The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

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The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #1

Post by bluegreenearth »

Here is how wikipedia describes falsifiability:
Informally, a statement is falsifiable if some observation might show it to be false. For example, "All swans are white" is falsifiable because "Here is a black swan" shows it to be false. Formally, it is the same, except that the observations used to prove falsifiability are only logical constructions distinct from those that are truly possible.

Falsifiability differs from verifiability, which was held as fundamental by many philosophers such as those of the Vienna Circle. In order to verify the claim "All swans are white" one would have to observe every swan, which is not possible, whereas the single observation "Here is a black swan" is sufficient to falsify it.

It was introduced by the philosopher of science Karl Popper in his book The Logic of Scientific Discovery (1934), as an answer to both the Problem of Induction and the Demarcation Problem. He saw falsifiability as the cornerstone of critical rationalism, his theory of science.

As a key notion in the separation of science from non-science, it has featured prominently in many scientific controversies and applications, even being used as legal precedent.
Popper noticed that two types of statements are of particular value to scientists. The first are statements of observations, such as 'this is a white swan'. Logicians describe such statements in terms of existential quantification, since they assert the existence of some particular thing. For Popper, such statements form the empirical basis of scientific theory. The second type of statement of interest to scientists categorizes all instances of something, for example "All swans are white". Logicians describe these in terms of universal quantification.

One of the questions in Scientific method is: how does one move from observations to laws? From an existential statement to a universal statement? This is the problem of induction. Suppose we want to put the theory that all swans are white to the test. We come across a white swan. We cannot validly argue from "here is a white swan" to "all swans are white"; doing so would be to affirm the consequent.

Popper's solution to this problem is to flip it upside down. He noticed that while it is impossible to verify that every swan is white, finding a single black swan shows that not every swan is white. We might tentatively accept the proposal that every swan is white, while looking out for examples of non-white swans that would show our conjecture to be false. This is the basis of critical rationalism.

Falsification uses the valid inference modus tollens: if from a statement P (say some law with some initial condition) we logically deduce Q, but what is observed is neg Q, P is false. For example, given the law "all swans are white" and the initial condition "there is a swan here", we can deduce "the swan here is white", but if what is observed is "the swan here is not white" (say black), then "all swans are white" is false, or it was not a swan.
Questions to be considered and debated:

1) Did the method by which a specified theistic belief was acquired adhere to the principle of falsifiability as described above?

2) If the method of theistic belief formation did not adhere to the principle of falsifiability, what other accessible and logical mechanism would demonstrate if a specified theistic belief is false?

3) When there is no accessible and logical mechanism for determining if a specified theistic belief is false, what is the justification for acquiring and defending this belief given that it places the representative apologists in the impossible position of never having an ability to determine if the belief is mistaken?

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Re: The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

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Post by Purple Knight »

bluegreenearth wrote:Demonstrating the reliability of an unfalsifiable belief given the apparent impossibility of ever having a way to determine if the belief is mistaken would falsify the claim that falsifiability is necessary for the formation of a demonstrably reliable belief.
To be fair, 1213 just did this. The belief that swans exist is not falsifiable. It is a reliable belief.

Image

Clearly, a demonstrably reliable belief can be formed by observation without falsification, as long as one still relies upon evidence.

The belief that some swans can shoot fireballs is likewise not technically falsifiable, but a good rule of thumb is still to rely on evidence.

The belief that some swans can shoot fireballs can be confirmed, but not falsified. So I will look for a reasonable amount of time (yes, this is a judgment call) and if I can't confirm it, I will say that swans probably can't shoot fireballs. If I happen to want to go above and beyond, I'll dissect some animals that can shoot fireballs and some swans, and if I can't find any sort of structure analogous to the draconis fundamentum (third lung) or any method of producing fire, I'll likewise say it's probably not true.

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Re: The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #22

Post by bluegreenearth »

Purple Knight wrote:
bluegreenearth wrote:Demonstrating the reliability of an unfalsifiable belief given the apparent impossibility of ever having a way to determine if the belief is mistaken would falsify the claim that falsifiability is necessary for the formation of a demonstrably reliable belief.
To be fair, 1213 just did this. The belief that swans exist is not falsifiable. It is a reliable belief.

Image

Clearly, a demonstrably reliable belief can be formed by observation without falsification, as long as one still relies upon evidence.

The belief that some swans can shoot fireballs is likewise not technically falsifiable, but a good rule of thumb is still to rely on evidence.

The belief that some swans can shoot fireballs can be confirmed, but not falsified. So I will look for a reasonable amount of time (yes, this is a judgment call) and if I can't confirm it, I will say that swans probably can't shoot fireballs. If I happen to want to go above and beyond, I'll dissect some animals that can shoot fireballs and some swans, and if I can't find any sort of structure analogous to the draconis fundamentum (third lung) or any method of producing fire, I'll likewise say it's probably not true.
The claim, "swans exist," does not qualify as an unfalsifiable belief because it is describing a direct observation. By definition, an unfalsifiable belief is a claim for which no observations exist but no observations could ever disconfirm its truth value. If there were no direct observations of swans, then the claim would be an unfalsifiable belief because no observations could ever disprove it despite there being no observations of swans.

The claim, "some swans can shoot fireballs," is an unfalsifiable belief because there are no direct observations of any swans shooting fireballs but no observation will ever disprove it. Meanwhile, the claim that swans do not shoot fireballs is a more reliable belief because it could be falsified by the existence of one swan that can shoot fireballs.

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Re: The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #23

Post by 1213 »

bluegreenearth wrote:…The claim, "swans exist," does not qualify as an unfalsifiable belief because it is describing a direct observation. By definition, an unfalsifiable belief is a claim for which no observations exist but no observations could ever disconfirm its truth value. If there were no direct observations of swans, then the claim would be an unfalsifiable belief because no observations could ever disprove it despite there being no observations of swans….
Ok, I can accept that it is unfalsifiable, but does that then mean the claim “swans exist� is wrong and untrue, if one cannot falsify or disprove it?
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Re: The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #24

Post by bluegreenearth »

1213 wrote:
bluegreenearth wrote:…The claim, "swans exist," does not qualify as an unfalsifiable belief because it is describing a direct observation. By definition, an unfalsifiable belief is a claim for which no observations exist but no observations could ever disconfirm its truth value. If there were no direct observations of swans, then the claim would be an unfalsifiable belief because no observations could ever disprove it despite there being no observations of swans….
Ok, I can accept that it is unfalsifiable, but does that then mean the claim “swans exist� is wrong and untrue, if one cannot falsify or disprove it?
No. I don't recall claiming that unfalsifiable beliefs are wrong and untrue. If it can be demonstrated that a belief is wrong or untrue, then it is not unfalsifiable.

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Re: The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #25

Post by Aetixintro »

[Replying to post 1 by bluegreenearth]

Let's say I need God in my life in order to have meaning, that is, so that my life has meaning by God and Heaven and all that. I sense that this conviction is very important. As this is in the religion box, why would I bother to submit my important religious belief to some scientific method of Falsifiability?

So to Falsifiability. If there is one belief system that has been nailed lately it's "Atheism" by The Necessity of Atheism which is scientifically refuted in several ways. Let me provide you with 2:
1. You can actually image ghosts by modern radiology. No links on the internet as of yet, but I know it exists as matter of fact.
2. Telepathy is actually possible by quantum computing. Check this out, Seth Raphael:
[youtube][/youtube]
and
[youtube][/youtube]

Some consider "Atheism" to be intellectually bankrupt therefore, very flawed as it is! I think it's too! :study: :D 8-)
I'm cool! :) - Stronger Religion every day! Also by "mathematical Religion", the eternal forms, God closing the door on corrupt humanity, possibly!

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Re: The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #26

Post by Difflugia »

Aetixintro wrote:1. You can actually image ghosts by modern radiology. No links on the internet as of yet, but I know it exists as matter of fact.
Incidentally, this is exactly the quality of the evidence of gods.
Aetixintro wrote:2. Telepathy is actually possible by quantum computing.
Watch the last minute of the James Randi video. Start at 26:00 and watch the entire final minute.
Aetixintro wrote:Some consider "Atheism" to be intellectually bankrupt therefore, very flawed as it is! I think it's too!
You've just made the point that atheism is watching magic tricks and having the presence of mind to ask, "What's the gag?"

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Re: The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #27

Post by bluegreenearth »

[Replying to post 25 by Aetixintro]

Please identify which definition of atheism is referenced in your post.

1) Atheism = Belief that no gods exists.

or

2) Atheism = Lack of belief in gods.

It should be obvious that the second definition of atheism has not been falsified. That definition is the one referenced by the vast majority of atheists when describing their position.

The only way to falsify the first definition is to demonstrate the existence of a god. However, I'll concede that there is insufficient evidence to demonstrate the nonexistence of any gods. At the same time, the given arguments from your post do not demonstrate the existence of a god either.

As for why you would bother to submit a religious belief to some scientific method of falsifiability, I never claimed you could or should. To the best of my understanding, the claim that God exists is unfalsifiable and not testable by any known scientific method. The issue with an unfalsifiable belief is that it cannot be demonstrated as reliably true. To be clear, the unreliability applies only to the unfalsifiable claim itself and not necessarily to the comfort or meaning it might bring those who believe it is true. In this case, the unfalsifiable belief in God might reliably bring you comfort and meaning, but the claim that God exists cannot be demonstrated as reliably true. This is because, even if God happens to not exist but apologetic arguments have been sufficient to convince you otherwise, the unfalsifiable belief in the existence of God would still reliably serve to bring you the perception of comfort and meaning.

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Post #28

Post by Thomas123 »

25 Agree with thine adversary quickly, whiles thou art in the way with him; lest at any time the adversary deliver thee to the judge,

I have some empathy for Aetixintro's point of view here. I have often felt a sense of bankrupt redundancy within theist/nontheist exchanges. It made me consider the wisdom of the above Matthew 5 recommendation. Isn't this confrontational dialogue merely a case of 'handbags at dawn'.

I take the analogy of a builder and a draughtsman undertaking a construction project together. The vision and the reality combined. I am reading about Enlil and Enki at the moment. Surely cooperation and cross referencing is the way to go here.

A belief system is energized by scientific discovery and the sincere pursuit of insight into the spiritual aspects of our existences should stimulate rational and scientific enquiry.

There is more ying and yang here than a black and white polarisation, in my view.

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Re: The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #29

Post by Aetixintro »

I'm cool! :) - Stronger Religion every day! Also by "mathematical Religion", the eternal forms, God closing the door on corrupt humanity, possibly!

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Re: The Necessity of Falsifiability in Belief Formation

Post #30

Post by bluegreenearth »

The author of "The Necessity of Atheism" defined atheism as the belief that no gods exist. This is not the perspective of most modern atheists as explained in my previous post. I'm not entirely sure what you are attempting to demonstrate by citing this out-dated text. It would appear at the surface to be a straw-man unless I'm misunderstanding your point. Please clarify.

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