Why accept the LEAST likely explanation?

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Zzyzx
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Why accept the LEAST likely explanation?

Post #1

Post by Zzyzx »

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Why accept the LEAST likely explanation?

If a tomb is found empty there are many possible reasons why it does not contain a body. The least likely is that the dead body came back to life and went away.

If stories claim that animals converse in human language the most likely explanation is that the stories are myths, fables, legends, etc. The least likely is that animals did actually converse with humans once upon a time.

If a person testifies that they had a "vision" or "visitation" there are many possibilities – from delusion, hallucination, overwrought emotions, dreams to outright fabrication. The least likely explanation seems to be an actual visit from a supernatural entity.

If claims are made that a "holy spirit" gives chosen people special knowledge the possibilities include that such claims are completely unfounded, that they originate from indoctrination, that they are a form of self-aggrandizement or self-deception. The least likely seems to be an actual imparting of knowledge supernaturally.

If we discover that our car has a flat tire the possibilities include that it has a hole or that someone let out air. Would we rationally think that invisible spirits flattened the tire to punish us?

If our belief system promotes the least likely answer, is it not time to reexamine our acceptance of the belief system?
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Post #2

Post by tam »

Least likely explanation does not mean that least likely explanation is false. So if one has evidence that the least likely explanation is true, then one should accept that least likely explanation.


What people accept as evidence... (not proof)... well, that is another matter.


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Re: Why accept the LEAST likely explanation?

Post #3

Post by puddleglum »

Zzyzx wrote: If a tomb is found empty there are many possible reasons why it does not contain a body. The least likely is that the dead body came back to life and went away.
If the tomb had been guarded by soldiers so that all other explanations were ruled out the least likely explanation would have to be true. Sherlock Holmes said that if you eliminate all of the impossible explanations the one that is left, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.

And what if the man who had been in the tomb appeared to you and you could see for yourself that he was still alive?
His invisible attributes, namely, his eternal power and divine nature, have been clearly perceived, ever since the creation of the world, in the things that have been made.
Romans 1:20 ESV

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Re: Why accept the LEAST likely explanation?

Post #4

Post by OnceConvinced »

Zzyzx wrote: .
Why accept the LEAST likely explanation?

If a tomb is found empty there are many possible reasons why it does not contain a body. The least likely is that the dead body came back to life and went away.

If stories claim that animals converse in human language the most likely explanation is that the stories are myths, fables, legends, etc. The least likely is that animals did actually converse with humans once upon a time.
From a Christian perspective these things are not in question. It’s not about what is the most likely answer. The bible already tells us about those things and because we believe the bible to be the word of God, then we believe them.
Zzyzx wrote:
If a person testifies that they had a "vision" or "visitation" there are many possibilities – from delusion, hallucination, overwrought emotions, dreams to outright fabrication. The least likely explanation seems to be an actual visit from a supernatural entity.
We of course have to be a little sceptical here. Any Christian would be. The mind can be easily fooled and things that happen at night can indeed be just dreams. Dreams can seem very vivid and real. Any Christian who automatically believes another Christian when they say they had a vision or visitation is being rather gullible. Admittedly many do believe reputable Christians when they claim things like this. I too believed those church members I trusted, particularly pastors and visiting evangelists.

As a Christian though you are open to the possibility of these things because the bible contains such events and the bible is of course the word of God, so therefore must be true.

Zzyzx wrote:
If claims are made that a "holy spirit" gives chosen people special knowledge the possibilities include that such claims are completely unfounded, that they originate from indoctrination, that they are a form of self-aggrandizement or self-deception. The least likely seems to be an actual imparting of knowledge supernaturally.
Such claims of having the holy spirit should indeed be taken with a grain of salt. Even as a Christian you have to consider the fact that the person who claims to have the holy spirit may actually just be looking at it from his own perspective, not the holy spirit’s.
Zzyzx wrote:

If we discover that our car has a flat tire the possibilities include that it has a hole or that someone let out air. Would we rationally think that invisible spirits flattened the tire to punish us?
No, we would look for natural explanations. Anything that happens that seems extra-ordinary, even a Christian should first look for a natural explanation. If there is none, then maybe we can consider a supernatural explanation.
Zzyzx wrote:
If our belief system promotes the least likely answer, is it not time to reexamine our acceptance of the belief system?
Indeed, but a Christian must look to the bible for their ultimate guidance. If the bible… the word of God… tells us something happened a certain way, who are we to argue with it?

Society and its morals evolve and will continue to evolve. The bible however remains the same and just requires more and more apologetics and claims of "metaphors" and "symbolism" to justify it.

Prayer is like rubbing an old bottle and hoping that a genie will pop out and grant you three wishes.

There is much about this world that is mind boggling and impressive, but I see no need whatsoever to put it down to magical super powered beings.


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Re: Why accept the LEAST likely explanation?

Post #5

Post by Zzyzx »

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puddleglum wrote: If the tomb had been guarded by soldiers so that all other explanations were ruled out the least likely explanation would have to be true.
Was a tomb guarded by soldiers? There are Bible tales that tell that story; however, those claims are not substantiated – and they seem to be contrary to Roman practices at the time (which included leaving criminals' bodies to rot on the pole or to be thrown in a garbage dump).
puddleglum wrote: Sherlock Holmes said that if you eliminate all of the impossible explanations the one that is left, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.
Okay, what alternatives have been eliminated?
puddleglum wrote: And what if the man who had been in the tomb appeared to you and you could see for yourself that he was still alive?
Again, there are tales by followers to have seen the dead person "alive" after execution. 1) such tales are not uncommon among followers of various "gods", 2) the only place such a "miraculous" event is mentioned is in religion promotional literature written by unidentified people decades or generations (or longer) after the claimed event.

Would you (generic term) believe such unverifiable tales if told about one of the thousands of other proposed "gods?"
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Re: Why accept the LEAST likely explanation?

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Post by rikuoamero »

[Replying to post 5 by Zzyzx]
Was a tomb guarded by soldiers? There are Bible tales that tell that story; however, those claims are not substantiated – and they seem to be contrary to Roman practices at the time (which included leaving criminals' bodies to rot on the pole or to be thrown in a garbage dump).
Even if there was a tomb guarded by soldiers, how do we rule out the soldiers being suborned in some way? They could have been bribed. Not likely, given the famed discipline of Roman legionnaires, but not impossible either. As a Christian poster up above quoted Holmes as saying, this too remains a possibility that must be discarded, in order for me to say "It's likely a dead man came back to life".

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Re: Why accept the LEAST likely explanation?

Post #7

Post by puddleglum »

Zzyzx wrote: Why accept the LEAST likely explanation?
Because sometimes the least likely explanation is the true one.
His invisible attributes, namely, his eternal power and divine nature, have been clearly perceived, ever since the creation of the world, in the things that have been made.
Romans 1:20 ESV

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Re: Why accept the LEAST likely explanation?

Post #8

Post by Haven »

[Replying to post 7 by puddleglum]

This isn't really accurate. An explanation that's physically and/or logically impossible is the least likely, and it has essentially zero chance of being true.
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Re: Why accept the LEAST likely explanation?

Post #9

Post by Zzyzx »

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puddleglum wrote:
Zzyzx wrote: Why accept the LEAST likely explanation?
Because sometimes the least likely explanation is the true one.
Okay. A young woman becomes pregnant. The most likely explanation is direct sexual contact with a male. Another possibility, though less likely, is that she was artificially inseminated. A third, and least likely, is that she was impregnated by an invisible supernatural spirit.

Take your choice.

Note: About one percent of US women giving birth claim to be virgins.

Now, make the pregnancy part of a religious story and large numbers of people will believe in virgin spiritual impregnation. Such is the nature of supernatural beliefs.
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Re: Why accept the LEAST likely explanation?

Post #10

Post by rikuoamero »

puddleglum wrote:
Zzyzx wrote: Why accept the LEAST likely explanation?
Because sometimes the least likely explanation is the true one.
Thing is...how do we determine the least likely explanation is in fact the true one, if we don't account for more likely explanations first? We can't rule out that Mary was knocked up by some other man, or that Joseph got her pregnant before they were married, and thus either or both of them made up the story of a divine birth to try and save themselves from being stoned.
How exactly do you rule out every other possibility?

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