Facebook's demise

[bluethread]

I hear that there is a sociological study that predicts Facebook will crash due to trend burnout. That is, once something becomes common, it loses it's trendy appeal and becomes unmarketable. Do you think this is what will happen?

[shnarkle]

I hear that there is a sociological study that predicts Facebook will crash due to trend burnout. That is, once something becomes common, it loses it's trendy appeal and becomes unmarketable. Do you think this is what will happen?

I don't think the trendiness of Facebook will be the biggest factor.

It's a bit premature to speculate on what will cause this predicted "crash". The number of Facebook active users has increased ever quarter since this post was created in early 2014 and shows no sign of slowing.

But how does that number compare to the number of people who are entering the age of technology, or the number of people who are dropping facebook? Looking at a number in isolation doesn't tell the real story.

[Tcg]

I hear that there is a sociological study that predicts Facebook will crash due to trend burnout. That is, once something becomes common, it loses it's trendy appeal and becomes unmarketable. Do you think this is what will happen?

I don't think the trendiness of Facebook will be the biggest factor.

It's a bit premature to speculate on what will cause this predicted "crash". The number of Facebook active users has increased ever quarter since this post was created in early 2014 and shows no sign of slowing.

But how does that number compare to the number of people who are entering the age of technology, or the number of people who are dropping facebook? Looking at a number in isolation doesn't tell the real story.

It is not one number, it is a serious of numbers from each quarter over the last 4+ years. All of those numbers indicate a growth in the number of Facebook active users in every quarter. If you have some means to argue that these numbers indicate an impending "crash" of Facebook, please feel free to present that argument.

[shnarkle]

I hear that there is a sociological study that predicts Facebook will crash due to trend burnout. That is, once something becomes common, it loses it's trendy appeal and becomes unmarketable. Do you think this is what will happen?

I don't think the trendiness of Facebook will be the biggest factor.

It's a bit premature to speculate on what will cause this predicted "crash". The number of Facebook active users has increased ever quarter since this post was created in early 2014 and shows no sign of slowing.

But how does that number compare to the number of people who are entering the age of technology, or the number of people who are dropping facebook? Looking at a number in isolation doesn't tell the real story.

It is not one number, it is a serious of numbers from each quarter over the last 4+ years. All of those numbers indicate a growth in the number of Facebook active users in every quarter. If you have some means to argue that these numbers indicate an impending "crash" of Facebook, please feel free to present that argument.

That's not my argument. My argument is pointing out that to simply present a number that is growing doesn't necessrily show that facebook is growing at the same rate. In other words, if the number of facebook users is growing by 5% annually, and the number of people who are going online is also growing at 5%, and the population is growing at 10%, and the number of people who are leaving facebook is growing at 2%, then facebook isn't actually growing at all in relation to population growth or those who are beginning to go online.

This happens all the time. People see that they're getting 2% interest on their savings, but they don't understand how they can be losing money when inflation is at 7 or 8 %. They arent' making money at all. By the same token, Facebook could be experiencing a decline in growth in relative numbers.

[Tcg]

I hear that there is a sociological study that predicts Facebook will crash due to trend burnout. That is, once something becomes common, it loses it's trendy appeal and becomes unmarketable. Do you think this is what will happen?

I don't think the trendiness of Facebook will be the biggest factor.

It's a bit premature to speculate on what will cause this predicted "crash". The number of Facebook active users has increased ever quarter since this post was created in early 2014 and shows no sign of slowing.

But how does that number compare to the number of people who are entering the age of technology, or the number of people who are dropping facebook? Looking at a number in isolation doesn't tell the real story.

It is not one number, it is a serious of numbers from each quarter over the last 4+ years. All of those numbers indicate a growth in the number of Facebook active users in every quarter. If you have some means to argue that these numbers indicate an impending "crash" of Facebook, please feel free to present that argument.

That's not my argument.

Then you aren't addressing the OP nor my reaction to it.

My argument is pointing out that to simply present a number that is growing doesn't necessrily show that facebook is growing at the same rate.

Once again, it is not one number. Additionally, I never claimed that Facebook is growing at the same rate. As before, you are not addressing the facts I have presented.

[shnarkle]

I hear that there is a sociological study that predicts Facebook will crash due to trend burnout. That is, once something becomes common, it loses it's trendy appeal and becomes unmarketable. Do you think this is what will happen?

I don't think the trendiness of Facebook will be the biggest factor.

It's a bit premature to speculate on what will cause this predicted "crash". The number of Facebook active users has increased ever quarter since this post was created in early 2014 and shows no sign of slowing.

But how does that number compare to the number of people who are entering the age of technology, or the number of people who are dropping facebook? Looking at a number in isolation doesn't tell the real story.

It is not one number, it is a serious of numbers from each quarter over the last 4+ years. All of those numbers indicate a growth in the number of Facebook active users in every quarter. If you have some means to argue that these numbers indicate an impending "crash" of Facebook, please feel free to present that argument.

That's not my argument.

Then you aren't addressing the OP nor my reaction to it.

I did both, and you're just ignoring what I posted.

My argument is pointing out that to simply present a number that is growing doesn't necessrily show that facebook is growing at the same rate.

Once again, it is not one number.[/quotue]

It's a number that isn't related to any other number other than the numbers of people who are joining facebook. Again, this doesn't tell us much of anything. You keep ignoring that simple fact. So what if people join facebook, if twice as many people are joining some new competing entity then facebook is losing market share.

Additionally, I never claimed that Facebook is growing at the same rate.

You didn't supply any rate of growth which as I pointd out before tells us absolutely nothing.

As before, you are not addressing the facts I have presented.

I'm addressing the fact that your factoids are useless.

[Tcg]

I hear that there is a sociological study that predicts Facebook will crash due to trend burnout. That is, once something becomes common, it loses it's trendy appeal and becomes unmarketable. Do you think this is what will happen?

I don't think the trendiness of Facebook will be the biggest factor.

It's a bit premature to speculate on what will cause this predicted "crash". The number of Facebook active users has increased ever quarter since this post was created in early 2014 and shows no sign of slowing.

But how does that number compare to the number of people who are entering the age of technology, or the number of people who are dropping facebook? Looking at a number in isolation doesn't tell the real story.

It is not one number, it is a serious of numbers from each quarter over the last 4+ years. All of those numbers indicate a growth in the number of Facebook active users in every quarter. If you have some means to argue that these numbers indicate an impending "crash" of Facebook, please feel free to present that argument.

That's not my argument.

Then you aren't addressing the OP nor my reaction to it.

I did both, and you're just ignoring what I posted.

My argument is pointing out that to simply present a number that is growing doesn't necessrily show that facebook is growing at the same rate.

Once again, it is not one number.

It's a number that isn't related to any other number other than the numbers of people who are joining facebook.

I never referred to the numbers of people who are joining Facebook. Once again, your post doesn't address what I did state.

[shnarkle]

I never referred to the numbers of people who are joining Facebook. Once again, your post doesn't address what I did state.

No doubt about it. You basically posted a whole lot of nothing. Just some claim that some people are joining facebook as if that means anything. I addressed the fact that your meaningless post was essentially and effectively meanginless in that it tells us nothing. It doesn't tell us how many people are dropping facebook It doesn't tell us how many people use facebook or how many people who have joined who don't use facebook. It doesn't tell us how the numbers of people who are joining compare with population growth, or how it compares with competitors. I can assure you those who have a significant stake in facebook are going to know those numbers because those are the numbers that matter. A simple observation that people continue to join facebook is completely useless. Thanks for making my points for me.

[Tcg]

[Replying to post 1 by bluethread]

It was announced today that Mark Zuckerberg is now the third richest person in the world. Co-founding and CEOing a failure such as Facebook must be very lucrative.

Apparently many users of Facebook are indeed smart enough to remember their logins and they use them quite regularly.