The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Argue for and against Christianity

Moderator: Moderators

Post Reply
User avatar
bluegreenearth
Guru
Posts: 1917
Joined: Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:06 pm
Location: Manassas, VA
Has thanked: 681 times
Been thanked: 470 times

The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #1

Post by bluegreenearth »

Here is how wikipedia describes falsifiability:
Informally, a statement is falsifiable if some observation might show it to be false. For example, "All swans are white" is falsifiable because "Here is a black swan" shows it to be false. Formally, it is the same, except that the observations used to prove falsifiability are only logical constructions distinct from those that are truly possible.

Falsifiability differs from verifiability, which was held as fundamental by many philosophers such as those of the Vienna Circle. In order to verify the claim "All swans are white" one would have to observe every swan, which is not possible, whereas the single observation "Here is a black swan" is sufficient to falsify it.

It was introduced by the philosopher of science Karl Popper in his book The Logic of Scientific Discovery (1934), as an answer to both the Problem of Induction and the Demarcation Problem. He saw falsifiability as the cornerstone of critical rationalism, his theory of science.

As a key notion in the separation of science from non-science, it has featured prominently in many scientific controversies and applications, even being used as legal precedent.
Popper noticed that two types of statements are of particular value to scientists. The first are statements of observations, such as 'this is a white swan'. Logicians describe such statements in terms of existential quantification, since they assert the existence of some particular thing. For Popper, such statements form the empirical basis of scientific theory. The second type of statement of interest to scientists categorizes all instances of something, for example "All swans are white". Logicians describe these in terms of universal quantification.

One of the questions in Scientific method is: how does one move from observations to laws? From an existential statement to a universal statement? This is the problem of induction. Suppose we want to put the theory that all swans are white to the test. We come across a white swan. We cannot validly argue from "here is a white swan" to "all swans are white"; doing so would be to affirm the consequent.

Popper's solution to this problem is to flip it upside down. He noticed that while it is impossible to verify that every swan is white, finding a single black swan shows that not every swan is white. We might tentatively accept the proposal that every swan is white, while looking out for examples of non-white swans that would show our conjecture to be false. This is the basis of critical rationalism.

Falsification uses the valid inference modus tollens: if from a statement P (say some law with some initial condition) we logically deduce Q, but what is observed is neg Q, P is false. For example, given the law "all swans are white" and the initial condition "there is a swan here", we can deduce "the swan here is white", but if what is observed is "the swan here is not white" (say black), then "all swans are white" is false, or it was not a swan.
Questions to be considered and debated:

1) Did the method by which a specified theistic belief was acquired adhere to the principle of falsifiability as described above?

2) If the method of theistic belief formation did not adhere to the principle of falsifiability, what other accessible and logical mechanism would demonstrate if a specified theistic belief is false?

3) When there is no accessible and logical mechanism for determining if a specified theistic belief is false, what is the justification for acquiring and defending this belief given that it places the representative apologists in the impossible position of never having an ability to determine if the belief is mistaken?

User avatar
SallyF
Guru
Posts: 1459
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:32 pm
Been thanked: 1 time

Post #2

Post by SallyF »

We don't need to go past Gen 1:1 to demonstrate that biblical theistic belief is false.

"In the beginning the biblical versions of God created the Heavens and the Earth."

Staying simply within the sphere of extant written mythology/"scripture" …

The very earliest extant record of this biblical claim is from the time of Herod the Great.

We have extant records that numerous other God concepts had already created the Heavens and the Earth LONG before the biblical concepts of God.

The biblical claim and beliefs are therefore false …

From a purely mythological/"scriptural" perspective.

I will leave reality alone at this point.
"God" … just whatever humans imagine it to be.

"Scripture" … just whatever humans write it to be.

Thomas123
Sage
Posts: 774
Joined: Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:04 am
Has thanked: 122 times
Been thanked: 37 times

Post #3

Post by Thomas123 »

All swans are white was just false to begin with. No Australian would let you away with that! The statement facilitated it's own falsification . Young swans are grey in their first year. Have you a more immediate example that we can consider together.?

User avatar
bluegreenearth
Guru
Posts: 1917
Joined: Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:06 pm
Location: Manassas, VA
Has thanked: 681 times
Been thanked: 470 times

Post #4

Post by bluegreenearth »

Thomas Mc Donald wrote: All swans are white was just false to begin with. No Australian would let you away with that! The statement facilitated it's own falsification Have you a more immediate example that we can consider together.?
The example works precisely because it was eventually falsified. Prior to being falsified, the claim was not known to be false but had the potential to be falsified by demonstrating the existence of a black swan. You are analyzing the statement from the perspective of the claim having already already been falsified by someone discovering the existence of a black swan. To understand the value of falsifiability, you need to consider the example from the perspective of someone who had no prior knowledge of black swans.

Thomas123
Sage
Posts: 774
Joined: Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:04 am
Has thanked: 122 times
Been thanked: 37 times

Post #5

Post by Thomas123 »

I understand the point in general.
If I write down something like God is Good it is basically impolite.
If I write that worship of Yahweh, the God of the Old Testament, is needed in the world today. Is this still inappropriate and unfalsifable .
If I say that all Yahweh worshippers are good then we are back with white swans.

In the middle example, surely the successes and failures that the Jewish people have had with this worship would have been the platform for creating falsibility among opponents of the proposal.. That was the type of argument I was anticipating on my Yahweh thread. It barely surfaced . My Jewish history isn't the finest but I was prepared to make my case.

bjs
Prodigy
Posts: 3222
Joined: Mon Apr 05, 2010 4:29 pm

Re: The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #6

Post by bjs »

[Replying to post 1 by bluegreenearth]

The problem I see with this is that it reduces all truth to scientific truth.

For instance, one of the important arguments for God is the moral argument. I am not going to argue the whole moral argument here (please don’t bother trying), but I bring it up because one of the pieces of evidence for the moral argument is this: Rape is wrong.

I cannot think of any way to falsify that statement. There is no possible evidence that would convince me that rape is morally right.

Yet despite being unfalsifiable, I still say that it is true. It is not scientific truth, but it is still true.

So I think that there is a clear limit to the necessity of falsifiability.

User avatar
Purple Knight
Prodigy
Posts: 3519
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:00 pm
Has thanked: 1140 times
Been thanked: 733 times

Re: The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #7

Post by Purple Knight »

bjs wrote:Rape is wrong.

I cannot think of any way to falsify that statement. There is no possible evidence that would convince me that rape is morally right.
If you are a believer in God as moral by definition (which is required for the argument you reference) then your falsification of rape is wrong would simply be God saying that rape was right.

Personally, if rape became societally lauded and praised as a good act rather than denounced an evil one, I would believe rape was good.

Rape is wrong has plenty of falsification conditions if you look at it critically.

bjs
Prodigy
Posts: 3222
Joined: Mon Apr 05, 2010 4:29 pm

Re: The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #8

Post by bjs »

Purple Knight wrote:
bjs wrote:Rape is wrong.

I cannot think of any way to falsify that statement. There is no possible evidence that would convince me that rape is morally right.
If you are a believer in God as moral by definition (which is required for the argument you reference) then your falsification of rape is wrong would simply be God saying that rape was right.
No, that is not true. God could not say that rape is good and remain God. The argument I referenced is itself dependent on God not saying that rape is good.
Purple Knight wrote: Personally, if rape became societally lauded and praised as a good act rather than denounced an evil one, I would believe rape was good.
Wait, really? I just want to make sure that you are serious and intend to stand by this statement. Do you genuinely believe that if you were in a society that declared rape lauded then you would consider rape to be good?

User avatar
brunumb
Savant
Posts: 6002
Joined: Thu Nov 02, 2017 4:20 am
Location: Melbourne
Has thanked: 6627 times
Been thanked: 3222 times

Re: The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #9

Post by brunumb »

[Replying to post 6 by bjs]
The problem I see with this is that it reduces all truth to scientific truth.
What exactly is scientific truth and how is it different from, well, truth?
George Orwell:: “The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those who speak it.”
Voltaire: "Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities."
Gender ideology is anti-science, anti truth.

User avatar
brunumb
Savant
Posts: 6002
Joined: Thu Nov 02, 2017 4:20 am
Location: Melbourne
Has thanked: 6627 times
Been thanked: 3222 times

Re: The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #10

Post by brunumb »

[Replying to post 6 by bjs]
For instance, one of the important arguments for God is the moral argument.
Morality can exist without God. It is established by empathetic, intelligent beings in order to foster the well being of all members of their their society.
George Orwell:: “The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those who speak it.”
Voltaire: "Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities."
Gender ideology is anti-science, anti truth.

Post Reply