The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

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bluegreenearth
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The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #1

Post by bluegreenearth »

Here is how wikipedia describes falsifiability:
Informally, a statement is falsifiable if some observation might show it to be false. For example, "All swans are white" is falsifiable because "Here is a black swan" shows it to be false. Formally, it is the same, except that the observations used to prove falsifiability are only logical constructions distinct from those that are truly possible.

Falsifiability differs from verifiability, which was held as fundamental by many philosophers such as those of the Vienna Circle. In order to verify the claim "All swans are white" one would have to observe every swan, which is not possible, whereas the single observation "Here is a black swan" is sufficient to falsify it.

It was introduced by the philosopher of science Karl Popper in his book The Logic of Scientific Discovery (1934), as an answer to both the Problem of Induction and the Demarcation Problem. He saw falsifiability as the cornerstone of critical rationalism, his theory of science.

As a key notion in the separation of science from non-science, it has featured prominently in many scientific controversies and applications, even being used as legal precedent.
Popper noticed that two types of statements are of particular value to scientists. The first are statements of observations, such as 'this is a white swan'. Logicians describe such statements in terms of existential quantification, since they assert the existence of some particular thing. For Popper, such statements form the empirical basis of scientific theory. The second type of statement of interest to scientists categorizes all instances of something, for example "All swans are white". Logicians describe these in terms of universal quantification.

One of the questions in Scientific method is: how does one move from observations to laws? From an existential statement to a universal statement? This is the problem of induction. Suppose we want to put the theory that all swans are white to the test. We come across a white swan. We cannot validly argue from "here is a white swan" to "all swans are white"; doing so would be to affirm the consequent.

Popper's solution to this problem is to flip it upside down. He noticed that while it is impossible to verify that every swan is white, finding a single black swan shows that not every swan is white. We might tentatively accept the proposal that every swan is white, while looking out for examples of non-white swans that would show our conjecture to be false. This is the basis of critical rationalism.

Falsification uses the valid inference modus tollens: if from a statement P (say some law with some initial condition) we logically deduce Q, but what is observed is neg Q, P is false. For example, given the law "all swans are white" and the initial condition "there is a swan here", we can deduce "the swan here is white", but if what is observed is "the swan here is not white" (say black), then "all swans are white" is false, or it was not a swan.
Questions to be considered and debated:

1) Did the method by which a specified theistic belief was acquired adhere to the principle of falsifiability as described above?

2) If the method of theistic belief formation did not adhere to the principle of falsifiability, what other accessible and logical mechanism would demonstrate if a specified theistic belief is false?

3) When there is no accessible and logical mechanism for determining if a specified theistic belief is false, what is the justification for acquiring and defending this belief given that it places the representative apologists in the impossible position of never having an ability to determine if the belief is mistaken?

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Re: The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

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Post by Danmark »

bluegreenearth wrote:
1) Did the method by which a specified theistic belief was acquired adhere to the principle of falsifiability as described above?

2) If the method of theistic belief formation did not adhere to the principle of falsifiability, what other accessible and logical mechanism would demonstrate if a specified theistic belief is false?

3) When there is no accessible and logical mechanism for determining if a specified theistic belief is false, what is the justification for acquiring and defending this belief given that it places the representative apologists in the impossible position of never having an ability to determine if the belief is mistaken?
1) Obviously not
2) Excellent question! And the answer is "nothing."
3) The only justification is tribal loyalty and cohesion. These theistic beliefs are all tribal, at least in origin. They serve to keep the tribe together. They unify beliefs. Shouting the beliefs in unison comforts and sustains.

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Re: The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #32

Post by Danmark »

Aetixintro wrote: [Replying to post 1 by bluegreenearth]

Let's say I need God in my life in order to have meaning, that is, so that my life has meaning by God and Heaven and all that. I sense that this conviction is very important. As this is in the religion box, why would I bother to submit my important religious belief to some scientific method of Falsifiability?

So to Falsifiability. If there is one belief system that has been nailed lately it's "Atheism" by The Necessity of Atheism which is scientifically refuted in several ways. Let me provide you with 2:
1. You can actually image ghosts by modern radiology. No links on the internet as of yet, but I know it exists as matter of fact.
2. Telepathy is actually possible by quantum computing. Check this out, Seth Raphael:
[youtube][/youtube]
and
[youtube][/youtube]
It appears you have been taken in by an April Fool's joke.
As an April Fool's prank on April 1, 2008, at the MIT Media Lab, Randi pretended to award the prize to magician Seth Raphael after participating in a test of Raphael's "psychic abilities."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Milli ... _Challenge

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Re: The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #33

Post by Aetixintro »

[Replying to post 32 by Danmark]

I know that it's fact. The date is just a coincidence. You see for yourself what happens there. It's not enough to brush it off as mere April's Fool's joke. It's important that we know about the World and not only these people who bolster basic sentences of science!
I'm cool! :) - Stronger Religion every day! Also by "mathematical Religion", the eternal forms, God closing the door on corrupt humanity, possibly!

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Re: The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #34

Post by benchwarmer »

Aetixintro wrote: [Replying to post 32 by Danmark]

I know that it's fact. The date is just a coincidence. You see for yourself what happens there. It's not enough to brush it off as mere April's Fool's joke. It's important that we know about the World and not only these people who bolster basic sentences of science!
Either you are trying to make a poor attempt at an April fools joke yourself or you never bothered to even watch the video you are pointing at.

See 26:40 of the video if you don't want to waste 26 mins of your life. I saw the comments of the video and skipped to the end to verify.

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Re: The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #35

Post by Aetixintro »

[Replying to post 34 by benchwarmer]

I KNOW WHAT'S GOING ON! IT'S FACT! I'VE SEEN THE VIDEO, EACH, AT LEAST 2 TIMES! THEY'RE GREAT! Please, read what I write! You don't direct my opinion!

Why is it fact? Because it uses OR gate operationalized alphabet and imaging, if not the entire video making, and exploits wonder of nature by this OR gate of electrons in the computer's processor to make words, drawings, videos on an empty canvas.

You should know that sometimes people know something you do not and with close relation to it as well! Benchwarmer...

:study: 8-)
I'm cool! :) - Stronger Religion every day! Also by "mathematical Religion", the eternal forms, God closing the door on corrupt humanity, possibly!

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Re: The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #36

Post by historia »

bluegreenearth wrote:
Did the method by which a specified theistic belief was acquired adhere to the principle of falsifiability as described above?
What do you mean by "theistic" belief? Just religious beliefs in general?
bluegreenearth wrote:
Does your method of belief formation include falsifiability?
It depends on the type of belief.

Do you think it is necessary that all beliefs are falsifiable?

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Re: The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #37

Post by Purple Knight »

bluegreenearth wrote:Meanwhile, the claim that swans do not shoot fireballs is a more reliable belief because it could be falsified by the existence of one swan that can shoot fireballs.
Plus ten billion and here's why:

The belief that some swans can shoot fireballs is not falsifiable, and not supported by any form of evidence.

The belief that swans exist is not falsifiable, but it is supported by evidence.
bluegreenearth wrote:The claim, "swans exist," does not qualify as an unfalsifiable belief because it is describing a direct observation.
It's exactly as unfalsifiable (and I am really getting mad at the spellchecker now; this is a word) as the claim that some swans can shoot fireballs. The Wikipedia page even admits this: The claim that someday, a red raven will appear is not specific enough to be falsifiable. Well, so too the claim that someday, a swan will appear, or someday, a swan will shoot a fireball.

It is absolutely a demonstration that observation, without the need of falsifiability, can create a reliable belief. Without either, you can only create an unreliable belief, such as: Some swans can shoot fireballs.

It just means it's important to have at least one: Falsifiability, or some form of evidence. Pick at least one.

Dear Spellcheker: From Hell's heart, I stab at thee!!! ...With a swan!

Image

https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-17736292
A man has drowned after being attacked by a swan, which knocked him out of his kayak and stopped him swimming to shore.

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Re: The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #38

Post by bluegreenearth »

[Replying to post 37 by Purple Knight]

It appears we are getting hung-up on the distinction between belief and knowledge. While knowledge is a subset of belief, to know something is true is categorically distinct from merely believing something is true. The claim, "swans exist," is not an unfalsifiable belief because it is a knowledge statement grounded in observation. Once we know a claim is true, it ceases to be a mere belief. This is at least how I define knowledge and belief in my epistemology.

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Re: The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #39

Post by Danmark »

Aetixintro wrote: [Replying to post 32 by Danmark]

I know that it's fact. The date is just a coincidence. You see for yourself what happens there. It's not enough to brush it off as mere April's Fool's joke. It's important that we know about the World and not only these people who bolster basic sentences of science!
Did you read the article? Randi and the 'winner' both agreed they did it as a prank; that the 'win' was bogus. When you have clear evidence from the principals involved, telling you they did it as a prank, how can you possibly still claim it happened?

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Re: The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #40

Post by Purple Knight »

bluegreenearth wrote:It appears we are getting hung-up on the distinction between belief and knowledge. While knowledge is a subset of belief, to know something is true is categorically distinct from merely believing something is true. The claim, "swans exist," is not an unfalsifiable belief because it is a knowledge statement grounded in observation. Once we know a claim is true, it ceases to be a mere belief. This is at least how I define knowledge and belief in my epistemology.
Okay, fair enough. But just note that it's easy for that distinction to get blurry, especially if one person has knowledge that another one lacks. For example, one person has seen a swan and one has not.

That's why I think it's easier to say: Falsifiability, or evidence.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/dog-swan- ... irish-park
Dog killed in swan attack at park in Ireland

“We started screaming at the swan, trying to distract it,� a man who was feeding ducks nearby said. “The poor dog didn’t realize what was going on and swam straight for the swan.�

The man told the news outlet the swan lifted up its wings and attacked the dog "with one wing and then the other."

"That stunned the poor thing," he said. "Three or four more slaps and she was gone."

The dog's owner was extremely distraught, according to the witness and a park ranger. The dog's body was reportedly removed from the pond using a paddle boat and net.
Image

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