As the most likely outcome will present us with the ‘choice’ of the nominee of the Democratic Party versus the nominee from the Republican side, why does it seem unlikely to you that HRC will not win the election? The GOP is somewhat in disarray and as of today, the likely GOP nominee wouldn’t fare well against Clinton if polling is anywhere near predictive. Moreover, should the GOP establishment ‘right the ship’ and produce a more ‘electable’ candidate, presently that look like it would be either Rubio or Cruz, who, once again, would not be strong national candidates.
I am not making a value judgement one way or another, but if one were to place bets there would be two fairly easy wagers:
1. HRC will win the Democratic nomination
2. She will win a national election against either Trump or Carson
The first is somewhat of a lock, the second seem to backed by polling. Absent a serious (unexpected) development, it would seem that an HRC victory is more likely than not.