report, which was published in 2015, includes projections out to 2050.

And haven't you been arguing that you are not talking about just the situation in the US?

It depends on which thread of the conversation you are referring to. One thread concerns global demographic trends, while one of the more recent threads centers on the percentage of religiously unaffiliated Americans who believe in God.

The sources and geographic scope of those two threads are different. It appears that you may have accidentally conflated them.

[polonius]

These remarks from National Geographic seem relevant to the present discussion.

[polonius]

It isn't.

These remarks from National Geographic seem relevant to the present discussion.

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/201 ... -religion/

“There are a few theories about why people become atheists in large numbers. Some demographers attribute it to financial security, which would explain why European countries with a stronger social safety net are more secular than the United States, where poverty is more common and a medical emergency can bankrupt even the insured.

“Atheism is also tied to education, measured by academic achievement (atheists in many places tend to have college degrees) or general knowledge of the panoply of beliefs around the world (hence theories that Internet access spurs atheism).�

“The religiously unaffiliated, called "nones," are growing significantly. They’re the second largest religious group in North America and most of Europe. In the United States, nones make up almost a quarter of the population. In the past decade, U.S. nones have overtaken Catholics, mainline protestants, and all followers of non-Christian faiths.�

[NervyGuy]

It depends on which thread of the conversation you are referring to. One thread concerns global demographic trends, while one of the more recent threads centers on the percentage of religiously unaffiliated Americans who believe in God.

I was mostly interested in how anyone can trust worldwide surveys or data about religious belief.

One culture might have four words for 'God'. How would we translate our God-question into their language?

Another culture might think of God as purely spirit, unable to come into the physical world and do anything (not even deliver "Holy Scripture" to us). Would American Christians think of those people as A) believing in God or B) disbelieving in God.

Anyway, I grow suspicious when people start building databases about something so complex and personal as religious belief.