A Deluge of Evidence for the Flood?

Creationism, Evolution, and other science issues

Moderator: Moderators

Post Reply
User avatar
LittlePig
Sage
Posts: 916
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2008 1:51 pm
Location: Dallas, TX

A Deluge of Evidence for the Flood?

Post #1

Post by LittlePig »

otseng wrote:
goat wrote:
otseng wrote:
LittlePig wrote: And I can't think of any reason you would make the comment you made if you weren't suggesting that the find favored your view of a worldwide flood.
Umm, because simply it's a better explanation? And the fact that it's more consistent with the Flood Model doesn't hurt either. ;)
Except, of course, it isn't consistent with a 'Flood Model', since it isn't mixed in with any animals that we know are modern.
Before the rabbits multiply beyond control, I'll just leave my proposal as a rapid burial. Nothing more than that. For this thread, it can just be a giant mud slide.
Since it's still spring time, let's let the rabbits multiply.

Questions for Debate:

1) Does a Global Flood Model provide the best explanation for our current fossil record, geologic formations, and biodiversity?

2) What real science is used in Global Flood Models?

3) What predictions does a Global Flood Model make?

4) Have Global Flood Models ever been subjected to a formal peer review process?
"Well thanks a lot, Plato." - James ''Sawyer'' Ford
"Don''t flip ya lid." - Ricky Rankin

User avatar
Goat
Site Supporter
Posts: 24999
Joined: Fri Jul 21, 2006 6:09 pm
Has thanked: 25 times
Been thanked: 207 times

Post #721

Post by Goat »

micatala wrote:
otseng has made a number of predictions based on the FM, and has challenged others to provide predictions of the SG. I will have more to say on this when we talk about the grand canyon as some of the more recent remarks on the grand canyon seem to conflict with previously made statements and predictions regarding the FM, but I don't want to digress off ice cores until we have explored that topic a bit more.


.
Has he made predictions based on the flood model??? I don't think so. He has pointed to some various pictures of geological features, and has proclaimed that the flood model predicts this.

What is missing is 'how does it predict it', and 'what are the mechanisms in the flood model that predict this'.
“What do you think science is? There is nothing magical about science. It is simply a systematic way for carefully and thoroughly observing nature and using consistent logic to evaluate results. So which part of that exactly do you disagree with? Do you disagree with being thorough? Using careful observation? Being systematic? Or using consistent logic?�

Steven Novella

User avatar
micatala
Site Supporter
Posts: 8338
Joined: Sun Feb 27, 2005 2:04 pm

Post #722

Post by micatala »

goat wrote:
micatala wrote:
otseng has made a number of predictions based on the FM, and has challenged others to provide predictions of the SG. I will have more to say on this when we talk about the grand canyon as some of the more recent remarks on the grand canyon seem to conflict with previously made statements and predictions regarding the FM, but I don't want to digress off ice cores until we have explored that topic a bit more.


.
Has he made predictions based on the flood model??? I don't think so. He has pointed to some various pictures of geological features, and has proclaimed that the flood model predicts this.

What is missing is 'how does it predict it', and 'what are the mechanisms in the flood model that predict this'.
He has said that the FM would predict that when faults or folding occur, they should effect they entire sequence of strata from bottom to top. Thus, according to the FM you should NOT see for example layers A through F with a fault or slippage or folding and then layers G through L on top of these without the faulting or folding.

He has said that the SG would predict that you would see this type of phenomenon "uniformly distributed" throughout the record, or that it would be "the norm." I'm not sure we ever settled what "uniformly distributed" meant.



I pointed out that there is a feature towards the bottom of the grand canyon that does show what he says the SG would predict and what the FM says should not exist. He said the layers that have been faulted might have existed prior to the flood. I intend to revisit that issue after we are done with ice cores.



I am sensing that everyone besides me and possibly otseng is tired of the ice core discussion. I guess we could move on, but I was hoping we could come to some resolution on the ice core situation before doing so. THis is partly because, if we do establish that the experts are correct in the dating of the cores, this one line of evidence by itself falsifies a flood within the age of the ice sheets, which experts date to at least 500,000 years, and one location is being dated to over 700,000 years. otseng has said his FM gives 100,000 years as the oldest allowable date for the flood. He has also allowed that the ice sheets do not show evidence for a flood. Only the dating remains an issue.
" . . . the line separating good and evil passes, not through states, nor between classes, nor between political parties either, but right through every human heart . . . ." Alexander Solzhenitsyn

User avatar
micatala
Site Supporter
Posts: 8338
Joined: Sun Feb 27, 2005 2:04 pm

Post #723

Post by micatala »

micatala wrote:Here is an article on visual stratigraphy from Greenland.

http://www.gfy.ku.dk/~www-glac/ngrip/pa ... fs/206.pdf

It has a 2005 publication date. The article includes quite a number of good graphics, including a sample of 9 fairly long ice core samples from varying depths.

This will take some time to wade through, but does seem very relevant to the discussion. It specifically mentions how deep the visual layers can be discerned.


To paraphrase the hawkers of reading material of various kinds, "if you only read one article on ice cores this week, this is the one!"


OK. Let's see what this article has to say:
A continuous high-resolution record of digital images has been obtained from the
North Greenland Ice Core Project (NorthGRIP) ice core (75.1N, 42.3W) in the depth interval from 1330 m to the bedrock at 3085 m. The ice core stratigraphy is clearly visible throughout the glacial period with the most frequent and brightest visible layers appearing during the coldest events. Down to a depth of 2600 m the horizontal layering is very regular; below this depth, small irregularities in the layering start to appear, and below 2800 m the visual stratigraphy becomes more uncertain, perhaps because of penetration into climatically warmer ice.

Comparison of the visual stratigraphy with high-resolution continuous records of chemical impurities and dust reveals a high degree of correlation, which indicates that the visible layers are caused by these impurities. A new approach is used to automatically determine annual layer thicknesses from the visual stratigraphy record by carrying out a frequency analysis of the most prominent visible layers in the profile. The result gives strong support for the NorthGRIP timescale model.
Using the techniques described later, visual layers are clearly discernible.

THey are highly correlated with other data.

THey strongly support the existing timescale for this area. For the record, the ice sheet here is said to go back 123,000 years.
The ice core is 3085 m long and covers the Holocene, the
entire last glacial period, and part of the previous interglacial
period, the Eemian, back to approximately 123 kyr BP.
The images are obtained digitally using a mechanism which backlights the core indirectly. This is described on page 2.

Nine sample images from various depths are shown on page 3. Certainly the layers show a lot of variation regarding thickness, sharpness, contrast, etc. but are for the most part very clearly discernible.

The article notes that the visual analysis was compared with several types of chemical analyses, including "calcium Ca++, sodium Na+, ammonium NH4
+, sulphate SO4 , nitrate NO3 , the electrolytical conductivity of
the melt water, and the amount of insoluble dust."




The stratigraphy appearance can change significantly with previously determined past climactic changes.



Throughout the glacial period, the ice core stratigraphy
is clearly visible. During the coldest climatic events the
intensity and the frequency of visible layers or cloudy bands
are highest (Figures 2b–2d). During milder interstadials the
layering is also clearly visible after contrast enhancement of
the images, even when the stratigraphy of the core is barely
visible to the naked eye. An example of an abrupt climatic
transition during the glacial period is given in Figure 2e,
which shows the transition into the mild glacial interstadial
19 as a sharp drop in intensity of the VS over some 10 cm of
ice. The glacial profile is very detailed and reveals very
sharp transitions in the occurrence of visible layers, which
show a large variability in intensity and thickness even over
short depth intervals (Figure 3c).

Later on that page the authors describe how the lower layers show bending and are less discernible. Clearly the authors are being cautious not to overstate the case.

Presence of volcanic ash in some layers is clearly discernible and noted. See Figure 3b on page 5.

1506.1 m depth, the visible ‘‘Vedde’’ ash layer in
Younger Dryas (also shown in Figure 2b).
This layers is mentioned in wikipedias page on Tephochronology, which is the science of using volcanic tephra in dating. The key is:


The premise of the technique is that each volcanic event produces ash with a unique chemical "fingerprint" that allows the deposit to be identified across the area affected by fallout. Thus, once the volcanic event has been independently dated, the tephra horizon will act as time marker.
See also http://www.tephrabase.org/tephrochron.html.


The Vedde Ash layer has been identified in a number of areas in Iceland and Norway and even Great Britain. It is dated to over 10,000 years before the present.
[url=http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6WPN-45N44P5-1X&_user=8505058&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1042009561&_rerunOrigin=google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=8505058&md5=a44ab4dd8e109477f7caf5f9421fcb5f]Birks et al[/url] wrote: The Vedde Ash Bed (mid-Younger Dryas) and the Saksunarvatn Ash (early Holocene) are important regional stratigraphic event markers in the North Atlantic, the Norwegian Sea, and the adjacent land area. It is thus essential to date them as precisely as possible. The occurrence of the Saksunarvatn Ash is reported for the first time from western Norway, and both tephras are dated precisely by AMS analyses of terrestrial plant material and lake sediment at Kråkenes. The Vedde Ash has been previously dated at sites in western Norway to about 10,600 yr B.P. It is obvious in the Younger Dryas sediments at Kråkenes, and its identity is confirmed geochemically. The mean of four AMS dates of samples ofSalix herbacealeaves adjacent to the tephra is 10,310 ± 50 yr B.P. The Saksunarvatn Ash is not visible in the early Holocene lake sediment at Kråkenes. After removal of organic material and diatoms, the identity of the tephra particles was confirmed geochemically, and their stratigraphic concentration was estimated. From curve matching of a series of seven AMS dates of terrestrial plant macrofossils and whole sediment, the radiocarbon age of the ash is 8930–9060 yr B.P., corresponding to an age of 9930–10,010 cal yr B.P. (7980–8060 cal yr B.C.).
THis was confirmed by a number of other abstracts for scientific articles.



Thus, we have additional support for several previous claims.

1) Visual layers, albeit enhanced by various techniques, are visible thousands of meters below the surface.
2) We see not only annual layers, but also larger scale variations in climate based on the brightness or darkness of the bands. I had alluded to this possibility earlier in discussing pictures of snow pits.
3) Visual layers are correlated with many other types of data, including chemical data. FOr example, note the incredible correspondence shown in Figure 4 on page 6 of the Svensson article between the visual stratigraphy and the O18 profile. Sharp rises in the visual intensity correspond exactly with sharp drops in the stable isotope graph.
4) Volcanic events can be discerned within layers and can be used as markers.

Now, to address otseng's suggestion that scientists cannot tell which layers are annual and which are not, note in this (and other articles) scientists are careful to note how confident they can be the layers are annual and when the layers do not have sufficient integrity to be used for dating. There is no indication that scientists are blithely assuming anything they see is an annual layer. Rather, they carefully test whether the visual stratigraphy corresponds with other dating measures.

Note that we have an event, the Vedde Ash layer, dated by carbon dating, fossil analysis and other means not involving ice cores to a little over 10,000 years before the present.

Note that this later, identified by its chemical signature, is found in the Northern Greenland ice core.



Considering the careful and cautious nature of the discussion in this article, if the visual stratigraphy indicated say 20,000 layers prior to the Vedde event instead of about 10,000, don't you think the scientists writing this article would have noted that. But instead, they note that their visual stratigraphy provides strong support for the dating conclusions that had already been reached.




How is it at all credible to suggest that scientists are confusing multiple layers created by individual snowfall events with annual layers??




As one final citation, here is an abstract which discusses comparisons of multiple ice cores with several other types of dating evidences.



Abstract
A new Greenland Ice Core Chronology (GICC05) based on multi-parameter counting of annual layers has been obtained for the last 42 ka. Here we compare the glacial part of the new time scale, which is based entirely on records from the NorthGRIP ice core, to existing time scales and reference horizons covering the same period. These include the GRIP and NorthGRIP modelled time scales, the Meese-Sowers GISP2 counted time scale, the Shackleton–Fairbanks GRIP time scale (SFCP04) based on 14C calibration of a marine core, the Hulu Cave record, three volcanic reference horizons, and the Laschamp geomagnetic excursion event occurring around Greenland Interstadial 10. GICC05 is generally in good long-term agreement with the existing Greenland ice core chronologies and with the Hulu Cave record, but on shorter time scales there are significant discrepancies. Around the Last Glacial Maximum there is a more than 1 ka age difference between GICC05 and SFCP04 and a more than 0.5 ka discrepancy in the same direction between GICC05 and the age of a recently identified tephra layer in the NorthGRIP ice core. Both SFCP04 and the tephra age are based on 14C-dated marine cores and fixed marine reservoir ages. For the Laschamp event, GICC05 agrees with a recent independent dating within the uncertainties.
Note the multi-parameter counting.

Note they freely admit that one chronology might by off by as much as 1000 years from another. However, this is within an overall chronology going back 42000 years. Again, if there was a huge problem discerning between snowfall events which might take place once or twice a year to over a dozen in some areas with annual layers, how would scientists be off by less than 5% between dating techniques that are being used not only in ice but on land and in sea? How would all the different methods and locations still give results that are so close over periods of many tens of thousands of years?




All of this seems to put the Greenland ice sheet at clearly over 40,000 years and with a good deal of confidence over 120,000 years.
" . . . the line separating good and evil passes, not through states, nor between classes, nor between political parties either, but right through every human heart . . . ." Alexander Solzhenitsyn

User avatar
otseng
Savant
Posts: 20851
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2004 1:16 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA
Has thanked: 214 times
Been thanked: 366 times
Contact:

Post #724

Post by otseng »

micatala wrote:First, let's be clear where an ambiguity lies. I am not an expert and so am not going to pretend to be. If I have been ambiguous in my statements, or if my statements disagree with grumpy's or nygreenguy's or scotracer's, this confusion should not be attributed to the experts.
Yes, none of us are experts on ice cores by any stretch of the imagination. And I would even grant that experts might be able to visually recognize annual layers. But if this is the case, should there not be a universally accepted and accessible definition and thus all ambiguity can be resolved?
http://www.gfy.ku.dk/~www-glac/ngrip/pa ... fs/206.pdf

To paraphrase the hawkers of reading material of various kinds, "if you only read one article on ice cores this week, this is the one!"
I will read through that paper.
I am sensing that everyone besides me and possibly otseng is tired of the ice core discussion. I guess we could move on, but I was hoping we could come to some resolution on the ice core situation before doing so.
I don't mind sticking with ice cores for now. But, I also realize that many people are involved in the debate and would like to discuss different things.

User avatar
otseng
Savant
Posts: 20851
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2004 1:16 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA
Has thanked: 214 times
Been thanked: 366 times
Contact:

Post #725

Post by otseng »

Scotracer wrote: Your numbers assume no compression of lower layers due to the pressure from above - which is something we see in reality.

http://debatingchristianity.com/forum/v ... 520#263520

Could you please clarify this.
Thinking about this, I do not think the thinner layers at the bottom are primarily a result of the weight from the ice above it. The weight of the ice can attribute to some, but not for very much.

The density of ice is 0.9167 g/cm3 at 0 C (273.15 K) and standard atmospheric pressure (101.325 kPa)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice

Looking at this chart, the density of ice is fairly uniform from below 0 C and below 10E8 Pa. Density only becomes significantly higher when pressure is above 10E8 Pa. This level of pressure is not realized at depths even under 10000 meters of ice.

Image
http://www1.lsbu.ac.uk/water/phase.html

If the density of ice is fairly uniform under pressure under 10E8 Pa and temperature below 0 C, then layers cannot be much thinner at the bottom of the ice cap simply due to the weight of the ice above it.

User avatar
Scotracer
Guru
Posts: 1772
Joined: Tue Apr 28, 2009 5:25 pm
Location: Scotland

Post #726

Post by Scotracer »

After re-reading the relevant posts I can see you took the equivalent water, not the thickness of snow. No issue now.

But it appears odd how one can come up with a rough value of 44,000 years yet we have Ice Cores aged over half a million years.
Why Evolution is True
Universe from nothing

Claims made without evidence can be dismissed without evidence
- Christopher Hitchens

User avatar
nygreenguy
Guru
Posts: 2349
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:23 am
Location: Syracuse

Post #727

Post by nygreenguy »

otseng wrote:
Scotracer wrote: Your numbers assume no compression of lower layers due to the pressure from above - which is something we see in reality.

http://debatingchristianity.com/forum/v ... 520#263520

Could you please clarify this.
Thinking about this, I do not think the thinner layers at the bottom are primarily a result of the weight from the ice above it. The weight of the ice can attribute to some, but not for very much.

The density of ice is 0.9167 g/cm3 at 0 C (273.15 K) and standard atmospheric pressure (101.325 kPa)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice

Looking at this chart, the density of ice is fairly uniform from below 0 C and below 10E8 Pa. Density only becomes significantly higher when pressure is above 10E8 Pa. This level of pressure is not realized at depths even under 10000 meters of ice.

Image
http://www1.lsbu.ac.uk/water/phase.html

If the density of ice is fairly uniform under pressure under 10E8 Pa and temperature below 0 C, then layers cannot be much thinner at the bottom of the ice cap simply due to the weight of the ice above it.
...Deeper into the core the layers thin out due to ice flow and high pressure and eventually individual years cannot be distinguished.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_core#Core_processing


Once again Otseng, you are making hypothesis about science which you dont understand.

You think that if the ice is thinner, it must be because its becoming more dense. IS this necessarily the case? If you push down on a pancake, is it becoming denser OR is it simply spreading out?

It snows all the time here in syracuse. Weve been called the snowiest city in the world. So, I hate shoveling. I REALLY hate shoveling. So, instead I just put on my hiking boot and go out. Now, after I keep walking on my steps with snow I start to notice the snow becomes more and more compact. Eventually, it becomes ice. Now, did I change the density of ice? No. I removed the air and spaces in between the snowflakes.

How do you know this isnt what happens to the ice?

User avatar
micatala
Site Supporter
Posts: 8338
Joined: Sun Feb 27, 2005 2:04 pm

Post #728

Post by micatala »

otseng wrote:
micatala wrote:First, let's be clear where an ambiguity lies. I am not an expert and so am not going to pretend to be. If I have been ambiguous in my statements, or if my statements disagree with grumpy's or nygreenguy's or scotracer's, this confusion should not be attributed to the experts.
Yes, none of us are experts on ice cores by any stretch of the imagination. And I would even grant that experts might be able to visually recognize annual layers. But if this is the case, should there not be a universally accepted and accessible definition and thus all ambiguity can be resolved?
Well, I guess I see no reason to assume that reality is always unambiguous.

However, I think if you read the article in detail you will see that the experts acknowledge where ambiguity or uncertainty exists, but they are able to make some conclusions concerning dating with a high degree of confidence. The "light band and dark band" criteria seems to work just fine in most circumstances. It is backed up by "multi-parameter" testing.


The one thing I think we could investigate further is how the stratigraphy changes as the layers become more deeply buried. We know there is some compression. It would be interesting to see if we could find some examples of layers like those in the snow pit pictures being examined by the stratigraphy techniques like those in this article.
" . . . the line separating good and evil passes, not through states, nor between classes, nor between political parties either, but right through every human heart . . . ." Alexander Solzhenitsyn

User avatar
otseng
Savant
Posts: 20851
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2004 1:16 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA
Has thanked: 214 times
Been thanked: 366 times
Contact:

Post #729

Post by otseng »

micatala wrote: http://www.gfy.ku.dk/~www-glac/ngrip/pa ... fs/206.pdf

To paraphrase the hawkers of reading material of various kinds, "if you only read one article on ice cores this week, this is the one!"
I've read through it. And it has some interesting items in there.

One key figure in the paper is on page 3 with actual images from selected ice core samples.

Image

The images are from increasing depth from left to right.
a - 1354.65–1356.30 m depth
b - 1504.80–1506.45 m depth
c - 1750.65–1752.30 m depth
d - 1836.45–1838.10 m depth
e - 2534.40–2536.05 m depth
f - 2537.70–2539.35 m depth
g - 2651.55–2653.20 m depth
h - 2899.05–2900.70 m depth
i - 3017.30–3018.95 m depth

In a, layers are not evident. But going down 150 more meters, layers are evident. Starting in e, layers become more irregular. In g and h, layers are much more inclined. In i, layers are gone.

The paper does not explain in depth why such patterns are found.

The paper proposes a method to determine annual layers through a "random removal procedure" based on the "ss09sea" model and involving a multi-step sampling with Gaussian filtering. Though it does show that their model matches the "ss09sea" model, it does not claim to provide any absolute dating through their model.

The paper also acknowledges that multiple layers per year can and does exist. And that visual counting of layers is "proven difficult".
because some years may experience more
depositional events than others, some annual layers will
appear as multiple visible layers in the VS profile, while
others may only be weakly represented in the stratigraphy.
Inspection of the VS profile, at depths where the annual
layers can be identified from the CFA profiles, shows that
‘‘multiple-layer’’ years appear frequently. Another difficulty
is caused by the great variability in intensity of the visible
layers, which complicates the counting. Depending on the
contrast enhancement of the images and on the selection
criteria used for identifying the layers, one can end up
counting a wide range of layers within the same ice core
section, e.g., as the contrast of an image is increased, more
and more layers tend to appear. For those reasons, accurate
dating from direct counting of the VS profile alone generally
has proven difficult.

User avatar
nygreenguy
Guru
Posts: 2349
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:23 am
Location: Syracuse

Post #730

Post by nygreenguy »

otseng wrote:
The paper does not explain in depth why such patterns are found.
Not exactly true. Unless that is the focus of the paper, there is no need to go into depth, but after a quick scan, I found this:
Fabric measurements of the deep NorthGRIP ice
suggest that the flow regime of the ice changes around
2500 m depth from a confined compression to a simple
shear deformation characterized by a strong single maximum
fabric [Wang et al., 2002].
This gives and explanation, and a source to some of the morphological variation. You are expected to track down the cited source if you wish to know more.

The paper also acknowledges that multiple layers per year can and does exist. And that visual counting of layers is "proven difficult".
Well, to be honest they said that using VS ONLY it is difficult, they never said its ALWAYS difficult. They ALSO added some solutions (almost 2 pages worth) to how they overcome this difficulty, but you left that part out of your quote.
because some years may experience more
depositional events than others, some annual layers will
appear as multiple visible layers in the VS profile, while
others may only be weakly represented in the stratigraphy.
Inspection of the VS profile, at depths where the annual
layers can be identified from the CFA profiles, shows that
‘‘multiple-layer’’ years appear frequently. Another difficulty
is caused by the great variability in intensity of the visible
layers, which complicates the counting. Depending on the
contrast enhancement of the images and on the selection
criteria used for identifying the layers, one can end up
counting a wide range of layers within the same ice core
section, e.g., as the contrast of an image is increased, more
and more layers tend to appear. For those reasons, accurate
dating from direct counting of the VS profile alone generally
has proven difficult.

Post Reply