Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

[historia]

Early polls (137 days before the election) show Biden leading. But who wins comes November?

[koko]

The national view on Biden's mental fitness:





It sure is a lot better than their view on Trump's obvious lack of mental fitness. One thing's for sure, Biden never stood by doing nothing as 140,000 American died like Trump has done while the latter has attempted to justify himself at every opportunity.

[bjs1]

[koko]

AgnosticBoy wrote:
As an independent I can honestly say that I dislike Trump's character but not so much his policies. The media makes the mistake of focusing on his character ...

I agree with you to some extent on this, especially his FAILED policy towards the corona crisis.

Countries such as Vietnam (population 97 million) and Japan (127 million) have suffered far fewer deaths. This because of resourceful and intelligent leadership. But the USA which claims to have the world's best medical coverage has the highest death rate. This because of the ineptitude and incompetence of the Trump regime. I do not see so much as a word of criticism from Fox or from the rest of the supposedly "liberal" media. If the media were to speak the truth about that incompetence and compare it with the rest of the world, this would do a great deal towards insuring a defeat for Trump and a victory for America in the election to come.

[AgnosticBoy]

[AgnosticBoy]

[Replying to koko in post #71]
Actually, the week long ad may've worked if you consider that having only 56% Americans thinking that you're mentally fit is a BAD thing. That means close to half of the country has no confidence in your thinking and judgement. Perhaps Biden's poll numbers would've been higher (upwards towards 80% given his long time experience in government) had it not been for Trump's campaign exposing Biden's cognitive impairment.

Now Trump only appears smart when it comes to the economy since he has some business experience. He's also good with messaging and with the optics of things. But beyond those two areas, I'm sure he's not so bright and he's getting a lot of his cues from Fox News reporters and other prominent Republicans. I've always said he's not a good leader but rather he is a good manager and I say that because others are running a lot of things for him (but of course he gets the credit).

[historia]

[historia]

Perhaps Biden's poll numbers would've been higher (upwards towards 80% given his long time experience in government) had it not been for Trump's campaign exposing Biden's cognitive impairment.

No need to speculate, as we have those numbers:

A Washington Post-ABC News poll May 31 asked whether each candidate "has the mental sharpness it takes to serve effectively as president."

Biden recorded 51% yes, 43% no. Trump recorded 46% yes, 52% no.

A Fox News poll July 19 asked whether each candidate "has the intelligence to serve effectively as president."

Biden recorded 51% yes, 36% no. Trump recorded 42% yes, 52% no.

In other words, the polling hasn't changed much at all, despite this ad campaign.

This does illustrate a problem the Trump campaign faces, though. The avenues of attack they have on Biden are areas where Trump is also weak or even weaker.

[historia]

[Replying to historia in post #1]

Okay, we're now 100 days from the election -- a milestone, of sorts, in all presidential elections.

The polls haven't changed much in the past month since we started this thread. Biden is still ahead by 8-9 points:



According to the Real Clear Politics polling averages, if the election were held today, the result would look like this:



Nevertheless, most of the people participating here (7-4) think Trump is likely to win.

[koko]

@historia


It is clear that Trump's campaign in which he tried to project Biden as suffering from dementia failed.

However, the polls data is not accurate as it only shows potential voters, not the amount of votes that will be counted. This because southern states and others suppress many votes by having few voting booths in the ghettos, displacing voting facilities, or unfairly disqualifying black and other minority voters. Thus, the polls do not show how many votes will be counted.

Because of the cheating, it is likely that Trump will "win" again.

[historia]

It shows the folly of thinking that someone will win based on current polling. Polls can and do change. I'd even argue that a prediction or campaigning should not be based solely on polls because polls are not always right.

This point is certainly well taken. Polls are not predictions, they can and do change, and they are subject to error. That is particularly true at this stage in the election. By Labor Day, the polling average tends to more accurately reflect the final result.

But what are the alternatives?

The posts in this thread that make a prediction using something other than polls appear to rely heavily on subjective assessments of the candidates or speculation about what each candidate will do. These are not particularly rigorous, and seem prone to confirmation bias.

We might look instead at some of the models out there that take into account 'fundamentals' -- i.e., structural factors such as the state of the economy -- to predict the election. There is certainly something to these, as there are some swing voters who appear to vote for the guy in charge when things are going well or the challenger when things are not going well. Trump was doing well in these until the events of this year sent his fortunes south.

Presidential approval is another option, but again, Trump's fortunes here are not good, as his approval is quite low.