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Replying to Zzyzx]
We cant say for certain. Africanus was the first to write about the date of Jesus birth, at least of the surviving documents. He seemed to use theological, as opposed to historical, reasoning. This is not to say that he didnt have historical evidence, but it wasnt the focus of his writing.
I have heard it said that scholars have established the Jesus was born in the Spring, the Summer, and the Fall, as well as the traditional date in December.
Either the traditional date or sometime in fall, probably mid-October, seem to be the strongest arguments to me. None of the arguments are indisputable, and it would not particularly bother me to find out that I am wrong about the date.
Understand that you might believe. Believe that you might understand. –Augustine of Hippo