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Replying to post 50 by Mithrae]
While the solstice itself may have been a positive factor encouraging Christians to accept that as a good time to celebrate the nativity, odds are that pagan celebrations on particular dates around that time would have had a drag factor (at least throughout the 3rd and early 4th centuries, if my comments to JW are reasonable).
We're getting right into speculation here, with talk of "odds" and such.
Good.
Allow me to speculate that indigenous celebrations would NOT have been a drag at all.
We seem to be generally agreed that Winter Solstice celebrations and birthday bashes were around for some millennia before the possibly fictional Jesus character supposedly burst out through the hymen of the BVM.
Imagine though today that the Raelians (
https://www.rael.org/home) were granted the monopoly on religion - just like Christians were.
Imagine the furore and logistical nightmare of changing the long-standing public holiday dates of Easter and Thanksgiving and Christmas and such …!
I bet the odds are that the Jesus monopolists just rebadged the same old public holidays.
It's a very simple, easy, drag-free explanation/speculation.
Any suggestion that Christians were the first folks EVER to figure that the Winter Solstice was a GREAT time for a religious public holiday ..
and to hold that public holiday in honour of their Divine Leader whose propagandists didn't even hint at such a thing …
has the odds stacked against it.
In my opinionated speculation.