A Deluge of Evidence for the Flood?

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A Deluge of Evidence for the Flood?

Post #1

Post by LittlePig »

otseng wrote:
goat wrote:
otseng wrote:
LittlePig wrote: And I can't think of any reason you would make the comment you made if you weren't suggesting that the find favored your view of a worldwide flood.
Umm, because simply it's a better explanation? And the fact that it's more consistent with the Flood Model doesn't hurt either. ;)
Except, of course, it isn't consistent with a 'Flood Model', since it isn't mixed in with any animals that we know are modern.
Before the rabbits multiply beyond control, I'll just leave my proposal as a rapid burial. Nothing more than that. For this thread, it can just be a giant mud slide.
Since it's still spring time, let's let the rabbits multiply.

Questions for Debate:

1) Does a Global Flood Model provide the best explanation for our current fossil record, geologic formations, and biodiversity?

2) What real science is used in Global Flood Models?

3) What predictions does a Global Flood Model make?

4) Have Global Flood Models ever been subjected to a formal peer review process?
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Post #731

Post by otseng »

nygreenguy wrote:Now, after I keep walking on my steps with snow I start to notice the snow becomes more and more compact. Eventually, it becomes ice. Now, did I change the density of ice? No. I removed the air and spaces in between the snowflakes.

How do you know this isnt what happens to the ice?
Yes, snow becomes ice near the top. But I'm not talking about the density of snow, but ice.

Also, I'm only addressing Scotracer's statement: "Your numbers assume no compression of lower layers due to the pressure from above - which is something we see in reality."

We do see thinner layers in the lower parts of ice cores and so the question is what causes this? And as I've demonstrated, it is not simply the result of compression from the weight of the ice above it.

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Post #732

Post by otseng »

micatala wrote: http://www.gfy.ku.dk/~www-glac/ngrip/pa ... fs/206.pdf

For the record, the ice sheet here is said to go back 123,000 years.
Also for the record, the 123 kyr BP date they gave was not a result from their findings, but a reiteration from earlier works.
The Vedde Ash layer has been identified in a number of areas in Iceland and Norway and even Great Britain. It is dated to over 10,000 years before the present.
This date poses no problem for the FM. But, where it does pose an issue is how can all the layers below it be explained? I've got my own theory on this and still pondering over it.

(Just for my reference:)
It is thought that Katla is the source of the Vedde Ash (tephra dated to 10,600 years BP[1]) found at a number of sites including Norway, Scotland and North Atlantic cores.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katla

2) We see not only annual layers, but also larger scale variations in climate based on the brightness or darkness of the bands.
I'm not so sure they can "see" accurately annual layers. They mention several problems regarding this including subannual layers and variability in layer counts due to different contrast settings.
because some years may experience more
depositional events than others, some annual layers will
appear as multiple visible layers in the VS profile, while
others may only be weakly represented in the stratigraphy.
Inspection of the VS profile, at depths where the annual
layers can be identified from the CFA profiles, shows that
multiple-layer years appear frequently. Another difficulty
is caused by the great variability in intensity of the visible
layers, which complicates the counting. Depending on the
contrast enhancement of the images and on the selection
criteria used for identifying the layers, one can end up
counting a wide range of layers within the same ice core
section, e.g., as the contrast of an image is increased, more
and more layers tend to appear.
3) Visual layers are correlated with many other types of data, including chemical data. FOr example, note the incredible correspondence shown in Figure 4 on page 6 of the Svensson article between the visual stratigraphy and the O18 profile.
There does seem to be an inverse correlation between the two. However, there is also a direct relationship between the dust concentration and stratigraphy intensity. So, it could simply be dust that is causing the O18 profile, rather than attributing it to yearly changes. Also, looking at the charts do not reveal any yearly patterns.
Now, to address otseng's suggestion that scientists cannot tell which layers are annual and which are not, note in this (and other articles) scientists are careful to note how confident they can be the layers are annual and when the layers do not have sufficient integrity to be used for dating.
After reading the article, I'm now under the impression that there is not a standard method to determine annual layers.

The articles cites Shimohara et al as one approach to determine annual layers:
One way to overcome the multiple-layer problem for
annual layer counting is to smooth the intensity profile such
as proposed by Shimohara et al. [2003] in a case study of
10 sections of GRIP and NorthGRIP glacial ice. Although
this approach is promising, the smoothing method assumes
preknowledge of the mean annual layer thickness from
modeling, which may not always be justified. Furthermore,
the number of annual layers that is identified within a
section of ice is likely to vary with the width of the filter
applied for smoothing the profile.
The paper presents a different method to determine annual layers by "applying a frequency analysis to
sections of the VS intensity profile."

Both of these methods do not simply "count" the layers, but require mathematical modeling and for the underlying assumptions to be true. In the Shimohara approach, it "assumes preknowledge of the mean annual layer thickness." In the Svensson approach, a "successful outcome of such a method requires a certain regularity in the annual layer thicknesses within each considered section." It also relies on the ss09sea timescale model.

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Post #733

Post by nygreenguy »

otseng wrote: Yes, snow becomes ice near the top. But I'm not talking about the density of snow, but ice.

Also, I'm only addressing Scotracer's statement: "Your numbers assume no compression of lower layers due to the pressure from above - which is something we see in reality."

We do see thinner layers in the lower parts of ice cores and so the question is what causes this? And as I've demonstrated, it is not simply the result of compression from the weight of the ice above it.
Snow IS ice! Snow is ice crystals!

I told you HOW layers could become thinner as well. Ice doesnt NEED to change density in order to simply become more compact. Air and other impurities could be pushed out. I also said that the ice may have spread out.

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Post #734

Post by nygreenguy »

otseng wrote:
Both of these methods do not simply "count" the layers, but require mathematical modeling and for the underlying assumptions to be true. In the Shimohara approach, it "assumes preknowledge of the mean annual layer thickness." In the Svensson approach, a "successful outcome of such a method requires a certain regularity in the annual layer thicknesses within each considered section." It also relies on the ss09sea timescale model.
Be careful where you tread osteng, you're wandering into the reals of "i know more than the scientists" again.

Let me explain, you are criticizing a methodology for which you dont have the full details and you dont know the theory behind it. If you did this with dendrochronology, I could address it more specifically, but Im not an ice core reader and I wont pretend to be! I dont really understand what/how they do what they do. My point is, be sure you know exactly what your talking about before you criticize.

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Post #735

Post by Scotracer »

otseng wrote:
nygreenguy wrote:Now, after I keep walking on my steps with snow I start to notice the snow becomes more and more compact. Eventually, it becomes ice. Now, did I change the density of ice? No. I removed the air and spaces in between the snowflakes.

How do you know this isnt what happens to the ice?
Yes, snow becomes ice near the top. But I'm not talking about the density of snow, but ice.

Also, I'm only addressing Scotracer's statement: "Your numbers assume no compression of lower layers due to the pressure from above - which is something we see in reality."

We do see thinner layers in the lower parts of ice cores and so the question is what causes this? And as I've demonstrated, it is not simply the result of compression from the weight of the ice above it.
But what you described was a change from liquid water to solid ice with no crystallisation. Snow crystals are something like 92% air and as such can be compressed a huge amount. I mean, just go stand in some freshly fallen snow!
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Post #736

Post by micatala »

nygreenguy wrote:
otseng wrote: Yes, snow becomes ice near the top. But I'm not talking about the density of snow, but ice.

Also, I'm only addressing Scotracer's statement: "Your numbers assume no compression of lower layers due to the pressure from above - which is something we see in reality."

We do see thinner layers in the lower parts of ice cores and so the question is what causes this? And as I've demonstrated, it is not simply the result of compression from the weight of the ice above it.
Snow IS ice! Snow is ice crystals!

I told you HOW layers could become thinner as well. Ice doesnt NEED to change density in order to simply become more compact. Air and other impurities could be pushed out. I also said that the ice may have spread out.
I will also point out I alluded to the possibility of what I termed "extrusion" earlier. A section of ice say 10 square cm at the surface could be taking up 20 square cm at depth.

I will also note that some of the articles specifically describe ice flow. So, as you drill vertically, at depth you could be going through layers where the ice was not originally directly under the location at the surface where you are drilling.
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Post #737

Post by micatala »

otseng wrote:
micatala wrote: http://www.gfy.ku.dk/~www-glac/ngrip/pa ... fs/206.pdf

For the record, the ice sheet here is said to go back 123,000 years.
Also for the record, the 123 kyr BP date they gave was not a result from their findings, but a reiteration from earlier works.
True. But this paper is said to offer strong support for the existing chronology. Thus, we have an even higher confidence in an already well-established dating conclusion.
The Vedde Ash layer has been identified in a number of areas in Iceland and Norway and even Great Britain. It is dated to over 10,000 years before the present.
This date poses no problem for the FM. But, where it does pose an issue is how can all the layers below it be explained? I've got my own theory on this and still pondering over it.
I would agree, the 10,000 BP date does not refute the FM and your dating for the flood is consistent with this one piece of data. However, the Vedde Ash layer does more than simply provide a lower bound on the age of the sheet. Because the dating of this layer is roughly consistent with the date given through the stratigraphy, it provides evidence that the dating mechansims discussed in the paper are valid, at the very least back to that date, and provide evidence that the dating mechanism can be relied on to give reasonable estimates further back into the past.

Furthermore, note that the Vedde layer is in the 2b ice core example which is just over 1500 meters down. This is less than halfway down through the whole core depth. So, we can reasonably assume there are many more years below this depth.

Also, since, as you note, compression or narrowing of layers occurs at lower depths, it is reasonable to suggest that many more years are represented per 100 meters below this point than above.


otseng wrote:
2) We see not only annual layers, but also larger scale variations in climate based on the brightness or darkness of the bands.
I'm not so sure they can "see" accurately annual layers. They mention several problems regarding this including subannual layers and variability in layer counts due to different contrast settings.
because some years may experience more
depositional events than others, some annual layers will
appear as multiple visible layers in the VS profile, while
others may only be weakly represented in the stratigraphy.
Inspection of the VS profile, at depths where the annual
layers can be identified from the CFA profiles, shows that
multiple-layer years appear frequently. Another difficulty
is caused by the great variability in intensity of the visible
layers, which complicates the counting. Depending on the
contrast enhancement of the images and on the selection
criteria used for identifying the layers, one can end up
counting a wide range of layers within the same ice core
section, e.g., as the contrast of an image is increased, more
and more layers tend to appear.
nygreenguy has addressed this already. I have repeatedly stated that visual stratigraphy can be checked by multiple chemical and other methods. Thus, we can determine with some degree of confidence when multiple visual layers might occur. That is the whole strength of using multiple-parameter testing. We don't need to rely on or assume one method always behaves nicely enough to give us precise dating. We use the interplay of methods to do cross-checks so that we can be confident the dating is reliable within certain margins of error.

3) Visual layers are correlated with many other types of data, including chemical data. FOr example, note the incredible correspondence shown in Figure 4 on page 6 of the Svensson article between the visual stratigraphy and the O18 profile.
There does seem to be an inverse correlation between the two. However, there is also a direct relationship between the dust concentration and stratigraphy intensity. So, it could simply be dust that is causing the O18 profile, rather than attributing it to yearly changes. Also, looking at the charts do not reveal any yearly patterns.
We can certainly investigate this more. You are suggesting the correlation could have a cause other than a yearly change. The key would be to determine if the dust cycles also follow a yearly pattern or not. I would expect that this article (and others) would show that all of these phenomenon usually follow a yearly cycle because the physical mechanisms which cause them vary seasonally.

I would agree with the general point underlying the comment that correlation does not equal causation. I would again point out that these other mechanisms can be observed in real time by current scientists so we could check if the layers formed in the last several decades record annual dust and O18 fluctuations.

Note that O18 fluctuations are highly temperature dependent and so temperature is one very strong candidate for a causal factor. Obviously, temperature is also hugely dependent on the annual seasonal changes. Even during a climactically warmer or colder period, we are still very likely to see large temperature changes between summer and winter. These changes are highly likely to produce discernible changes in the oxygen isotope ratios.

Now, to address otseng's suggestion that scientists cannot tell which layers are annual and which are not, note in this (and other articles) scientists are careful to note how confident they can be the layers are annual and when the layers do not have sufficient integrity to be used for dating.
After reading the article, I'm now under the impression that there is not a standard method to determine annual layers.
The point is not to have one standard method that works in all instances and in all cases. The point is that we have a range of methods that can be applied. "Standardization" is not a requisite for accurate science at least in the sense that one must always use the same method to reach a particular conclusion in a particular context.


Some of these methods do employ models which make certain assumptions. If these assumptions are not valid, the method can err. Again, the point is we are not helpless if this happens. We have other means of determining if the methods are in error, at least in many cases. The scientists clearly DO note when the method produces an anomalous result, and attempt to investigate why.
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Post #738

Post by otseng »

nygreenguy wrote: I told you HOW layers could become thinner as well. Ice doesnt NEED to change density in order to simply become more compact. Air and other impurities could be pushed out. I also said that the ice may have spread out.
Scotracer wrote:But what you described was a change from liquid water to solid ice with no crystallisation. Snow crystals are something like 92% air and as such can be compressed a huge amount. I mean, just go stand in some freshly fallen snow!
Looking at a concrete example, in figure a at 1354.65 meters down, it would be ice. Yet, there are no discernable layers in that ice core section. But at 1504.80 m, we see many layers. How can this be explained?
I will also point out I alluded to the possibility of what I termed "extrusion" earlier. A section of ice say 10 square cm at the surface could be taking up 20 square cm at depth.

I will also note that some of the articles specifically describe ice flow.
Yes, thin layers would be a result of ice flow, not simply of weight compression.

Image
"Snow falling on the surface does not stay on the surface, but takes a deeper journey through the ice sheet as it is buried by subsequent snow and is compressed into solid ice. Snow falling in the deepest interior parts of Antarctica can take over 100,000 years to reach the ocean."
http://lima.nasa.gov/antarctica/

Ice/snow is not simply moving laterally (as would be the case in extrusion). We also see in the ice core images that closer to the bottom (particularly g and h), that the layers are irregular. So, ice flow is contributing to this, rather than simply a thinning through extrusion.
So, as you drill vertically, at depth you could be going through layers where the ice was not originally directly under the location at the surface where you are drilling.
I think this is an important point. Because of ice flow, none of the lower layers of ice would have been deposited at the same spot as the ice core sampling. The ice at the bottom of the core would have been deposited a fair distance away from ice at the top of the core. One then cannot say exactly when a lower layer was deposited relative to a higher layer since it was deposited at a different location.

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Post #739

Post by otseng »

nygreenguy wrote: Be careful where you tread osteng, you're wandering into the reals of "i know more than the scientists" again.

Let me explain, you are criticizing a methodology for which you dont have the full details and you dont know the theory behind it. If you did this with dendrochronology, I could address it more specifically, but Im not an ice core reader and I wont pretend to be! I dont really understand what/how they do what they do. My point is, be sure you know exactly what your talking about before you criticize.
You are free to bring out your points in the When to disagree with the experts thread.

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Post #740

Post by nygreenguy »

otseng wrote:
nygreenguy wrote: Be careful where you tread osteng, you're wandering into the reals of "i know more than the scientists" again.

Let me explain, you are criticizing a methodology for which you dont have the full details and you dont know the theory behind it. If you did this with dendrochronology, I could address it more specifically, but Im not an ice core reader and I wont pretend to be! I dont really understand what/how they do what they do. My point is, be sure you know exactly what your talking about before you criticize.
You are free to bring out your points in the When to disagree with the experts thread.
and I have, but Im also going to point out your errors here for those who may not be reading the other thread. People should know when people are pretending to be experts when they really are not.

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