The Total Lunar Tetrads Tell Us When Jesus Returns

[lvdyou]

Jesus was cursing the fig tree for having no leaves representing Israel for having no life after all He has done for them. In Matt. 24.33 Jesus says His return is "very near" after Israel becomes a nation again, branches beginning to bud (v.32), so within a lifetime of 75 years (Ps. 90.10) from 1948. No later than 2023! The 7-year Tribulation can't start any later than 2016. Jesus said the disciples could not know when He returns prior to Israel a nation again.

We are also told to look for signs in the cosmos for when the Tribulation starts. In the 6th seal, Rev. 6.12 (cf. Joel 2.31, Acts 2.20) says 3 things must occur before the Tribulation starts since the 7th seal opens up the very loud 7 trumpets of the Tribulation. The first rapture according to readiness (Rev. 3.10, Luke 21.36) is "before the throne" (7.9) in 3rd heaven before the 1st trumpet (8.7) commences the Tribulation. The resurrection is at the start of the last trumpet (11.15) which is the harvest (14.14-16) to meet the Lord in the air (1 Thess. 4.14-18).

"When he opened the sixth seal, I looked, and behold, there was a great earthquake; and the sun became black as sackcloth, the full moon became like blood"(Rev. 6.12).

First, a great earthquake! The second greatest number of deaths occurred in Haiti 2010 and the most per capita, 1 in 27 people. The 4th or 5th greatest in magnitude occurred in Japan 2011 and was the greatest financial loss. Never before in history have two earthquakes of such massive proportions occurred back to back, year over year.

Second, a black sackcloth solar eclipse! There are 4 kinds of solar eclipses. The rarest is the Hybrid occurring about 5% of the time. There are 3 kinds of Hybrids, the rarest being the H3 about 5% of the time which finishes off as a total eclipse to produce that black sackcloth effect. The 4th long H3 since Christ is Nov. 3, 2013. It won't happen again till 2172.

Third, a red blood moon lunar eclipse! The rarest kind of lunar eclipse is the lunar tetrad. A tetrad is when there are 4 red blood moon total eclipses in a row. And it is even rarer when it lands on passover, tabernacles, and again on passover and tabernacles. Passover is the first of Israel's seven feasts representing atonement. And Tabernacles is the last feast pointing to the future millennial kingdom. The 6th Total Lunar Tetrad since Christ was 1949/50. Israel became a nation May 14, 1948 and signed the Armistice treaties in 1949. The 7th feast Tetrad was 1967/68. Israel took over Jerusalem June 7, 1967. This is the first time in history two feast Tetrads were this close 18 years apart. The 8th Tetrad is 2014/15 and won't happen again for nearly 600 years, 2582/83. There is no unique solar eclipse next to that Tetrad way off into the future. As a double fulfillment of Daniel's prophecy, it would take seven sets of seven years from the declaration to rebuild the Temple for it to be completed. This is 17,640 days or 360 days/yr x 7 sets of 7 years (Dan. 9.25). From June 7, 1967 to Sept. 23, 2015 is also 17,460 days. This day happens to be the Day of Atonement which is 10 days after the first rapture Feast of Trumpets.

Considering these undeniable facts, the Tribulation can't start before 2015 either. Next, we need a 2,520 day period for the Tribulation since all of Daniel's sixty-nine sevens are 2,520 days each. 2,520 is the smallest number divisible by all numbers 2 to 10 as Daniel's basic working prophetic unit. This is triply confirmed since Jesus was "cut off" (Dan. 9.26) after 69 sets of seven years or 173,880 days from the declaration to rebuild the temple Nisan 1, 444 BC (Neh. 2.1). This takes us to Nisan 10, Monday, Mar. 28, 33 AD (Gregorian), the day Jesus entered Jerusalem-the first day of the four day inspection of the lamb. The 4 day inspection was Mar. 28, 29, 30, 31. Jesus was captured on Thursday, Mar. 31 then He died on the cross Nisan 14, Passover, Friday, April 1, 33 AD what Satan calls April Fool's Day. The first 4 feasts refer to atonement, Jesus set apart for three days, His resurrection, and giving the Holy Spirit. Since the last 3 feasts pertain to Jesus' second coming (rapture, salvation, millennium) and the first of those feasts deals with the first rapture (Rev. 7.9), the 2,520 day period must count down from Feast of Trumpets. There is no holiday on the 2,520th day in 2023 from Feast of Trumpets in 2016.

The 2,520th day from Feast of Trumpets Sept. 14, 2015 takes us to Sunday Aug. 7, 2022. Yet I could find no holiday on that day either until I realized when Tisha B'Av falls on a Saturday it is held the day after instead. So is the case in 2022. Tisha B'Av was when the 1st and 2nd Temples were destroyed. This is of great significance because Jesus returns to reign in the 3rd Temple (2 Thess. 2.4, Rev. 11.2) for 1000 years (20.2-7) over the nations with His overcomers (2.26, 20.4-6) and a rod of iron (12.5). He returns with 10,000 of His overcomers (Jude 14,15)-the 5 wise virgins (Matt. 25.1-13). The 5 unwise virgins though saved and have eternal life which can never be lost (John 10.28) would not be included in the first rapture nor the return to reign during the 1000 years. They would be resurrected at last trumpet. This is accountability for Christians to "overcometh" mentioned 7 times in Rev. 2 & 3. Christians all overcome but not at the same time. Many Christians prefer to be tied down to the world like a balloon unwilling to be released so they shall lose this reward by being cast into outer darkness, outside the light of reward of reigning with Christ during the millennium.

Outer darkness is like being in the forest and seeing a beautifully lit cabin but not allowed to enter it until the occupants come out to take them to the mansion. Or it is like painting a house, but if you are sloppy with the paint getting it all over yourself, you will need to remove it with some solvent like gasoline which stings before you can enter the shower.

The polling system is messed up. It excluded my 5th option of "Possibly < 50%"

[ThatGirlAgain]

It's quite true Jesus said He will return very soon after Israel is a nation again so within a lifetime at the uttermost. Ps. 90.10 says a lifetime is 75 years so before 2023 from 1948. And since the 3 events spoken of in Rev. 6.12 right before the Tribulation are the 3 events of 2010-15, the Tribulation can't start before 2015. But since there is no 2,520 day period in 2016-23, but there is for 2015-22 we know the Tribulation with 100% certainty is Feast of Trumpets Sept. 14, 2015 to Tisha B'Av Aug. 7, 2022. Very simple so even you can understand.

Let's see you quote a phase that says 'Jesus said he will return soon after Israel is a nation again'. I bet that is ripped out of context and retrofitted.

I have to say that despite interesting information and persistence, lvdyou probably isn't the best apologist/evangelist out there. It's frankly depressing that he keeps using Matthew as the basis for this claim.

Matthew turns Jesus cursing the fig tree into nothing more than a lesson on faith - he's entered Jerusalem and cleared the temple, he sees the fig tree, curses it, the tree withers, and he explains. The original in Mark is more enigmatic - for starters it specifically says that it was not the season for figs. It's a whole day before the disciples see the withered tree, during which Jesus clears the temple. Mark still has the lesson on faith, but maybe there's some further meaning behind the curséd fruitless tree. I think I vaguely recall ThatGirlAgain commenting on this with regard to Mark writing after 70CE - I'll PM her to see if she's got a yea or nay or something else to add here.

If it's a viable interpretation that the curséd fig tree is a metaphor for Israel's devastation in 70CE, then in all honesty I'd have to say it's a weak but by no means absurd interpretation that the sprouting of the fig tree (Mark 13:28-29) might refer to Israel's reinstatement.

Here is an interpretation presented by White.

Mark is writing shortly after the destruction of the Temple in 70 CE, the climax of the failed First Revolt. This attempt to expel the Romans was fueled by a religious/nationalistic fervor inspired by a militaristic vision of the expected messiah. The disastrous consequences of this revolt – possibly a million dead, Judaea and Galilee ravaged, Jerusalem and even the Temple itself utterly destroyed – turned messianic fervor into despair.

Mark interleaves the fig tree story with visits to the Temple by Jesus and the Apostles, thematically associating the two. The fig tree cannot give fruit because it is not the time for it. The revolt bore no fruit because the time had not come. The fig tree withers, the Temple is destroyed. The militaristic messianic movement was the wrong way. Its expectations could not be fulfilled.

But Jesus never represented revolutionary messianism. Those who thought that was the messianic way were mistaken. In Mark’s Gospel, the message of Jesus and the meaning of his works were constantly misunderstood. Jesus was the secret Messiah. Mark’s audience should not associate the recent disaster with Jesus. Those who thought so were wrong. Jesus as Messiah was still a valid idea.

Immediately following the discovery of the withered fig tree after the fig tree story, Mark reassures his readers that all is not lost despite the horrors of recent memory and the los of faith in a messiah.

Mark 11:22-24
22 “Have faith in God,� Jesus answered. 23 “Truly I tell you, if anyone says to this mountain, ‘Go, throw yourself into the sea,’ and does not doubt in their heart but believes that what they say will happen, it will be done for them. 24 Therefore I tell you, whatever you ask for in prayer, believe that you have received it, and it will be yours.

The blooming of the fig tree reference in Mark 13 follows a prophecy of the destruction of Jerusalem to be followed by the appearance of the Messiah and the end of days. And this will all happen before everyone who hears Jesus speaking is dead. Mark is writing about forty years after the putative date of that prophecy being made and time is running short. Paul had thought that the Resurrection was the opening of the messianic age and that Jesus would return momentarily. Mark takes the recent terrible events and turns them around, resetting the clock by making the destruction of Jerusalem and the Temple the real beginning of the end.

[lvdyou]

Your response does not make any sense??

Sure it does. Why not think so?

What evil did Israel and Satan engage in??

Rebelled against God.

What good came about??

Managing the tribes responsibly.

[Mithrae]

I'm curious about the betting on whether Jesus will return and supposition about what lvdyou will do/say if he doesn't. Do these posts qualify as 'debate' under the forum rules? Not that I object, since the thread has certainly been kept alive Just curious, in the midst of all the speculation and gambling, whether or not lvdyou is in fact correct in saying that no-one has yet refuted his points in the OP?

I may simply be repeating below what has already been posted, since I haven't read the whole thread. But the gist of what I've seen is that random readers of the thread would have lvdyou's impressive claims on one hand, apparently unrefuted, and on the other comments about failed expectations and wagering that it won't happen. Who wins the argument, I wonder?

I lost interest after the first few pages, and I've only read the last three pages now so I'm not sure if anyone's covered this yet. If not it's probably worth posting. Using NASA's information on lunar eclipses and a Jewish calendar calculator:

1949/50 Lunar tetrad
1949 Apr 13, 04:11:25 - Erev Pesach (eve of Passover, I believe)
1949 Oct 07, 02:56:55 - Erev Sukkot
1950 Apr 02, 20:44:34 - Pesach I
1950 Sep 26, 04:17:11 - Sukkot I . . . . . . . . . . [snip]

I figure one holiday within a tetrad can be more or less ignored as coincidence, especially since there's quite a few with no holidays. Pesach Sheni doesn't seem to be an actual holiday in itself; so if we ignore that, it means that of our 17 tetrads there are 5 which include two Jewish holidays, and only 1 which includes three holidays. In other words, of the 14 besides our three, none have four holidays (of any type), 6 have two or three holidays and 4 of them have no holidays (not even Pesach Sheni). Then there's our three which cover four holidays, in an almost consistent Pesach/Sukkot pattern; the two gone by having begun in years rather significant to Israel's history.

Whether this might mean anything regarding the next tetrad is obviously for the individual to decide, but I figure a few actual, referenced facts can't hurt. Let me know if I've made any mistakes

Hybrid eclipses are those which include both total and annular eclipses. Class 1 hybrids are annular, then total, then annular again - over 90% of hybrid eclipses are of this type. Class 2 are total then annular, and class 3 are annular then total. However the OP is incorrect in saying that class 3 hybrids are the rarest; they have been during the Common Era, but across 5000 years they occur 4.6% of the time (26 occurances), compared with 4.2% for class 2 (24 times).
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SEhybrid5.html

The OP also appears to be incorrect in saying that the 2013 H3 eclipse is only the "4th long H3 since Christ" - it's the eighth, and regarding length it's 1 minute and 40 seconds compared with 1 minute and 23 seconds for the second-shortest since Christ (1m07s for the shortest in 1854). [snip]

Of course if it's the eighth H3 eclipse since Christ and occurs the year before the eighth 'feast tetrad' of lunar eclipses since Christ, that may actually make for a better argument. On that note, I can confirm that 2014/15 is indeed the eighth 'feast tetrad' of lunar eclipses since Christ. [snip] Note however that contrary to the OP's claim that this "is the first time in history two feast Tetrads were this close 18 years apart," the same can be seen in the 842 and 860 tetrads.

On the other hand, besides 2013/14/15 the closest correlation since Christ between these 'feast tetrads' and a H3 or H2 hybrid solar eclipse is the 1489 H3 hybrid and 1493/94 lunar tetrad. Kinda makes it interesting for such a close correlation to occur when it's the eighth H3 hybrid and eighth 'feast tetrad' since Christ. (Also interesting, though perhaps not relevant, that the second-closest correlation is also with a H3 hybrid and occurred around the time the Jews were expelled from Spain in 1492.)

I suppose the next step in my investigation would be to ask whether any of this is relevant at all. Is it as amazing as the 112 trillion-to-one probability which lvdyou claims?

When it comes to eschatalogical prophecies, there's always the possible opinion that they're all complete tosh as far as predicting the future goes - and that's essentially the end of the discussion. Or of course there's the 'wait and see' approach, which everyone pretty much has to do anyway. Or, since there are those who believe we can see some prophetic fulfillments in advance and anticipate certain aspects of the near future, critically examining the facts and methodology used to reach those conclusions from fairly common prior assumptions (ie, biblical inerrancy) seems to me as good a way to pass the time as any - especially since some of the key facts do seem to be accurate.

That said, a major problem in the reasoning of these eager exegetes has already been mentioned by McCulloch and no doubt others in this thread, and by so many critics of past failed interpretations it's rather depressing that the lesson hasn't sunk in yet. Any proposed prophetic interpretation or expected fulfillment should surely be expecting to be criticised on the grounds of being either arbitrary or unremarkable, or both. So simply piling up the (dubious) probabilities of all the arbitrary elements in one's theory does not serve as any kind of valid argument. But can we assign any meaningful probability to this theory as a fulfillment of biblical prophecy?

---

For starters, I'm looking for now only at the lunar and solar eclipses mentioned in the OP, because these celestial signs are firmly established as elements in biblical eschatology (Isaiah 13:10, Joel 2:31, Mark 13:24, Revelation 6:12). In contrast only the last passage mentions an earthquake, and it also says that the sky will recede like a scroll and every mountain and island will move from its place. Secondly, as briefly discussed above (thanks for your input, ThatGirlAgain), I think it's worth bearing in mind that the re-establishment of Israel as a nation was indeed noteworthy as a significant precondition for fulfillment of prophecy. Another reference for lvdyou's claim on that score which didn't occur to me 'til later would be Luke 21:24-25:

• 24 And they will fall by the edge of the sword, and be led away captive into all nations. And Jerusalem will be trampled by Gentiles until the times of the Gentiles are fulfilled. 25 “And there will be signs in the sun, in the moon, and in the stars

Even in passages from the Tanakh which are interpreted in eschatological terms, the presumption is that Israel exists as a nation (perhaps in a couple of cases the re-formation of Israel is part of the events). Many obviously also refer to the temple, which also more or less requires a nation of Israel as a precondition. From 75CE or so onwards (and especially after the second revolt c135CE), these conditions were nowhere near being true; not that it stopped folk predicting that the end would soon occur! It's easy to see why, after over 1800 years, the re-formation of an Israeli state would be considered portentous by any serious student of biblical prophecy.

According to Wikipedia, David ben-Gurion officially declared Israel an independent state in 1948 on the 14th of May, and the next day Israel was invaded by Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Syria and Iraq. It was not until the 1949 Armistice Agreements that overt hostilities were ended, with territorial lines which held until the 1967 Six-Day War. Among other territories captured, during that war Israel gained complete control of Jerusalem.

These, I would suggest, are not at all arbitrary milestones. But as I suggested in post 9, specific date-setting drawn from them will be arbitrary. Hal Lindsay first predicted Christ's return in 1988, a 40-year 'generation' after Israel's formation - then in 2007, a 'generation' after Six-Day War. Now lvdyou is pointing out it's really going to be 75 years after 1948 (not 70 and not 80) - and in a decade he and others will no doubt be saying that it should be 75 years after 1967! By 2050 they'll finally realise that "this generation" hasn't passed away until everyone from it is dead, so what God really meant all along was that it'd be within 120 years (Gen. 6:3) of 1948... or 1967 failing that. Maybe by the end of the century we'll know for sure if Jesus is coming back or not

---

Joel 2:31, which according to Acts was quoted by Peter on Pentecost in the very first sermon of the early church, says that the sun will turn to darkness and the moon to blood before the coming of the "great and terrible day of the Lord." Short of some blatantly supernatural theatrics, a darkened sun would presumably be some kind of solar eclipse and a red moon would be some kind of total lunar eclipse. But total solar eclipses occur 60+ times per century, and it's 80+ times per century for total lunar eclipses - partial lunar eclipses are actually less common.

Tetrads of total lunar eclipses (four in a row) are a recognised astronomical phenomenon listed on NASA's site, and obviously we know about the 1949/50 tetrad and the 1967/68 tetrad. I would say the fact that these two were 'feast tetrads,' occurring on Pesach and Sukkot of the two years, is not in itself a particularly remarkable phenomenon - indeed taken in isolation the 'feast tetrad' concept is somewhat arbitrary, as McCulloch pointed out. (For those interested, between 1 CE and 2400 CE there's 71 lunar tetrads, of which 8 are 'feast tetrads.') However if, following sound prophetic exegesis such as it is, we recognise these years as being noteworthy milestones for interpretation, those precise characteristics in the recognised phenomenon of red-moon tetrads from those years is not, I would say, open to the charge of being arbitrary.

This isn't where we start stacking odds; this is where we might hope to establish some kind of base-line from which to proceed. The Israeli state and control of Jerusalem are non-arbitrary grounds, perhaps, for general anticipation of prophetic fulfillment sometime between 1949 and 2087. The fact that recognised lunar phenomena which produce reddish moons occurred in those years - of course Israel was declared in 1948, but few folk would say that the armistice agreements weren't as significant, if not more so - is interesting. The fact that in all four years of the two tetrads the eclipses occur on Jewish religious holidays - one of which was the holiday in which Jesus supposedly died (Pesach/Passover), and other specifically described as a universal holiday of an eschatological era (Sukkot/feast of tabernacles in Zechariah 14:16) - is a little more interesting. But it doesn't prove anything really. In my opinion, all of this should simply be counted as insurance against the error of arbitrary interpretation or presumed fulfillments. Another of these 'feast tetrads' occurs within our anticipation time-frame - the only other 'feast tetrad' across a 900 year period - so I think I'm safe in saying that the 2014/15 suggestion is not open to any valid accusation of being an arbitrary fulfillment of Joel's criteria.

(On a vague side-note, as far as attribution goes I think it's worth repeating that as far as I've discovered this idea was first proposed by pastor Mark Biltz; on that foundation the theory advanced by lvdyou was apparently developed by Troy Brooks.)

---

Now we can begin to consider odds, to ask whether our proposed interpretation/fulfillment can be dismissed as unremarkable or not. Only once we've got an established, non-arbitrary base-line from which to proceed can we look at other elements of our theory as anything more than coincidence.

Of course we all know that a 2013 H3 hybrid eclipse is proposed as Joel's darkened sun. Another fallacy which lvdyou and others have made is in taking their interpretation/fulfillment as THE event, and (supposedly) calculating the odds that it would occur. The correct methodology is to consider what might be the possible interpretations/fulfillments, and calculate the odds that one of them would come to pass.

Now, I'm pretty talented when it comes to simple maths (even got awards in primary and early high school) but I must confess that for lack of attention I was almost failing by the time I left school, and probability theory is definitely not my forte. So for my own enlightenment (and perhaps so some kindly soul can correct potential mistakes) I'll show my working. This is a good idea in any case: In his own 'calculations' lvdyou claimed "1 in 700 chance long H3 Solar eclipse (won't happen again till 2172)." Since he claims that the relevant figure is only 4 'long' H3 eclipses since 1CE, you'd figure his skewed calculation must have been 4 in 2172... but even that is only 1 in 543! I invite lvdyou to explain this.

For my own purposes, we've got a base-line interpretation of Joel's blood moon as being the 2014/15 'feast tetrad,' the eighth and last one to occur during (at least) the first 24 centuries of the Christian Era. In that light it's absurd to imagine that Joel's darkened sun would be just any old sixty-a-century total solar eclipse - as any sceptic worth his salt would point out, that's unremarkable in the extreme. The rarest kind of eclipse are the hybrids, but they're still 4+ in most centuries and 15+ in many. Our class 3 hybrids are rarer still; but here we need to note that class 2 hybrids are just as uncommon (indeed, across five thousand years they're marginally less common). I think we all know that if it had been a H2 hybrid occurring in 2013 instead of a H3, Christian interpreters would still be parading it around as incredible fulfillment of prophecy.

And what if it had occurred in 2012? Or 2014, during the lunar 'feast tetrad'? I believe that these also would be advanced as proof that Jesus is soon to come.

The lunar tetrad covers roughly 18 months, and presumably some months afterwards and perhaps years beforehand might be considered 'fulfillment' of Joel's criteria. I figure a 5-year time-frame should do the job, neatly divisible into the 5,000 years of data on solar eclipses provided by NASA. Thus:

There's 50 H2 and H3 eclipses over 5000 years, and we've got a 5-year 'target'
Chance of 1 eclipse 'hitting' our target is 1 in 1000
= 0.999 chance to miss per eclipse
Chance ALL will miss is 0.999^5
=0.9512
Thus a 0.0488 (4.88%) chance of getting a H2 or H3 hybrid within our 5 year 'target'

Not very impressive, really - though of course our actual eclipse is within 6 months of the first eclipse in the lunar tetrad. But what really intrigued me earlier in my investigation is the fact that, contrary to the claim in the OP, the 2013 H3 hybrid eclipse is the 8th of its type since the time of Christ, just as the 2014/15 'feast tetrad' is the 8th one since the time of Christ. I had it in mind that 8 was supposedly the number of Christ in the bible; Googling bible numerology just now, the top two results suggest instead that 8 is the number of 'new beginnings,' which is still kind of appropriate - especially since references include 8 people saved from the world's destruction in the Ark, and Jewish boys' foreskins are cut off on the 8th day (these 'new beginnings' don't seem to be a bloodless affair, so to speak). This has been around a lot longer than Mark Biltz's theory about lunar 'feast tetrads,' I'm pretty sure - and even Troy Brooks (God only knows why) apparently emphasised 4 'long' H3 eclipses since Christ. So I wonder; would we be subject to the accusation of being arbitrary if we include our eclipse being the 8th of its type, same as our base-line 'feast tetrad,' in our calculations?

This is a little beyond my knowledge, but here goes:
There's 23 or 25 eclipses of our type (H2 or H3) remaining - 24 average
We need 7 of those to hit our target of 2015ish years
Each eclipse has 2020/5000 chance to 'hit' = 0.404 (A)
Chance of 7 in 24 successes = 0.29166667 (B)
Chance for 7 eclipses to hit our target = A x B
= 0.11783333333

I'm genuinely not sure if that's correct, especially since the corresponding math gives only a 0.42217 probability for 17 eclipses to miss. It is a lot better than my first attempt (below), so I'll go with it for now, but if anyone knows how to work out this kind of probability I'd certainly be grateful

In any case, we had a 4.88% chance to get a rare H2 or H3 hybrid eclipse within a 5-year target area defined by our non-arbitrary interpretation of blood moons vis a vis other biblical prophecy. If, as I propose, it being the 8th of its type the same as the 'feast tetrad' is not merely an arbitrary and irrelevant factoid, the chance of getting such and eclipse AND it being the 8th of its type since Christ is 0.00575, or 0.58%, or 1 in 174.



Anyways, it's getting late and I'm confusing myself, so I'll briefly cover a final possibility. A really significant total eclipse would probably also be accepted by exegetes as fulfillment of Joel's criteria - for example the longest total eclipse since Christ, occurring within a year of the feast tetrad.

P of a total eclipse in a given year is roughly 60 in 100 (A)
P of it being the 'greatest' since Christ is roughly 1 in 2020 (B)
A x B = 0.000297

There's other possibilities, no doubt; maybe the 'greatest' eclipse in the century which also has its course pass over Israel, for example. Since P of best eclipse in a century is about one 20th of best since Christ, a 1 in 20 chance it passes over Israel seems more than fair. And to accomodate even more possible scenarios, I'll just multiply the above by four to account for reasonable total eclipse scenarios = 0.001188ish. So the probability of neither that nor the above H2/H3 scenario occurring is 0.9930687.

In other words, there seems to be roughly a 0.693% (or 1 in 144) chance of a significant eclipse occurring within a reasonable time-frame of our base-line feast tetrad in 2014/15. These scenarios include:
1) A H2 hybrid eclipse within a 5-year target area, which is the 8th since Christ
2) A H3 hybrid eclipse within a 5-year target area, which is the 8th since Christ
3) A total eclipse within a 1-year target area which is the 'greatest' since Christ
4) A total eclipse within a 1-year target area, which passes Israel & is 'greatest' in century
5) Other possible 'significant' total eclipse scenarios, with P roughly equal to 3 + 4

If my maths is even remotely accurate, we should've had about a 1 in 144 chance of any of those occurring.

Of course, our actual scenario is not only a H3 hybrid, the 8th since Christ, but occurs within a 6-month period of the eighth feast tetrad since Christ (which, I again emphasise, was not an arbitrary marker).




------------------------------------

My maths about the odds of 7 H2/H3 eclipses occurring prior to our 2013ish one. It has to be wrong, but be damned if I can work out why.

There's 23 or 25 eclipses of our type (H2 or H3) remaining - 24 average
We need 7 of those to hit our target of 2015ish years
Each eclipse has 2020/5000 chance to 'hit' = 0.404
Chance that 7 will hit is 0.404^7
=0.0016384 (A)
Chance to miss is 0.596
Chance that the other 17 will miss is 0.596^17
= 0.000151 (B)
Chance that 7 will hit AND 17 will miss = A x B
=0.00000024751775362 (C)

Do correct my maths if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure that if we numbered our 24 eclipses (1, 2, 3, 4 etc), that is the chance that a specific seven of them hit our target - say, eclipses #11 to 17 - and all the others miss. But obviously, if eclipses #1-7 hit our target and the others miss, that would also make the 2013 one the 8th since Christ, or if only the even numbered eclipses up to #14 hit, and so on. I spent a few irritating hours trying to work out how many possible scenarios would satisfy our requirement for 7 eclipses of the given type prior to the final one near the base-line feast tetrad. Then I gave up

In a hit/miss scenario with 24 (average) eclipses, the total number of possibilities is 24^2, which obviously includes things like all misses or all hits. So there's obviously considerably fewer than 576 scenarios which are acceptable to us. That means that:
Chance of ONE acceptable scenario is C above
Chance to fail each scenario is 1-C = 0.99999975248 (approx.)
Chance to fail 576 scenarios is 1-C ^ 576
= 0.99985743991892366 (approx.)

...that can't be right...

[lvdyou]

There have been 3 long H3's since Christ acording to NASA so the probability that a long H3 would fall in 2013 right where it needs to be in front of the 2014/15 Tetrad according Rev. 6.12, Joel 2.31 and Acts 2.20 is 3/2012=1/670. I rounded it to 700 for ease of use. If you include the time before Christ it is even more rare than 1 in 700. The H3 is in view because it finishes off as a Total Eclipse and is the rarest of all eclipses. There are 4 kinds of solar eclipses, and the hybrid occurs about 5% of the time, and there are 3 hybrids in which the H3 is the rarest occring about 5% of the time.

The two Tetrads in the 20th century that were 18 years apart and fell on passover and tabernacles and again on passover and tabernacles is the first time this has ever occurred within 18 years apart beteween 1949/50 1967/68. So God is saying pay attention for the next one 2014/15. Won't happen again till 2582/83.

There have been 7 feast Tetrads since Christ. The 8th is 2014/15. You can either say because they occured 18 years apart for the first time in history is an amazing data point. Or you can say since there was 5 feast Tetrads before Christ and 19 centuries since Christ before the 20th century then the probability there would be two feast Tetrads in the 20th century comes to 1/19. Round to 5%. The probability one would fall on one of those two periods (1949/50 or 1967/68) is 2/100 and the probability the remaining Tetrad would fall on the remaining date is 1/99. So 1/20 x 2/100 x 1/99 ~ 1 in 100,000 chance. Wow!

Israel did not begin to bud in 1967 but 1948. 1967 is 18 years after the initial budding. Matt. 24.32-33 says after Israel begins to bud, not after it has been developing many hears, then Jesus returns right at the door.

A generation is not a lifespan in Matt. 24.34 but it is referring to simply a wicked generation so you can't use this verse to say Jesus must return by a certain time.

Matt. 24.33 is referring to the soon return of Jesus right at the door, thus, within a lifetime according to Ps. 90.10 taking the average of 70 to 80 years, in proper context with Israel not being a nation for 2000 or 2500 years.

The previous times Israel was partially a nation don't count because what is distinct this time is that Israel remains a nation forever. They never lose this status once Jesus returns. Jesus never returned in the 2nd century or any other century.

Hence, the Tribulation can't start before 2015 (earthquake 2010/11, long H3 2013, feast Tetrad 2014/15 in that order), nor can it start after 2016 because 75 years since 1948 is 2023. And the only 2,520 day period that fits is Feast of Trumpets Sept. 14, 2015 to Tisha B'Av Aug. 7, 2022. Exactly 2,520 days! God wants you to wake up!

First rapture according to readiness (Matt. 24.40-42, Luke 21.36, Rev. 3.10) is Sept. 14, 2015 "before the throne" (Rev. 7.9) in 3rd heaven before the 1st trumpet of the Tribulation begins and Jesus steps down on the mount of Olives (Zech 14.4) on the day the 1st and 2nd Temples were destroyed.

http://biblocality.com/forums/content.p ... ug.-7-2022

There is nothing new to discover about this that I know of, so we we wait and seek to ovecometh, for those who overcometh will be take up on Sept. 14, 2015 Feast of Trumpets.

[lvdyou]

For those who don't want to read past a couple a sentences, here is the logical proof Jesus returns Tisha B'Av Aug. 7, 2022.

1. Jesus said He would return right at the door once Israel is a nation again.
2. This would not be more than a lifetime since 1948, in context, so no latter than 2023 according to Ps. 90.10.
3. Nor can Jesus return before 2022 because the 3 events, in order, in Rev. 6.12 (Joel 2.31, Acts. 2.20) that occur 2010-15 must occur before the Tribulation starts (before Rev. 8.7).
4. The only 2,520 day period is from Feast of Trumpets, Sept. 14, 2015 to Tisha B'Av Aug. 7, 2022.

First there was the 4 Step Perfect Proof for God,

http://biblocality.com/forums/showthrea ... oach/page2

now there is the 4 Step Perfect Proof for when Jesus returns.

http://biblocality.com/forums/content.p ... ug.-7-2022

[lvdyou]

It's a very simple logical proof founded on the evidence. The evidence has been given already multiple times in this thread so here now the simple logical proof.

1. Jesus said He would return right at the door once Israel is a nation again (begins to bud, not a great tree).

2. Israel began to bud, became a nation again 1948.

3. "Right at the door" is within a lifetime so by 2023 at the latest according to Ps. 90.10 what constitutes a lifetime.

4. Since the Tribulation is 7 years it can't start later than 2016.

5. It can't start before 2015 because the 3 events in Rev. 6.12 (Joel 2.31, Acts 2.20) precede the 1st trumpet of the Tribulation (8.7), and those 3 events occur in order 2010-15.

6. Since there is no 2,520 day period 2016-22, but there is for 2015-22, we know when the Tribulation is: 2,520 days from Feast of Trumpets Sept. 14, 2015 to Tisha B'Av Aug. 7, 2022.

7. And the first rapture according to readiness (Matt. 24.40-42, Luke 21.36, Rev. 3.10) is "before the throne" (7.9) in 3rd heaven Feast of Trumpets Sept. 14, 2015.

Praise the Lord!

[McCulloch]

Praise the Lord indeed.

Now that there is the 4 Step Perfect Proof for when Jesus returns (Aug. 7, 2022), we can expect that all reasonable people will abandon Christianity on Aug. 8, 2022 and peace will reign for one thousand years.

[lvdyou]

Praise the Lord indeed.

Now that there is the 4 Step Perfect Proof for when Jesus returns (Aug. 7, 2022), we can expect that all reasonable people will abandon Christianity on Aug. 8, 2022 and peace will reign for one thousand years.

What's going to happen as your first sign is that Feast of Trumpets Sept. 14, 2015, the 1st day of Daniel's final seven of 2,520 days, a couple million people will vanish to "before the throne" (Rev. 7.9) in 3rd heaven before the 1st trumpet (8.7) commences.

You would likely rationalize it as a fake rapture, some great hoax or magic trick. Even many in Christendom will write it off because they did not treat the first rapture according to readiness. They assumed either the whole Church would be raptured before the Tribulation or at the end of the Tribulation. Since most in Christendom are amillennial any rapture is strictly forbidden, and they reject the Jesus who returns to reign on earth for 1000 years.

So picture yourself on the other side of Sept. 14, 2015. There you are in the Tribulation, not accepting that it is, and the earth is greatly being hurt in the first half of the Tribulation (ch. 8). The Vatican is nuked (see ch. 8, 14.8 and 17.16) and there is chaos in the world but WW III has not yet broken out.

What follows is Great Tribulation of 1260 days starting Feb. 25, 2019. The first 5 months (1st woe) men who have the mark of the beast get sores. In the 2nd woe starting July 25, 2019 the next 13 months 200 million military units (Rev. 9.16) congregate in the middle east over oil. And 1/3 of the people of earth die in nuclear holocaust (v.18).

What remains are 24 months beginning Aug. 18-20, 2020 of the 3rd woe in which people still refuse to repent even after all this that has taken place. At the start of this 3rd woe the general rapture and resurrection (11.15, 15.2-4) takes place of those who are alive and left on the planet who are saved (1 Thess. 4.14-18) as the saints are not appointed unto to the bowls of wrath that make up the last trumpet.

Jesus then steps down at the end of the 2,520 days (Aug. 7, 2022) to judge the nations, kill those who take the mark of the beast and destroys the goat nations for 30 days from the 1260th to the 1290th day then sets up Israel as the center of all nations from the 1290th to the 1335th day (Oct. 21, 2022) from where He will reign in the 3rd Temple for 1000 years before the New City and New Earth start.

Jesus is coming, get ready!

I really liked my response so I added your comment and my response here,

http://biblocality.com/forums/showthrea ... 1#post9411

[McCulloch]

Either that or Sept. 14, 2015, will be a normal day, with nothing special happening. Nothing to explain away, except by those who expected something. I really do not think the Vatican will be nuked in my lifetime. But we'll wait and see. If it is not nuked by Feb. 25, 2019, we can all go home and conclude that Christian prophecies were false.

[lvdyou]

The poll shows as of this day the best information we have according to this poll is that 1 in 23 or 1 in 24 are saved at best.