Facebook's demise

[bluethread]

I hear that there is a sociological study that predicts Facebook will crash due to trend burnout. That is, once something becomes common, it loses it's trendy appeal and becomes unmarketable. Do you think this is what will happen?

[McCulloch]

Would these be the same people who claimed that Rock and Roll was only a fad? Abe Lincoln said, "It is hard enough to predict the past let alone the future." Albert Einstein said, "There will be a day when it will be commonplace to falsely attribute quotes to myself and other thought leaders on the internet."

[bluethread]

Would these be the same people who claimed that Rock and Roll was only a fad? Abe Lincoln said, "It is hard enough to predict the past let alone the future." Albert Einstein said, "There will be a day when it will be commonplace to falsely attribute quotes to myself and other thought leaders on the internet."

What? These are Academics at Princeton University! It's science. How can it be wrong? "Facebook could lose 80 percent of users by 2017, report claims"

[Goat]

Would these be the same people who claimed that Rock and Roll was only a fad? Abe Lincoln said, "It is hard enough to predict the past let alone the future." Albert Einstein said, "There will be a day when it will be commonplace to falsely attribute quotes to myself and other thought leaders on the internet."

What? These are Academics at Princeton University! It's science. How can it be wrong? "Facebook could lose 80 percent of users by 2017, report claims"

let's see the back ground of the people making the claim.

Aerospace and mechanical engineering PH.D. candidates.

And, that gives them the background to make those claims??

[bluethread]

What? These are Academics at Princeton University! It's science. How can it be wrong? "Facebook could lose 80 percent of users by 2017, report claims"

let's see the back ground of the people making the claim.

Aerospace and mechanical engineering PH.D. candidates.

And, that gives them the background to make those claims??

Bu, bu, but, they are using statistical analysis. That is how the government gauges the health of the economy. How can we get through the day, if we start question statistical analysis.

[The Me's]

[Replying to post 1 by bluethread]

Facebook is likely to pass out of style for another much simpler reason:

Something better will come along.

(Remember "My space"? Some don't.)

[JP Cusick]

What? These are Academics at Princeton University! It's science. How can it be wrong? "Facebook could lose 80 percent of users by 2017, report claims"

Well now it is 2017 and the prediction of loss has not happened.

According to statistics Facebook has about 1.86 billion active users. LINK

Based on that number then FB could loose 90 percent of its users and then just 10% would be 186 million users which would still be a huge format.

If any other website could get 100 million members then they would be a BIG success, while FB could loose 800 million and it would still be the King.

Of course if FB lost that many then the stocks would be in panic - but I doubt that Zuckerberg would be that concerned as it was an accident for him. LINK

[amortalman]

[Replying to post 1 by bluethread]

I don't think Facebook is a trendy fad. It might fade away but only when a replacement comes along that is far superior and appealing.

[shnarkle]

I hear that there is a sociological study that predicts Facebook will crash due to trend burnout. That is, once something becomes common, it loses it's trendy appeal and becomes unmarketable. Do you think this is what will happen?

I don't think the trendiness of Facebook will be the biggest factor. I've noticed that there are quite a few facebook pages that will censor or exile anyone who doesn't agree with their point of view. So these facebook pages end up being full of a lot of people who all agree on most of what is posted until something goes up that someone disagrees with at which point they either leave or are banned.

I've run into quite a lot of people who have already burned out on facebook because of this type of thing going on. They post something, and someone takes it the wrong way and there's this petty fight that erupts over a misunderstanding, or some troll gets everyone ticked off and it becomes one troll fest after another.

Then there are people who are posting every little thing they may be doing in the next fifteen minutes. People who have that kind of time on their hands can't have much that is going to interest people for the rest of their lives.

Then there's the fact that facebook is a great way to learn about all sorts of people and get all sorts of personal information on people which some might find a bit suspicious. I had a facebook page and then one day, I couldn't get onto it. None of my security questions worked and I recieved some notification indicating that I would have to provide a valid picture ID. I haven't been back since.

[Tcg]

I hear that there is a sociological study that predicts Facebook will crash due to trend burnout. That is, once something becomes common, it loses it's trendy appeal and becomes unmarketable. Do you think this is what will happen?

I don't think the trendiness of Facebook will be the biggest factor.

It's a bit premature to speculate on what will cause this predicted "crash". The number of Facebook active users has increased ever quarter since this post was created in early 2014 and shows no sign of slowing.