Why is the hypothesis of ET "highly improbable"?

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Why is the hypothesis of ET "highly improbable"?

Post #1

Post by William »

From "The fabrication of Jesus." thread, this;

[Replying to post 41 by historia]
But, just because we can't be certain, doesn't mean that all hypothesis are equally probable. It's possible that Jesus was an alien who visited earth, but that hypothesis is highly improbable.
Recently I created a thread called "The Abrahamic religious beliefs taken literally" with the sub-heading "The explanation which involves science rather than magic" in the Members Only Chat forum.

The thread has attracted no interest from Christians on this site and derisive comments from one atheist, with the observation;
You're certainly not going to convince any religious people because they have no desire to start believing in aliens instead of a "God". Not only that but their first question to you would no doubt be "Who created the aliens?".
post 4 by Divine Insight, which in part answers why Christians are loath to broach the subject or get into any significant discussion regarding it.

However, to state that the hypothesis is 'highly improbable' does require explanation.

As far as I am concerned, this hypothesis is still very much on the table and as such, does indeed require serious consideration.

Questions for debate.

1: Is the hypothesis of ET highly improbable because it threatens the beliefs of the Abrahamic Organised Religions?

2: Because it defies the known laws of physics?

3: Or perhaps other reasons I may have overlooked?

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Re: Why is the hypothesis of ET "highly improbable"

Post #21

Post by William »

[Replying to post 15 by bjs]
Let us assume that our understanding of physics is more or less close to correct and that these aliens are not omnipotent.
Rather - lets assume that they know far more than we do. But yes, lets also agree that they are not know all's.
If the aliens are omnipotent then they are God. If the aliens are omnipotent then, as 1213 may have been hinting at, then we are just referring to God and call Him an ET. A rose by any other name and all that rot. Good so far?
This is simply one particular idea that say's "in order to be a GOD, one has to be omnipotent."
Clearly the biblical stories paint a different picture, even given that this has morphed - particularly through the Christian religion - into a being who 'knows everything'.
We need to at least agree that from biblical accounts, the GOD in question does not 'know everything' and certainly Christian theologies attempts at explaining the inconsistencies fall short of the mark.
If so, then it is highly improbably that Jesus was an alien from another planet because:

1. The closest planet outside our solar system is two light years away. Only partials with zero mass can travel at light speed, and traveling faster than that is theoretically impossible. Assuming these aliens have some mass then they must be traveling considerably slower than light speed. Given the limitations of propulsion and distance between stars, it is highly improbable that any race, no matter how advanced, will ever travel between the stars.

Compare this idea with traveling to the moon. Once it was understood what the moon is " that is, a large rock orbiting the earth " then it was understood that travel to the moon was theoretically plausible. People did not know how such a task could be performed or even what obstacles needed to be overcome, but it that task was at least possible. In contrast, once it was understood what stars are then it was quickly understood that travel to others stars is not theoretically plausible. We do understand what obstacles there are and, assuming our current science is close to correct, those obstacles cannot be overcome.
Not improbable at all. The idea is not to send biological critters into deep space, for precisely the reasons you point out. This does not mean that it can't be done in other ways.
For example, a biological species can design AI ships and send them in many directions, and even place biological 'seed' on those ships. Those ships can bring biological life forms into existence in laboratory settings, as and when required.

Also, there is no particular hurry. There is no necessity to go hurtling through the Galaxy at a tremendous rate of knots. :) Slowly and surely is the better option. After all there is plenty of time in which to do things.

The ships themselves could contain bots which can also be useful for mining in order to increase the ships size. Many things can be accomplished in the journey from 'A' to 'B'. Sensibly, there is no requirement to hurry.
2. If somehow an alien could arrive on earth, it would have evolved in a completely different way that humans did...
Not likely. As said, a biological being cannot traverse space and survive the journey. However and AI ship can. And once within the general proximity to its target planet, the AI ship can raise biological beings from the seed it carries and can also be the very being which parents/teaches those beings everything they need to know re the mission etc.
It is highly improbably that this alien would look remotely human or have any knowledge of human language or interaction that would allow it to pass in human society.
There is no saying that should it be the case, or that some biological form cannot be created which would assist in overcoming these minor problems. Language itself may well be mathematically based anyway, so it is not beyond the realms of possibility that designing the appropriate biological instrument would be easy enough to accomplish in order to overcome these types of perceived barriers, should they exist as you assert.
Unless we think of that alien as omnipotent (i.e. the alien is literally God), it is improbable that it would have any technology or technique to blend into human society.
Well hopefully you might be able to see now that one doesn't have to be omnipotent in order to accomplish ways around such problems.
3. It is highly improbably that this alien would travel all this distance, blend into human form and society, all to create a false religion. The entire exercise seems pointless. It would mean that this alien not only choose to interact with people while intentionally lying to them, but also specifically set up a new religion knowing that this religion was false. At this point we pass being improbable and the idea become outright ludicrous.
Here we reach a point where you are conflating an idea with another idea without taking known human propensity to bend and twist things to suit a political agenda. This is of course - not entirely your fault as those representing Abrahamic religions are often the first that one entrusts to be truthfully representing said religions.

However, it can be pointed out in many places in the biblical writ, where the GOD idea of the bible is seriously against being misrepresented whilst at the same time resigned to the fact that humans will continue to do this.

Indeed, it can be observed that a good part of Yeshua's teachings had to do with this very thing.
Things start off one way and morph into completely different and often contradictory ways as conflation of cultures and religions, politics and agendas are added to the mix.

One can indeed read the bible in such a manner as to understand that the GOD in question was never trying to 'create a false religion' but rather, was trying to show humans where their ideas of GODs had gone way off track - attempted to correct the problem, and steer humans towards a more convivial idea of GOD which promoted the survival and prosperity of the human species to a point where they had the best chances of actually making it rather than destroying themselves.

In relation to ET agenda, this would most certainly involve getting humans up to speed in order that we as a species would come to a point of understanding our true circumstances and develop the technology which would enable us to fit into and support that agenda, which - in a nut shell - is to create AI mother-ships, place the seed of our planet into those ships and send them out into the Galaxy at an orderly pace. Rinse and repeat.

The challenge for the ET in relation to that agenda has been to create paths around the obstacles which certain types of human beings have purposefully placed in the way.

The pattern is there in the evidence. Yeshua planted a seed - and he also knew that there would be ferocious opposition to that from the sector of human society which saw the greatest threat to their positions therein and these would develop intricate ways in which to counter that agenda, including formulation of a false religion. So no - it was not the ET who create the false religions, but the humans who resist the changes necessary to have happen in order for the ET agenda to take precedence.

Nevertheless, whilst there was a concerted effort to infiltrate and falsify this new thing Yeshua planted into the minds of humans, at the same time the ET were also infiltrating the very thing which was creating the falseness, because with their clearer foresight and higher ground position, they understood the falseness to being useful as part of the solution rather than simply just a problem.

The main thing in all of this is that the ET had to keep hidden and it had to look - by and large - solely a Human effort - because this is the nature of human consciousness. It has to be seen to be the one doing the job, all by itself, without any help thank you very much. So the help is largely done behinds the scenes.

But not just for that reason. The ET forms (when they aren't wearing costumes) creates horror in humans. So much so that humans could drop dead at the sight of them... and in that, human myths regarding demons etc are bought to the fore and this simply complicates things.

But above all, the ET are not interested in playing the role of GOD to the extent which humans demand. They are not 'skydaddies' intent on giving into the demands of spoilt children who think they should be rewarded with easy lives and everything handed to them on a silver platter. That is simply not how things work in the real universe.

So, while there is plenty of wiggle room allowed for human development, it is not to the point where the ET agenda could be seriously compromised.
Thus we fight our wars, muck with our politics and cultures and religious beliefs, and distracting ourselves in the human drama and do all this with or without any 'GOD' idea propelling us forward in supporting these things. We have already reached the point where the ET agenda has been fulfilled sufficiently that we are more likely to be a species who supports and contributed to that agenda rather than completely snuff ourselves out of existence, so nothing of any importance is lost in the overall time and effort involved.

Of course one can argue that we are on the very brink of self annihilation as a species, what with global warming, rampant consumerism, weapons of mass destruction etc et al...and that would be a fair enough argument, but while this might be the fate of most of us (and who can we the majority truly blame for that but ourselves yes?) there will be a remnant of humanity who have the technological capabilities to survive such a fate and use that opportunity to continue with the agenda durng such crisis as well as once the smoke clears.

On that note, perhaps many Christians might argue "Noooooooo!!!!" because they are believing that Jesus will return and save us all from such evil, even that we all partook of making it so, because well - they believe that they deserve to be saved from that and that we were forced into supporting such a destructive pathway because 'the atheist antichrist' but that may be part of the false religion giving people hope in a 'supernatural' intervention in order to pacify them into submitting to the human masters, and well - that will just have to be one of the main lessons we all learn from it all. Life goes on, even after death.

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Post #22

Post by William »

[Replying to post 18 by rikuoamero]

Fair enough rikuoamero. It is a minor point and I cannot at this time recall any biblical stories where such a thing was the case anyway. I was simply pointing out that we cannot assume that a very advanced species wouldn't have such technology.

The Story of the Garden of End is one example where the supposed GOD spoke as 'a voice in the garden' but this in itself doesn't necessarily imply that any invisibility device was being used. The Garden may have been on the AI ship and it may have been the ships intercom system being utilized to that task.

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Re: Why is the hypothesis of ET "highly improbable"

Post #23

Post by marco »

bjs wrote:


So on the whole it is improbably that Jesus (or any other human being in history) was an alien from another planet.
Here's part of a paper from a modern astrophysicist on travel to the corners of the universe. I cannot find the paper where a figure of 50 odd years was mentioned for a one-way trip, but this gives an inkling that we cannot dismiss space travel altogether.

"However, calculating the rocket trajectory in detail shows that a rocketeer could nearly reach such galaxies within a lifetime (a long lifetime admittedly -- about 100 years). For less negative values of w the maximal redshift increases becoming infinite for w1/3 . "

So, as you say, what is possible may become fact with the right know-how, and who knows what know-how bigger and better aliens may have.

At the end of the day is it better to accept a god put on human form and worked here or a being from another galaxy taught us some truths and headed home?

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Re: Why is the hypothesis of ET "highly improbable"

Post #24

Post by rikuoamero »

[Replying to post 23 by marco]
"However, calculating the rocket trajectory in detail shows that a rocketeer could nearly reach such galaxies within a lifetime (a long lifetime admittedly -- about 100 years).
A rocket...reaching galaxies...in about a hundred years?

Uhh...marco...our nearest galactic neighbour is Andromeda and that's about 2 million light years away. That's two million years travel at light speed. Something that cannot be done with rockets.
At the end of the day is it better to accept a god put on human form and worked here or a being from another galaxy taught us some truths and headed home?
Either way, we'd need an explanation for how he did it. Simply saying "Goddidit" or "ETdidit" is not satisfactory.
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Re: Why is the hypothesis of ET "highly improbable"

Post #25

Post by bjs »

marco wrote:
bjs wrote: So on the whole it is improbably that Jesus (or any other human being in history) was an alien from another planet.
Here's part of a paper from a modern astrophysicist on travel to the corners of the universe. I cannot find the paper where a figure of 50 odd years was mentioned for a one-way trip, but this gives an inkling that we cannot dismiss space travel altogether.

"However, calculating the rocket trajectory in detail shows that a rocketeer could nearly reach such galaxies within a lifetime (a long lifetime admittedly -- about 100 years). For less negative values of w the maximal redshift increases becoming infinite for w1/3 . "

So, as you say, what is possible may become fact with the right know-how, and who knows what know-how bigger and better aliens may have.

At the end of the day is it better to accept a god put on human form and worked here or a being from another galaxy taught us some truths and headed home?
Alpha Centauri, the closest start to us, is 25 trillion miles away (4.3 light-years). New Horizons, the fastest spacecraft humans have created, travels at over 36,000 miles per hour.

It would take New Horizons 78,000 years to reach Alpha Centauri.

That is just traveling to the nearest star, to say nothing of the nearest galaxy.

The idea that a rocket could travel to another galaxy in 100 years is doubtful to say the least.

http://earthsky.org/space/alpha-centauri-travel-time
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Post #26

Post by bjs »

[Replying to post 17 by rikuoamero]

I think that you have already figured out what my answer is, but I will say it anyway: No, unless we are saying that this ET is literally God I do not think it is reasonable to suggest that a traveler from another planet has visited earth.
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Post #27

Post by rikuoamero »

bjs wrote: [Replying to post 17 by rikuoamero]

I think that you have already figured out what my answer is, but I will say it anyway: No, unless we are saying that this ET is literally God I do not think it is reasonable to suggest that a traveler from another planet has visited earth.
Okay...so how did God resurrect Jesus?
If you are a person who wouldn't be satisfied with being told aliens visited Earth using an FTL drive that has no explanation...
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Re: Why is the hypothesis of ET "highly improbable"

Post #28

Post by William »

[Replying to post 24 by rikuoamero]
Either way, we'd need an explanation for how he did it. Simply saying "Goddidit" or "ETdidit" is not satisfactory.
I gave a reasonable explanation in post #21 on how traversing vast distances could be achieved.
bjs wrote: [Replying to post 17 by rikuoamero]

I think that you have already figured out what my answer is, but I will say it anyway: No, unless we are saying that this ET is literally God I do not think it is reasonable to suggest that a traveler from another planet has visited earth.
However, my post #21 in answer to your first post gave good reasons why it is indeed feasible, and thus reasonable.

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Re: Why is the hypothesis of ET "highly improbable"

Post #29

Post by marco »

bjs wrote:

Alpha Centauri, the closest start to us, is 25 trillion miles away (4.3 light-years). New Horizons, the fastest spacecraft humans have created, travels at over 36,000 miles per hour.

It would take New Horizons 78,000 years to reach Alpha Centauri.

That is just traveling to the nearest star, to say nothing of the nearest galaxy.

The idea that a rocket could travel to another galaxy in 100 years is doubtful to say the least.

http://earthsky.org/space/alpha-centauri-travel-time
Yes, this is from the relative point of view of someone on earth. It works differently for the traveller at high speeds; distance covered for them changes exponentially. If you want to examine the physics and mathematics behind the calculations and explanations, by a top astrophysicist, here is the reference. Good luck.

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... ace_Travel

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Re: Why is the hypothesis of ET "highly improbable"

Post #30

Post by marco »

rikuoamero wrote:

Uhh...marco...our nearest galactic neighbour is Andromeda and that's about 2 million light years away. That's two million years travel at light speed. Something that cannot be done with rockets.

That was my reaction too. But I defer to people whose life work is in relativity and black hole theory. Take a look at the equations - and I am a mathematician - and then ponder the depth of theoretical knowledge that goes into them. I don't think we are dealing with conventional travel, simply with what is theoretically possible.

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... ace_Travel

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