Cosmology and the mediocrity principle

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Cosmology and the mediocrity principle

Post #1

Post by otseng »

The mediocrity principle is the philosophical notion that "if an item is drawn at random from one of several sets or categories, it's likelier to come from the most numerous category than from any one of the less numerous categories" (Kukla 2009).[1] The principle has been taken to suggest that there is nothing very unusual about the evolution of the Solar System, the Earth, humans, or any one nation. It is a heuristic in the vein of the Copernican principle, and is sometimes used as a philosophical statement about the place of humanity. The idea is to assume mediocrity, rather than starting with the assumption that a phenomenon is special, privileged or exceptional.[2][3]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediocrity_principle

Current cosmology assumes that the mediocrity principle is true. Our solar system, the earth, and humans are not special. But, is this assumption true? Why or why not?

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Post #101

Post by FarWanderer »

otseng wrote:
FarWanderer wrote:
otseng wrote:
FarWanderer wrote: The topic of whether matter/energy is infinite has yet to even been discussed before now.
I thought it was a pretty safe assumption to make. Do you believe that matter/energy is infinite?
I don't know. Honestly, I suspect that the dichotomy somehow doesn't even apply. I'm a big fan of Kant's antinomies.
I'm not sure why you then brought up that infinite matter/energy has yet to be discussed.
Because I feel that you are downplaying the assumptions you are making.
otseng wrote:
otseng wrote:Do you also believe that the universe had no beginning? If so, why?
Depends what you mean by "beginning". And what you mean by "universe".
Universe is all material things within our space-time.
Does that include space-time itself? Does that include matter itself, or just material forms in space-time?

Also, I need to know what you mean by "beginning" too.
otseng wrote:
Wikipedia's page on the cosmological principle says so. Under "justification". You can follow the citation link if you like.
You mean this one?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmological_principle

It says:

"In modern physical cosmology, the cosmological principle is an axiom that embodies the working assumption or premise that the distribution of matter in the universe is homogeneous and isotropic when viewed on a large enough scale, since the forces are expected to act uniformly throughout the universe, and should, therefore, produce no observable irregularities in the large scale structuring over the course of evolution of the matter field that was initially laid down by the Big Bang."

It says that homogeneity is an assumption or premise.
I'm pretty sure the page refers to homogeneity as an assumption because it's not wholly falsifiable. Science wishes to apply the cosmological principle to the universe beyond our light-cone, but for that we need to assume the data avaliable (the visible universe) is large enough to be representative of the whole universe.
otseng wrote:The only evidence that it presents is the CMBR. Yes, it is isotropic, but that does not necessarily mean the universe is homogeneous.
Not sure if you just missed it, or just aren't counting it, but that same page, under "Justification", says:
Although the universe can seem inhomogeneous at smaller scales, it is statistically homogeneous on scales larger than 250 million light years.
otseng wrote:
We'd expect that the closer to Earth, the greater the heat and matter density.
How so?
Because that's how spherical expansions work. You've already agreed with me on this at least as far as matter density. That is, unless you've changed your mind about the bizarre sceniario I outlined earlier where matter was sent out from the center in density proportional to its velocity.

Perhaps you don't realize it, but the universe lacking homogeneity doesn't for a second mean that the Earth is at the center. In order for a lack of homogeniety to indicate the Earth is at the center, there would have to be some specific geometric formation for which the Earth is the focal point. The most obvious of these possible formations would be greater density closer to the center of the universe (to Earth).
otseng wrote:
I am disappointed and, to be honest, perturbed. I didn't come here to argue about the mediocrity principle and I believe I made myself absolultey clear about that.
Well, refuting the mediocrity principle was the starting point, which then leads to arguing for the earth being near/at the center of the universe. There's no way to get to that point without arguing about the mediocrity principle. Then I believe it's a reasonable assumption that things in the center would coalesce first before things that are moving away. I can't prove that point, but I don't think it's an unreasonable assumption.
The only reasonable assumptions are those based on reason.
otseng wrote:A word about the origin of heavy elements. I'm not positing that the heavy elements on earth came from a stellar nucleosynthesis. Though it's a possibility that could've happened, there's no evidence that is how heavy elements are found on earth. What evidence is there that our solar system is the result of a supernova explosion? I'm not sure what is the explanation, but since a supernatural force is required to escape a black hole, a supernatural force could also have formed the heavy elements.
This is no better than suggesting that God planted dinasaur fossils for us to find without dinosaurs ever having existed. It's the final impregable inner fortress of natural theology: "God did it".

Disappointing.

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Re: Cosmology and the mediocrity principle

Post #102

Post by otseng »

Divine Insight wrote: Using arguments based on what we "Currently Know" is dishonest when it comes to these deep cosmological questions because we simply don't know the answers to these questions yet. Just because we don't currently know the answers doesn't mean that they answers are what you claim them to be.

IMHO, that whole approach is actually "dishonest" apologetics is what it amounts to.
I want to start with this point because it is foundational to debates.

It is a baseless charge to say that it is dishonest to base arguments on what we currently know. What else can we do by? On what we do not know? Or are we to base things on what we might know? I would say that what we currently know is the only thing that we can go by. If we cannot agree on this, then we can have no productive discussions.

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Post #103

Post by otseng »

FarWanderer wrote:
otseng wrote:
FarWanderer wrote:
otseng wrote:
FarWanderer wrote: The topic of whether matter/energy is infinite has yet to even been discussed before now.
I thought it was a pretty safe assumption to make. Do you believe that matter/energy is infinite?
I don't know. Honestly, I suspect that the dichotomy somehow doesn't even apply. I'm a big fan of Kant's antinomies.
I'm not sure why you then brought up that infinite matter/energy has yet to be discussed.
Because I feel that you are downplaying the assumptions you are making.
If there's no reason to accept a different assumption (infinite matter/energy), how is it downplaying the assumption (finite matter/energy)?
otseng wrote:
otseng wrote:Do you also believe that the universe had no beginning? If so, why?
Depends what you mean by "beginning". And what you mean by "universe".
Universe is all material things within our space-time.
Does that include space-time itself? Does that include matter itself, or just material forms in space-time?

Also, I need to know what you mean by "beginning" too.
I find it very strange that my opponents keep questioning what is the universe and what is the beginning. Perhaps I should qualify it by saying "our universe". Our universe would include our space-time, matter, energy, and anything else that is bound by our space-time. The beginning would be the point where our space-time came into existence.
otseng wrote:
Wikipedia's page on the cosmological principle says so. Under "justification". You can follow the citation link if you like.
You mean this one?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmological_principle

It says:

"In modern physical cosmology, the cosmological principle is an axiom that embodies the working assumption or premise that the distribution of matter in the universe is homogeneous and isotropic when viewed on a large enough scale, since the forces are expected to act uniformly throughout the universe, and should, therefore, produce no observable irregularities in the large scale structuring over the course of evolution of the matter field that was initially laid down by the Big Bang."

It says that homogeneity is an assumption or premise.
I'm pretty sure the page refers to homogeneity as an assumption because it's not wholly falsifiable. Science wishes to apply the cosmological principle to the universe beyond our light-cone, but for that we need to assume the data avaliable (the visible universe) is large enough to be representative of the whole universe.
I would disagree that it's referring to outside our light cone. It says, "should, therefore, produce no observable irregularities in the large scale structuring." If it's observable, it would be in our light cone.
otseng wrote:The only evidence that it presents is the CMBR. Yes, it is isotropic, but that does not necessarily mean the universe is homogeneous.
Not sure if you just missed it, or just aren't counting it, but that same page, under "Justification", says:
Although the universe can seem inhomogeneous at smaller scales, it is statistically homogeneous on scales larger than 250 million light years.
Yes, I saw that claim, but I didn't see any evidence to support that. Whereas, there is evidence (CBMR) to support the claim that it is isotropic.
otseng wrote:
We'd expect that the closer to Earth, the greater the heat and matter density.
How so?
Because that's how spherical expansions work.
If it's a purely naturalistic explanation, matter would not even escape a black hole, so I do not think a purely naturalistic explanation is at play.
Perhaps you don't realize it, but the universe lacking homogeneity doesn't for a second mean that the Earth is at the center.
Actually, I agree. I never said a non-homogeneous universe demonstrates the earth is in the center.

Here is what I claim. If the universe is non-homogeneous, then the only place it would appear to be isotropic is in the center.

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Re: Cosmology and the mediocrity principle

Post #104

Post by Divine Insight »

otseng wrote:
Divine Insight wrote: Using arguments based on what we "Currently Know" is dishonest when it comes to these deep cosmological questions because we simply don't know the answers to these questions yet. Just because we don't currently know the answers doesn't mean that they answers are what you claim them to be.

IMHO, that whole approach is actually "dishonest" apologetics is what it amounts to.
I want to start with this point because it is foundational to debates.

It is a baseless charge to say that it is dishonest to base arguments on what we currently know. What else can we do by? On what we do not know? Or are we to base things on what we might know? I would say that what we currently know is the only thing that we can go by. If we cannot agree on this, then we can have no productive discussions.
You're not acknowledging what I'm saying.

We don't "know" that there is no other life in the universe.

When you say that we "currently know" that there is no other life in the universe that is actually a false claim. We don't know that.

What we "currently know" is that we Don't Know whether there is any other life in the universe.

To claim that because we are ignorant of something we currently know that which we are ignorant of is dishonest.

What we "currently know" is that we can't determine whether there is other life in the universe or not.

It's dishonest to say, imply, or insinuate that "Based on our current knowledge there is no other life in the universe", because we are currently incapable of making that determination. That's a totally dishonest and misleading claim.

We do not possess current knowledge that there is no other life in the universe.
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Post #105

Post by Danmark »

[Replying to post 100 by Divine Insight]
Using arguments based on what we "Currently Know" is dishonest when it comes to these deep cosmological questions because we simply don't know the answers to these questions yet. . . . IMHO, that whole approach is actually "dishonest" apologetics is what it amounts to.
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Post #106

Post by FarWanderer »

otseng wrote:
FarWanderer wrote:
otseng wrote:
FarWanderer wrote:
otseng wrote:
FarWanderer wrote: The topic of whether matter/energy is infinite has yet to even been discussed before now.
I thought it was a pretty safe assumption to make. Do you believe that matter/energy is infinite?
I don't know. Honestly, I suspect that the dichotomy somehow doesn't even apply. I'm a big fan of Kant's antinomies.
I'm not sure why you then brought up that infinite matter/energy has yet to be discussed.
Because I feel that you are downplaying the assumptions you are making.
If there's no reason to accept a different assumption (infinite matter/energy), how is it downplaying the assumption (finite matter/energy)?
That's not it. "Downplaying" is a referrence to the way you frame things. It's about style, not content.

But since you seem to be making an argument here, I'll address it. Your implied argument, that "no reason to accept not A" makes for "reason to accept A", is fallacious. It's ignores the possibility of "no reason to accept not A" and "no reason to accept A" as both being true.

In more layman terms, here's an example: there's no reason for you to believe the last person I spoke with was male, so does that make it reasonable to assume the last person I spoke with was female (not male)?
otseng wrote:
otseng wrote:
otseng wrote:Do you also believe that the universe had no beginning? If so, why?
Depends what you mean by "beginning". And what you mean by "universe".
Universe is all material things within our space-time.
Does that include space-time itself? Does that include matter itself, or just material forms in space-time?

Also, I need to know what you mean by "beginning" too.
I find it very strange that my opponents keep questioning what is the universe and what is the beginning.
It's because fallacies of equivocation with these words are horrendously endemic.
otseng wrote:Perhaps I should qualify it by saying "our universe". Our universe would include our space-time, matter, energy, and anything else that is bound by our space-time. The beginning would be the point where our space-time came into existence.
OK, that is a very well-encompassing definiton for "universe". However, I need specific criteria to distinguish whether something is "bound to our space-time" or not. For example, when considering the additional dimensions proposed by String Theory, are these dimensions part of the universe, or is the universe part of them?

And as for this "point" you refer to as "the beginning", it is a point in time, correct? Is this point in time bound by our universe, or are you positing an extra-universal dimension of time?
otseng wrote:
otseng wrote:
Wikipedia's page on the cosmological principle says so. Under "justification". You can follow the citation link if you like.
You mean this one?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmological_principle

It says:

"In modern physical cosmology, the cosmological principle is an axiom that embodies the working assumption or premise that the distribution of matter in the universe is homogeneous and isotropic when viewed on a large enough scale, since the forces are expected to act uniformly throughout the universe, and should, therefore, produce no observable irregularities in the large scale structuring over the course of evolution of the matter field that was initially laid down by the Big Bang."

It says that homogeneity is an assumption or premise.
I'm pretty sure the page refers to homogeneity as an assumption because it's not wholly falsifiable. Science wishes to apply the cosmological principle to the universe beyond our light-cone, but for that we need to assume the data avaliable (the visible universe) is large enough to be representative of the whole universe.
I would disagree that it's referring to outside our light cone. It says, "should, therefore, produce no observable irregularities in the large scale structuring." If it's observable, it would be in our light cone.
We're talking about the structure of the whole universe, which includes our light cone. Your quote is referring to how homogeneity is falsifiable insofar as we are able to map things in our area of view (which is an ongoing process, but so far the results are in line with what the cosomological principle predicts).

The assumption that the cosmological principle makes about homogeneity is that our light cone is a large enough sample to represent the greater universe. The problem is that even if we studied every inch of the visible universe, we'd still have no way to know that our entire visible universe doesn't exist in some kind of unique super-cosmic "air bubble" or "knot" or who-knows-what; in which case the rest of the greater universe would have a drastically different celestial landscape from ours and we'd never know it.
otseng wrote:
otseng wrote:The only evidence that it presents is the CMBR. Yes, it is isotropic, but that does not necessarily mean the universe is homogeneous.
Not sure if you just missed it, or just aren't counting it, but that same page, under "Justification", says:
Although the universe can seem inhomogeneous at smaller scales, it is statistically homogeneous on scales larger than 250 million light years.
Yes, I saw that claim, but I didn't see any evidence to support that. Whereas, there is evidence (CBMR) to support the claim that it is isotropic.
That's what the bibliography is for.

Here, I'll make it extra convenient for you. This is the article Wikipedia links to support the claim in question:

http://www.gizmag.com/universe-homogene ... ars/24149/
otseng wrote:
otseng wrote:
We'd expect that the closer to Earth, the greater the heat and matter density.
How so?
Because that's how spherical expansions work.
If it's a purely naturalistic explanation, matter would not even escape a black hole, so I do not think a purely naturalistic explanation is at play.
This is assuming that General Relativity is the be-all-end-all complete explanation about how nature works. No scientist believes that. Not even Einstein himself did. In fact, the only area in which you will ever find people who think that science has a complete understanding of how the natural world works is in apologetics.
otseng wrote:
Perhaps you don't realize it, but the universe lacking homogeneity doesn't for a second mean that the Earth is at the center.
Actually, I agree. I never said a non-homogeneous universe demonstrates the earth is in the center.

Here is what I claim. If the universe is non-homogeneous, then the only place it would appear to be isotropic is in the center.
I have absolutely no idea how you might justifiy this claim, especially in light of how we've already established that all points in the universe would appear isotropic with regard to redshift even assuming there were a center.

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Re: Cosmology and the mediocrity principle

Post #107

Post by otseng »

Divine Insight wrote: It's dishonest to say, imply, or insinuate that "Based on our current knowledge there is no other life in the universe", because we are currently incapable of making that determination. That's a totally dishonest and misleading claim.
There is nothing dishonest about the statement, "based on our current knowledge, there is no other (sentient) life in the universe." Now, it's entirely possible that in the future we actually do have evidence of extra-terrestrial life from the SETI program (or any equivalent program). But, we've been trying to find evidence, and none has been found. We can tentatively conclude that none exist based on not finding any evidence.

What if I likewise claim that it is dishonest for atheists to claim that god does not exist? Would that be acceptable? They claim that they've been seeking for evidence but none exist. Can I just retort that they're just making a dishonest statement?

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Re: Cosmology and the mediocrity principle

Post #108

Post by FarWanderer »

[Replying to otseng]

You're trying to have it both ways. If absense of evidence is evidence of absense for aliens, then it's the same for God.

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Post #109

Post by otseng »

FarWanderer wrote: But since you seem to be making an argument here, I'll address it. Your implied argument, that "no reason to accept not A" makes for "reason to accept A", is fallacious. It's ignores the possibility of "no reason to accept not A" and "no reason to accept A" as both being true.
Here are some arguments to support finite matter/energy:
- If the universe is finite in age, then it could not have produced infinite matter/energy.
- If the universe has infinite matter/energy, then it would have infinite size.
- Since the universe is finite in age and not infinite in size, then the universe has finite matter/energy.
However, I need specific criteria to distinguish whether something is "bound to our space-time" or not. For example, when considering the additional dimensions proposed by String Theory, are these dimensions part of the universe, or is the universe part of them?
The additional dimensions of string theory would not be part of our universe according to my definition.

Do you offer another definition of universe?
And as for this "point" you refer to as "the beginning", it is a point in time, correct? Is this point in time bound by our universe, or are you positing an extra-universal dimension of time?
I'm not positing an extra-dimensional time. It would be T0 in our space-time.
The problem is that even if we studied every inch of the visible universe, we'd still have no way to know that our entire visible universe doesn't exist in some kind of unique super-cosmic "air bubble" or "knot" or who-knows-what; in which case the rest of the greater universe would have a drastically different celestial landscape from ours and we'd never know it.
There's no way even in principle to find out what is exactly outside our light cone. We cannot observe it. We cannot detect it. Who then can say if it's homogeneous or not outside our light cone? I would say it doesn't really matter and it does not apply to the discussions.
That's an interesting article.

Some points about the claim that the universe is homogeneous...

It points out that the data used for their study was only 1% of the sky.

"The data does not cover the entire sky, rather being restricted to less than 1 percent thereof, a patch measuring thirty by thirty degrees."

Sampling 1% does not demonstrate it's true for the whole.

Looking at the paper itself, the study acknowledges that it indirectly assumes homogeneity.

"Certain parts of our analysis require the assumption of a cosmological model and, implicitly, homogeneity." (pg 3)

This would be begging the question.

But I would agree with the final paragraph of the article:

"Further work is clearly required to fully pin down this result. In the future researchers will cover more of the sky at larger distances, and thereby reach a final resolution of the validity of the Cosmological principle. But this study is the first serious step toward that resolution."
In fact, the only area in which you will ever find people who think that science has a complete understanding of how the natural world works is in apologetics.
Really? I find that to be quite an ironic statement.
Here is what I claim. If the universe is non-homogeneous, then the only place it would appear to be isotropic is in the center.
I have absolutely no idea how you might justifiy this claim, especially in light of how we've already established that all points in the universe would appear isotropic with regard to redshift even assuming there were a center.
If the edge of the universe was within our light cone, then it would appear darker towards that side. Of course, this assumes the actual universe is not much larger than our observable universe, which we can debate next.

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Re: Cosmology and the mediocrity principle

Post #110

Post by otseng »

FarWanderer wrote: [Replying to otseng]

You're trying to have it both ways. If absense of evidence is evidence of absense for aliens, then it's the same for God.
I never said that there was no evidence for God though. I only said that atheists claim that there is no evidence for God. So, it would be atheists that would have it both ways.

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