Guy Threepwood wrote:What is the probability that the waves produced 'HELP'?
Since it's possible that waves may create a pattern like HELP among rocks, then the probability is greater than zero, but that's about all I can say about the probability of wave motion creating the letters HELP with rocks.
i.e. it's not that spelling HELP is any less probable than any particular random pattern.. it's that the coded meaning implies a less improbable explanation - ID
The ID people here are assuming that there is intentional meaning in the rock formation, but we don't know that if there is intentional meaning in those rocks. Since there can only be intentional meaning as a result of something that has an intention, like an intelligent agent, the ID people are assuming what they are trying to prove.
Similarly 4 royal flushes in a row, is no less likely than any particular sequence of 20 cards is it?, but if it happens we know someone is probably cheating- because the specific outcome provides a potential motive and hence a far LESS improbable explanation- unless we can utterly rule cheating out- which we cannot
Why not just leave the four flushes to chance? It's possible that your cards came up that way. I'd only assume that somebody is cheating if I had some reason to think somebody is messing with the deck of cards. Getting an improbable hand of cards is not sufficient evidence to conclude that cheating is taking place.
so simply ask yourself how certain you have to be, that no ID could possibly be involved, before you would be forced to conclude the waves washed up "HELP' and the 4 royal flushes were a fluke?
Well, maybe you should tell me how improbable an event needs to be to assume chance cannot explain that event. Would you assume chance cannot explain an event occurring that has a probability of one half? How about a probability of one out of one hundred? One out of a million?
I hope you see where I'm going with this line of reasoning. The ID people, as far as I know, never specify where they think chance must end and purposeful intention must begin. Whatever the "cut off" probability might be, they would need to explain why anything less probable cannot be explained by chance.
In any case, Dawkins discusses how the structure we see in nature is not all left to chance but is a result of natural selection which is the very opposite of chance. So the ID people are beating on a straw-man when they suggest that science relies on chance alone to explain the form of living things.
Both examples are selling the universe extremely short, so are you at least this convinced that God cannot possibly exist?
Well, I suppose the god you believe in might be hidden away some place, but the same might be said for the Easter Bunny. But both the Bible god and the Easter Bunny, as the products of human imagination, cannot create universes. So it looks very obvious that any god or Easter Bunny does not exist outside of human imagination.
But are you convinced Thor doesn't exist? Your doubt about all gods except your own is the same as my doubt about your god.
After all by your own logic, our universe, ourselves, and hence the phenomena of creative intelligence- follows 'naturally' from quantum mechanics... yet you know of some restriction that prevents this system creating other intelligent beings beyond what we are aware of?
I never gave it much thought. Are you asking me to ponder if the principles of quantum mechanics can result in gods?
Well again I agree with Dawkins and Gates on this one, DNA absolutely represents a symbolic digital code, uncannily similar to our own digital software systems, just in a different medium- we use lots of different mediums also.
I see nothing mystical about people doing what works in nature. If people build shelters, do you conclude that caves must be intelligently designed because they work as shelters?
To sum up this post, I see that the fallacy in much of your reasoning is that you don't consider natural selection but misrepresent evolution as happening as a result of chance only. If chance cannot presumably explain something, then try natural selection. You'll be amazed at how well natural explanation explains the diversity of life and even nonliving things. No gods required!