DADT: So Far So Good

[micatala]

http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/20/opinion/s ... ?hpt=hp_t2


Dire predictions of massive morale issues, problems with military recruiting, and potential depletion of the ranks on the basis of allowing gays to serve openly in the military seem not to have come true.







Why were these predictions, made little more than a year ago if that, so far off?


Does this provide any lessons for us on if and when we should give any credence to similar dire predictions? We might think, for example, of the economic apocalypses some predict will happen if the "wrong" candidate wins the upcoming election.

[alive]

http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/20/opinion/s ... ?hpt=hp_t2


Dire predictions of massive morale issues, problems with military recruiting, and potential depletion of the ranks on the basis of allowing gays to serve openly in the military seem not to have come true.







Why were these predictions, made little more than a year ago if that, so far off?


Does this provide any lessons for us on if and when we should give any credence to similar dire predictions? We might think, for example, of the economic apocalypses some predict will happen if the "wrong" candidate wins the upcoming election.

You mean the already Economic Apocalypses that has happened? 16 trillion in debt and the Feds just approved another 40 billion of printing money that we cant back...The only difference will be will one Blame Obama for the worst the U.S.A. has ever been...Or wll one have to blame himself..

[chris_brown207]

http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/20/opinion/s ... ?hpt=hp_t2


Dire predictions of massive morale issues, problems with military recruiting, and potential depletion of the ranks on the basis of allowing gays to serve openly in the military seem not to have come true.







Why were these predictions, made little more than a year ago if that, so far off?


Does this provide any lessons for us on if and when we should give any credence to similar dire predictions? We might think, for example, of the economic apocalypses some predict will happen if the "wrong" candidate wins the upcoming election.

You mean the already Economic Apocalypses that has happened? 16 trillion in debt and the Feds just approved another 40 billion of printing money that we cant back...The only difference will be will one Blame Obama for the worst the U.S.A. has ever been...Or wll one have to blame himself..

I haven't seen ducking and dodging like that since the shoe throw!

But seriously, I think a loud minority may have given the wrong impression about the "impending collapse" of the military. To most of the people I talked to or served with, gays in the military weren't really anywhere at the forefront of their concerns. Most of them were too busy thinking of the next deployment, the long stretches away, whether the guys they were deploying with were going to pull their fair share of the work, and most of all whether they were going to make it back home in one piece.

So, no - it is not surprising to me at all that the military has marched right along without skipping a beat.

[Nickman]

http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/20/opinion/s ... ?hpt=hp_t2


Dire predictions of massive morale issues, problems with military recruiting, and potential depletion of the ranks on the basis of allowing gays to serve openly in the military seem not to have come true.







Why were these predictions, made little more than a year ago if that, so far off?


Does this provide any lessons for us on if and when we should give any credence to similar dire predictions? We might think, for example, of the economic apocalypses some predict will happen if the "wrong" candidate wins the upcoming election.

Being in the military, I saw a lot of people who were saying the same things about the end of military structure and rank, and basically that the military would go to hell. I always knew when I was working with a homosexual either female or male. You can just tell by the mannerisms most of the time, and I am inquisitive, but to think that they would come out and start humping everything in sight and acting foolish was infact foolish for people to think. Its amazing what religious hype and homophobia will do.

[chris_brown207]

Being in the military, I saw a lot of people who were saying the same things about the end of military structure and rank, and basically that the military would go to hell. I always knew when I was working with a homosexual either female or male. You can just tell by the mannerisms most of the time, and I am inquisitive, but to think that they would come out and start humping everything in sight and acting foolish was infact foolish for people to think. Its amazing what religious hype and homophobia will do.

Those guys were saying the same thing about women in the military 20 years ago - I had a female in my Spec Ops detachment, and she could do more pull-ups than a bunch of Marines we trained with one day! They were saying the same thing about blacks in the military 60 years ago, etc. etc.

I think what they are really saying is "MY world is going to be shattered by this event, because it will expose my faults and unfounded prejudices".

[sleepyhead]

Hello,

There are many people who believe what they want to believe regardless of where the evidence leads. They grasp any evidence which supports their view and disregard evidence that doesn't. The dire warnings about climate change appear to be coming true.

[micatala]

http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/20/opinion/s ... ?hpt=hp_t2


Dire predictions of massive morale issues, problems with military recruiting, and potential depletion of the ranks on the basis of allowing gays to serve openly in the military seem not to have come true.







Why were these predictions, made little more than a year ago if that, so far off?


Does this provide any lessons for us on if and when we should give any credence to similar dire predictions? We might think, for example, of the economic apocalypses some predict will happen if the "wrong" candidate wins the upcoming election.

You mean the already Economic Apocalypses that has happened? 16 trillion in debt and the Feds just approved another 40 billion of printing money that we cant back...

Can you point me to any 'apocalyptic consequences' of this debt? What specifically bad has happened, why is it ay worse than previous economic events, and how has it affected people's lives? To me, an apocalypse is a very wide scale and huge catastrophe. What is truly catastrophic on a wide scale about the debt?

The only difference will be will one Blame Obama for the worst the U.S.A. has ever been...Or wll one have to blame himself..

I hold Obama responsible for about 1 trillion of that 16 trillion. He pushed the stimulus, the auto bailouts (although Bush wanted those too and we have already gotten a good chunk of that money back), some tax cuts including a temporary payroll tax cut, and additional troops in Afghanistan. The Affordable Care Act and other actions by Obama have not amounted to even a mite with respect to spending at this point.

The rest of the debt, including most of what has actually accumulated during his Presidency, is due to policies implemented by previous Presidents and for which the U.S. government is responsible regardless of who is in office (e.g. the Bush prescription drug benefits, his tax cuts, the wars he started, automatic spending committments on food stamps, unemployment, etc.), or is due to the recession, which drastically reduced federal tax revenues.




I would also point out that, as I understand, a good two-thirds of that debt is held by U.S. entities and so serves basically as a safe, albeit low yield, investment for those entities. Thus, the interest we pay on that through the government largely goes back to at least some of us in terms of safe earnings. Some also goes abroad, which you might say is bad, but it does have the benefit of bringing foreign capital into the country and keeping other nations invested in our success.

In addition, a lot of that debt, especially the debt we have taken on recently, is at very low interest rates. As long as interest rates stay low, it is costing us next to nothing to borrow that money.


Now, if interest rates did suddently sky rocket while all that debt was still on the books, then that would probably be somewhat apocalyptic. So, we do need to plan for the long term to bring the debt down to a manageable level before rates go up appreciably.

[dianaiad]

http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/20/opinion/s ... ?hpt=hp_t2


Dire predictions of massive morale issues, problems with military recruiting, and potential depletion of the ranks on the basis of allowing gays to serve openly in the military seem not to have come true.







Why were these predictions, made little more than a year ago if that, so far off?


Does this provide any lessons for us on if and when we should give any credence to similar dire predictions? We might think, for example, of the economic apocalypses some predict will happen if the "wrong" candidate wins the upcoming election.

You mean the already Economic Apocalypses that has happened? 16 trillion in debt and the Feds just approved another 40 billion of printing money that we cant back...

Can you point me to any 'apocalyptic consequences' of this debt? What specifically bad has happened, why is it ay worse than previous economic events, and how has it affected people's lives? To me, an apocalypse is a very wide scale and huge catastrophe. What is truly catastrophic on a wide scale about the debt?

California teachers can't get jobs teaching. (including me) Very few people have any equity in their homes unless they've been living in them for, quite literally, decades, and a huge percentage of homeowners are actually upside down in their mortgages (even me, and I bought the home I own as a foreclosure, at less than half what it sold for at it's highest selling price). Between the Federal deficit and the California one, MY life has been personally pulled apart to the point that I will not ever be able to 'retire.'

The real unemployment rate is something like 13% and rising as more and more people give up. There are more people on food stamps right now than there have ever been. More people getting government subsidies of some sort than there have ever been....and no, I'm not one of them, though I AM eligible for several. I'm just--stubborn.

The day I actually get food stamps is the day I know I will have been utterly defeated---and the debt is a huge part of that. HUGE. the DEBT is the reason we can't get the gas prices down, because we have no negotiation leverage (and Obama wants it up anyway...he has said so often enough).

Micitala, we simply cannot DO this any more. We can't keep running on a deficit like this. We can't stay in debt like this. If you don't think that the debt isn't going to hurt us, look at Europe. Look at Greece!

[micatala]

http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/20/opinion/s ... ?hpt=hp_t2


Dire predictions of massive morale issues, problems with military recruiting, and potential depletion of the ranks on the basis of allowing gays to serve openly in the military seem not to have come true.







Why were these predictions, made little more than a year ago if that, so far off?


Does this provide any lessons for us on if and when we should give any credence to similar dire predictions? We might think, for example, of the economic apocalypses some predict will happen if the "wrong" candidate wins the upcoming election.

You mean the already Economic Apocalypses that has happened? 16 trillion in debt and the Feds just approved another 40 billion of printing money that we cant back...

Can you point me to any 'apocalyptic consequences' of this debt? What specifically bad has happened, why is it ay worse than previous economic events, and how has it affected people's lives? To me, an apocalypse is a very wide scale and huge catastrophe. What is truly catastrophic on a wide scale about the debt?

California teachers can't get jobs teaching. (including me)

True enough, but how is this due to the debt? In addition, this situation would arguably be worse had we not passed the stimulus bill. Many teachers had their jobs saved due to federal support for state budgets. This did vary by state, and I am not overly familiar with the situation in California. In my state, districts faced about a 5% budget cut a year ago. Without stimulus funds, they would have faced a much bigger cut 2 years earlier with a lot greater job loss among teachers.

Very few people have any equity in their homes unless they've been living in them for, quite literally, decades, and a huge percentage of homeowners are actually upside down in their mortgages (even me, and I bought the home I own as a foreclosure, at less than half what it sold for at it's highest selling price).

True enough. This problem, however, had been developing for years, and I am not sure how it is directly tied to the federal debt. It certainly predates Obama. I was responding alive's comment that the debt counted as an apocalyptic result and that we should either blame Obama or ourselves for that.

I would say the home market collapse is at least pretty close to something that might qualify as apocalyptic. It was very wide spread, although more serious on the coasts. It has been long lasting. On the other hand, the situation is getting better, albeit slowly. To me, apocalyptic is something you simply don't ever fully recover from. Something that produces permanent change. Maybe that is not a good definition, however.


So, at least a serious situation, more serious than the vast majority of other economic problems we have faced over the last couple of decades at least. On the other hand, not really due to the federal debt per se or anything Obama did. This situation would have existed in pretty much the same form whoever won the election in 2008.

Between the Federal deficit and the California one, MY life has been personally pulled apart to the point that I will not ever be able to 'retire.'

You have my sympathy. I know others in your boat. I have a friend with a large chunk of his retirement equity tied up in a house in Florida that is not likely to see the purchase price of that house for at least another 5 years.

Hoewever, this is a separate issue from the federal debt.

The real unemployment rate is something like 13% and rising as more and more people give up.

True enough. I read this is particularly true in Florida, where many people have given up. I would describe the employment situation we have been through as pretty close to apocalyptic. Long term changes in the employment situation along with the current situation may mean we will never see the low unemployment rates and earnings levels that existed in the 1990's.


Again, not that you have to tie into what alive said, but this is not due to the deficit nor is it Obama's fault. Yes, I know you think in four years this situation should be better. I have yet to see any good explanation for why the situation we faced in 2008 should be appreciably better than it is now. I have a lot of reason to believe it could have been a lot worse with actions taken at the end of the Bush Administration and the beginning of the Obama situation.

There are more people on food stamps right now than there have ever been.

Due to the second worst recession we have had in the last 100 years.

More people getting government subsidies of some sort than there have ever been....and no, I'm not one of them, though I AM eligible for several. I'm just--stubborn.

I'll assume you are right on this. But again, how is this caused by the deficit? This occurred partly because the recession made a whole lot of people eligible for unemployment, TANF, etc.

The day I actually get food stamps is the day I know I will have been utterly defeated---and the debt is a huge part of that. HUGE. the DEBT is the reason we can't get the gas prices down, because we have no negotiation leverage (and Obama wants it up anyway...he has said so often enough).

This at least addresses the debt. However, I see no reason that the debt is driving gas prices up. That is determined by global supply and demand. Gas prices now are about what they were in the summer of 2008. In fact, adjusted for inflation gas prices are even still a bit lower than they were then I believe. They went down to a very low level in early 2009 due to the economic collapse. They are rising partly due to economic growth.

Who is supposed to be doing the "negotiating" here on gas prices?

Micitala, we simply cannot DO this any more. We can't keep running on a deficit like this. We can't stay in debt like this. If you don't think that the debt isn't going to hurt us, look at Europe. Look at Greece!

I would agree that in the long term, we need to take care of the debt problem. However, we should realize that we can make things worse by overreacting to the short term situation. In 1937, the Republican COngress pushed through budget cuts because of concern for the deficit, and they sent the economy back down hill big time. We should avoid making the same mistake.

I agree we have difficult issues we need to deal with, and these including Medicare and in the long term Social Security. However, we do not need to panic.



I would say comparisons with Greece are pretty ridiculous. Greece is a very fundamentally different nation in a lot of ways. The differences include the size of the economy, the make up of that economy as far as the types of goods and services we produce versus them, the taxation structure, etc. And one huge difference is that we are considered the safest place to invest in the world. Right now, people are pretty much paying us to take their money on loan. No one is doing that in Greece.


I would agree if we ignore our problems for another decade, we could be in serious trouble. However, we will never be like Greece.

[dusk]

In addition, a lot of that debt, especially the debt we have taken on recently, is at very low interest rates. As long as interest rates stay low, it is costing us next to nothing to borrow that money.

The government should sell some few trillions in extra bond and pump into some investments like buying dividend stocks or anything worthwhile. So cheap money. Germany even earns money when they sell short term bonds.

I wonder though how the republicans want to fix things. First reducing income even more and than hope for miracle growth to reduce some 15 years in the future. All the while slashing the basis for economic strength like education, research, infrastructure.

All the problems Europe has in the south are more the opposite. They don't have decent bureaucracy with low corruption and fair dealing. It is quite obvious what is the difference between the north and the south.
The US has everything they need in the economy. It is the private sector that just doesn't have any money where it is needed. The so called job creators don't invest because they see no growth or potential for increased consumption, so they hold on to their money and pump it like there is no tomorrow in the last few safe havens US, Germany, Norway, ...
The negative savings rate I remember they already started to ring the alarm bells in the frist Bush term. Now there is a correction due to the mortgages and it takes time. At some point people will spend more again if they have money again.
The question is will they have money then. It is the consumption of the US middle classe that drove the entire worlds economy.
What would be needed is India, China, Latin America to seriously start consuming and stop dumping their currency. In some ways it is therefore quite good that both EZB and Fed print money. It will devalue our currencies and create much stronger consumption in those rising markets.
For us it will mean more expensive resources and food and all the other stuff we import.

Most people I think don't realize that at the rate the rest of the world is catching up all resources will be split by much much more people. This will drive our inflation in the coming decades regardless what we try. Things will get more expensive and the only stuff that helps is producing energy at home, recycling and using less resources. The cheap throwaway culture won't work in 30 years.