The Dunning-Kruger Effect

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bluegreenearth
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The Dunning-Kruger Effect

Post #1

Post by bluegreenearth »

From Psychology Today: (https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/basi ... ger-effect)
Dunning-Kruger Effect
The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people wrongly overestimate their knowledge or ability in a specific area. This tends to occur because a lack of self-awareness prevents them from accurately assessing their own skills.

Understanding the Dunning-Kruger Effect
The concept of the Dunning-Kruger effect is based on a 1999 paper by Cornell University psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger. The pair tested participants on their logic, grammar, and sense of humor, and found that those who performed in the bottom quartile rated their skills far above average. For example, those in the 12th percentile self-rated their expertise to be, on average, in the 62nd percentile.

The researchers attributed the trend to a problem of metacognition—the ability to analyze one’s own thoughts or performance. “Those with limited knowledge in a domain suffer a dual burden: Not only do they reach mistaken conclusions and make regrettable errors, but their incompetence robs them of the ability to realize it,” they wrote.

What causes the Dunning-Kruger effect?
Confidence is so highly prized that many people would rather pretend to be smart or skilled than risk looking inadequate and losing face. Even smart people can be affected by the Dunning-Kruger effect because having intelligence isn’t the same thing as learning and developing a specific skill. Many individuals mistakenly believe that their experience and skills in one particular area are transferable to another.

Why do people fail to recognize their own incompetence?
Many people would describe themselves as above average in intelligence, humor, and a variety of skills. They can’t accurately judge their own competence, because they lack metacognition, or the ability to step back and examine oneself objectively. In fact, those who are the least skilled are also the most likely to overestimate their abilities.
Here is the link to the 1999 paper by David Dunning and Justin Kruger: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/U ... ebabc?p2df

Apparently, all of us are susceptible to the Dunning-Kruger Effect but few of us are consciously aware when we are exhibiting the diagnostic symptoms.

So, I'm compelled to consider if the Dunning-Kruger Effect best explains the arrogant confidence various untrained and unqualified pseudo-intellectuals have in their poorly researched and tragically misinformed objections to demonstrably reliable scientific theories which are rigorously and routinely tested by actual experts who are trained and qualified in their relevant fields?

If not the Dunning-Kruger Effect, what are other candidate explanations for this deleterious social phenomenon?

Is there a compassionate way to facilitate intellectual humility and help each other recognize when our confidence in a particular perspective is disproportionately high compared to our level of competence?

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Re: The Dunning-Kruger Effect

Post #21

Post by bluegreenearth »

William wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 12:21 pm [Replying to TRANSPONDER in post #17]
This is relevant to the point William (I think the layout confuses me at times) about treating Christians as unintelligent. There is something I used to say on my old Board :P ...Deconverts do not suddenly become more intelligent, they simply become less theist. We all know, don't we (and I think the theists know this deep don inside because you see from their evasions, ducking and diving like a politician asked an awkward question that they know where they are going wrong but do not want to know because they are driven by Faith and not by getting at the truth so far as the evidence goes.
My position is Agnostic Theist. So you are claiming that I duck and weave and evade etc and don't deal with "awkward questions" and are "driven by faith" rather than "getting at the truth".

I do not think your assessment of my position is intellectually honest or intellectually humble.
Of course, TRANSPONDER is welcome to confirm or deny your interpretation of his remarks, but I don't observe where his comments are being directed at you specifically. Though he is responding to your post, the comments you've referenced appear to be about other types of theists.

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Re: The Dunning-Kruger Effect

Post #22

Post by William »

bluegreenearth wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 1:18 pm
William wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 12:21 pm [Replying to TRANSPONDER in post #17]
This is relevant to the point William (I think the layout confuses me at times) about treating Christians as unintelligent. There is something I used to say on my old Board :P ...Deconverts do not suddenly become more intelligent, they simply become less theist. We all know, don't we (and I think the theists know this deep don inside because you see from their evasions, ducking and diving like a politician asked an awkward question that they know where they are going wrong but do not want to know because they are driven by Faith and not by getting at the truth so far as the evidence goes.
My position is Agnostic Theist. So you are claiming that I duck and weave and evade etc and don't deal with "awkward questions" and are "driven by faith" rather than "getting at the truth".

I do not think your assessment of my position is intellectually honest or intellectually humble.
Of course, TRANSPONDER is welcome to confirm or deny your interpretation of his remarks, but I don't observe where his comments are being directed at you specifically. Though he is responding to your post, the comments you've referenced appear to be about other types of theists.
If that is the case, then I am sure TRANSPONDER will adjust the way in which TRANSPONDER uses the word in future post, as that is the reason I am calling it - an attempt on my part to correct a mis-representation. Not all are painted with the same brush and it is not the first time I have attempted to explain this to TRANSPONDER.

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Re: The Dunning-Kruger Effect

Post #23

Post by JoeyKnothead »

William wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 1:42 pm If that is the case, then I am sure TRANSPONDER will adjust the way in which TRANSPONDER uses the word in future post, as that is the reason I am calling it - an attempt on my part to correct a mis-representation. Not all are painted with the same brush and it is not the first time I have attempted to explain this to TRANSPONDER.
After fussing through the thread, I gotta go with William here. It'd be nice to see TRANSPONDER use a sash brush instead of the all purpose brush. Paint's getting applied where it ain't to spec.
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Re: The Dunning-Kruger Effect

Post #24

Post by theophile »

bluegreenearth wrote: Tue Nov 16, 2021 5:14 pm From Psychology Today: (https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/basi ... ger-effect)
Dunning-Kruger Effect
The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people wrongly overestimate their knowledge or ability in a specific area. This tends to occur because a lack of self-awareness prevents them from accurately assessing their own skills.

Understanding the Dunning-Kruger Effect
The concept of the Dunning-Kruger effect is based on a 1999 paper by Cornell University psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger. The pair tested participants on their logic, grammar, and sense of humor, and found that those who performed in the bottom quartile rated their skills far above average. For example, those in the 12th percentile self-rated their expertise to be, on average, in the 62nd percentile.

The researchers attributed the trend to a problem of metacognition—the ability to analyze one’s own thoughts or performance. “Those with limited knowledge in a domain suffer a dual burden: Not only do they reach mistaken conclusions and make regrettable errors, but their incompetence robs them of the ability to realize it,” they wrote.

What causes the Dunning-Kruger effect?
Confidence is so highly prized that many people would rather pretend to be smart or skilled than risk looking inadequate and losing face. Even smart people can be affected by the Dunning-Kruger effect because having intelligence isn’t the same thing as learning and developing a specific skill. Many individuals mistakenly believe that their experience and skills in one particular area are transferable to another.

Why do people fail to recognize their own incompetence?
Many people would describe themselves as above average in intelligence, humor, and a variety of skills. They can’t accurately judge their own competence, because they lack metacognition, or the ability to step back and examine oneself objectively. In fact, those who are the least skilled are also the most likely to overestimate their abilities.
Here is the link to the 1999 paper by David Dunning and Justin Kruger: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/U ... ebabc?p2df

Apparently, all of us are susceptible to the Dunning-Kruger Effect but few of us are consciously aware when we are exhibiting the diagnostic symptoms.

So, I'm compelled to consider if the Dunning-Kruger Effect best explains the arrogant confidence various untrained and unqualified pseudo-intellectuals have in their poorly researched and tragically misinformed objections to demonstrably reliable scientific theories which are rigorously and routinely tested by actual experts who are trained and qualified in their relevant fields?

If not the Dunning-Kruger Effect, what are other candidate explanations for this deleterious social phenomenon?

Is there a compassionate way to facilitate intellectual humility and help each other recognize when our confidence in a particular perspective is disproportionately high compared to our level of competence?
What's interesting is that in most (if not all) of the responses so far there has been no real acknowledgement from anyone that they are subject to this effect.

So I guess I'll be the first to admit that I'm partial to my own views and that they always feel right to me at the time. :)

But I've also been around long enough to see my views change and to have felt the same sense of self-righteousness for completely opposite opinions. And to know that nothing makes me happier than a new realization, even if (or especially if) it blows apart everything I thought before.

That's the reason I enter into most discussions. The hope of sharing or receiving such revelations. Even though such discussions tend to degenerate into absolute positions and both sides feeling that baseless claims or dismissals are being made.

So I do hope we can all do better at this. Irrespective of our individual intelligence levels there is a lot of potential for valuable input on this board.

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Re: The Dunning-Kruger Effect

Post #25

Post by William »

[Replying to theophile in post #24]
What's interesting is that in most (if not all) of the responses so far there has been no real acknowledgement from anyone that they are subject to this effect.

So I guess I'll be the first to admit that I'm partial to my own views and that they always feel right to me at the time. :)

But I've also been around long enough to see my views change and to have felt the same sense of self-righteousness for completely opposite opinions. And to know that nothing makes me happier than a new realization, even if (or especially if) it blows apart everything I thought before.
I think for me at least, the DKE is like a signpost to a destination. Being right about something does not mean that one has to ride a wave of "self-righteousness" in the knowing. The very idea of being self-righteous betrays a lack of humility/honesty.

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Re: The Dunning-Kruger Effect

Post #26

Post by theophile »

William wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 2:35 pm [Replying to theophile in post #24]
What's interesting is that in most (if not all) of the responses so far there has been no real acknowledgement from anyone that they are subject to this effect.

So I guess I'll be the first to admit that I'm partial to my own views and that they always feel right to me at the time. :)

But I've also been around long enough to see my views change and to have felt the same sense of self-righteousness for completely opposite opinions. And to know that nothing makes me happier than a new realization, even if (or especially if) it blows apart everything I thought before.
I think for me at least, the DKE is like a signpost to a destination. Being right about something does not mean that one has to ride a wave of "self-righteousness" in the knowing. The very idea of being self-righteous betrays a lack of humility/honesty.
Sure. But look, we all feel it. We all have this sensation of being right (irrespective of whether we are right or not). Feeling that does not mean we aren't humble or honest. It just means we feel we are right (which is perfectly natural).

My further point was that my broader experience has shown me that I can't trust that feeling. I think that's where the humility / honesty comes in. It's knowing that despite how right I may feel, history tells a different story. So I've got to check myself. And frankly, that being open has its rewards.
Last edited by theophile on Fri Nov 19, 2021 2:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Dunning-Kruger Effect

Post #27

Post by William »

[Replying to theophile in post #26]
My further point was that my broader experience has shown me that I can't trust that feeling.

I think that's where the humility / honesty comes in.
Sure. Throw that feeling away. It cannot be trusted, so don't even be tempted by it.

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Re: The Dunning-Kruger Effect

Post #28

Post by theophile »

William wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 2:51 pm [Replying to theophile in post #26]
My further point was that my broader experience has shown me that I can't trust that feeling.

I think that's where the humility / honesty comes in.
Sure. Throw that feeling away. It cannot be trusted, so don't even be tempted by it.
I don't know if I'd go that far. It's part of what drives good discourse. The world of ideas would be a lot duller without it.

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Re: The Dunning-Kruger Effect

Post #29

Post by William »

[Replying to theophile in post #28]
I think that's where the humility / honesty comes in.
Sure. Throw that feeling away. It cannot be trusted, so don't even be tempted by it.
I don't know if I'd go that far. It's part of what drives good discourse. The world of ideas would be a lot duller without it.
Is there a compassionate way to facilitate intellectual humility which might still drive a good discourse and not be dull?

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Re: The Dunning-Kruger Effect

Post #30

Post by TRANSPONDER »

I'm sure there is. We all have a bias towards the views that we hold at the time. The trick is to put that aside and be willing to evaluate the other argument as objectively as possible, even if your don't like it. The wrong way (because the person doing it only does themselves a disservice - and the case they are trying to make) is to get all dismissive and denialist about it.

I don't know about the extent to which Dunning -Kruger comes into it but I do see a lot of dismissive denial, or any excuse will do. Just recall the argument that there were two Jericho's to excuse Jesus healing the blind man both when entering and leaving Jerusalem, or just recently that Jesus was lamenting over another city altogether when he was just outside the walls of Jerusalem. Given that such a person can have no mental image of the situation, it is surely 'any excuse' operating here.

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